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October 8, 2007, 7:04 am

Leopard’s Impact on Apple: $240 Million in Q4, Says Analyst

picture-38.jpgWith three weeks left before the promised ship date of OS X Leopard, the long-awaited and much-delayed sixth major update of Apple’s (AAPL) flagship Macintosh operating system, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster is already calculating its impact on the company’s revenue stream.

In a note to clients issued this morning, Munster observes that OS X Tiger, Leopard’s predecessor, was also released at the end of the first month of a fiscal quarter (April 29, 2005 vs. Oct. 26, 2007). He writes:

At that time, the OS X installed base was 12 million and Tiger sales added $125 million to the quarter. The Mac OS X installed base is now approximately 23 million, so we expect Leopard to add approximately $240 million to the Dec. 2007 quarter. This assumes similar uptake rates to the Tiger launch, which saw 15% of the user base upgrade in just 6 weeks (eventually 66% of the user base upgraded to Tiger).

Looking ahead to the next Macworld, Steve Jobs’ favorite venue for announcing new products, Munster anticipates one of two possiblities:

  • a multi-touch PDA slightly larger than an iPhone (which some are calling the new Newton)
  • an ultra-portable Mac that’s smaller than the smallest MacBook (which AppleInsider has dubbed the ThinBook)

“If Apple launches a new product at MacWorld in January,” Munster writes, “we believe it will likely fall into one of these two categories.”

Very keep up informative information about MAc World, nice unit keep up the good work

Posted By dex : May 5, 2008 8:04 pm

Doubling the estimate for leopard, because the OSX istalled base is double, doesn’t work because the G3 and part of the G4 portion of the base will not be able to run it. I would guess maybe 20% better than tiger.

Posted By Gary, winnipeg, mb : October 9, 2007 8:46 pm

You’ve got to love fanboys from each camp defending each company as if it was their own mother.

Posted By Mr.NotaFanBoy : October 9, 2007 9:47 am

Is this the same analyst for PJ who said that Apple sold 500k iPhones in the first weekend and then had to backtrack when it was only like 146k activations? Why do people still listen to him? Just because he’s on Power Lunch and uses phrases like “Game Changer”?

Posted By Tristan, Bethesda, MD : October 8, 2007 11:30 pm

Mr. Bill’s comments are the most moronic that I’ve ever heard of. Vista put OSX to shame? That shows you’re just another dullard who has never used a Mac. Most ppl said they’re (Macs) crap and they’ve never used them. Very smart thing to do.

Posted By Jebb, Jurong, Singapore : October 8, 2007 9:37 pm

“Vista puts OSX to shame. Apple is a novelty act.”

Mr. Bill: You must have never worked with OSX - it’s no novelty act. After years of Windows, I now actually enjoy being in front of my computer. I now relay this info to everyone I work with - because my quality of worklife has become almost enjoyable!

Just admit it… It’s very simple - it’s a better OS.

Posted By Lawrence Hastings, NYC, NY : October 8, 2007 8:05 pm

Vista puts OSX to shame. Apple is a novelty act.

Posted By Mr. Bill : October 8, 2007 7:45 pm

“A million-plus phones sold isn’t exactly “turning the cell phone business on its ear.” Let’s see them sustain it for a device with a $300 - $600 price tag. Sure the early adopters and Apple fans ate it up. Let’s see them sustain these sales through multiple generations with several competing devices offering similar (and in some case better) functionality. Apple is about to find out that cell phones are a competely different game than iPods. Talk to me when they sell tens of millions of devices, not one million.”

Dan, I agree that one million sales of the iPhone may not be a revolution in the cell phone industry. However, Apple reached the one million mark FASTER THAN ANY OTHER CELL PHONE. In addition, the first million was largely at the $599 price tag. If you don’t think Apple will sell tens of millions of these things over the next few years, you are fooling yourself.

Posted By Bryan, Dallas, TX : October 8, 2007 7:19 pm

Well the truth is it does look like 10/26 is the release date. There have been a lot of rumors posted on the apple watch site. Gene is probably just going along with the educated guessors. Apple has yet to declare a “Gold Master” Then they have to burn, pack, and ship

Posted By David Martorano, Malibu, CA : October 8, 2007 7:13 pm

““Much Delayed” You really do go out of your way to be controversial, don’t you? 4 months is nothing - Vista was *years* late, and a shadow of the originally envisioned features. At what did Apple do during that time? Oh yeah - turned the whole cell phone business on it’s ear.”

A million-plus phones sold isn’t exactly “turning the cell phone business on its ear.” Let’s see them sustain it for a device with a $300 - $600 price tag. Sure the early adopters and Apple fans ate it up. Let’s see them sustain these sales through multiple generations with several competing devices offering similar (and in some case better) functionality. Apple is about to find out that cell phones are a competely different game than iPods. Talk to me when they sell tens of millions of devices, not one million.

Posted By Dan, Boston, MA : October 8, 2007 2:40 pm

Wow,
you “open-minded”, “think out of the box” apple people can’t take any criticism. We all know Vista was delayed for a longer period of time. Lighten up its just a computer and just an operating system.

Posted By Jack Walsh, Chicago, Illinois : October 8, 2007 12:09 pm

So…Did Gene just let the genie out of the bottle? Oct 26th is it? Hadn’t heard THAT yet.

Posted By gwhiz : October 8, 2007 11:17 am

“Much Delayed” You really do go out of your way to be controversial, don’t you? 4 months is nothing - Vista was *years* late, and a shadow of the originally envisioned features. At what did Apple do during that time? Oh yeah - turned the whole cell phone business on it’s ear.

Posted By TimB Houston, TX : October 8, 2007 10:57 am

Much Delayed? I wonder what adjectives the author used for the seemingly infinite delay of Longhorn, er…Vista?

Posted By Scott, St. Petersburg Florida : October 8, 2007 10:37 am

Is four months “much delayed”? I think not.

Posted By r schaaf, new york, ny : October 8, 2007 10:36 am

Wow, no negative comment about Apple today?

Posted By Jim, Rotterdam, The Netherlands : October 8, 2007 9:27 am
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Philip Elmer-DeWittSilicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
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