Macworld 2008: How can Steve Jobs top the iPhone?
The Macworld Conference & Expo, Silicon Valley’s largest technology trade show, opens Monday. But the moment everyone is waiting for comes Tuesday morning, when Steve Jobs makes his annual keynote address at San Francisco’s Moscone Center.
Jobs has set a high bar for himself. At Macworld 2006, he introduced the first Intel (INTC)-based Macs — sparking a burst of sales that nearly doubled Apple’s (AAPL) market share from roughly 4% to something approaching 8% (link). At Macworld 2007 he unveiled not just the all-but-forgotten Apple TV, but also the iPhone — a device that in nearly everybody’s book turned out to be the machine of the year.
What can Jobs do to top that?
There’s no shortage of speculation. The Apple rumor machinery has grown so elaborate that for the second year in a row, Ars Technica’s John Siracusa has published a keynote Bingo card (available in PDF format here and in iPhone format here), with boxes to be filled in as Jobs makes his announcements, introduces his guests and trots out his trademark rhetorical flourishes. (The rules of the game are spelled out here.)
Nobody has yet shouted out “Bingo!” in middle of a Steve Jobs presentation — a moment brilliantly anticipated in IBM’s buzzword Bingo TV ad (link) — but this could be the year.
Some of Siracusa’s boxes are obviously more important than others. A couple (Mac Pro and Xserve) were preemptively filled last week, and there are a few key possibilities that he missed. Watch especially for:
- A Skinny MacBook. Probably the leading candidate for Jobs’ one-more-thing moment, it’s already been named — Macbook air, thin, nano and mini — and imagined in PhotoShop (see here, for example) by bloggers who should know better. Likely specs: 12 to 13-inch. LED backlit screen, under 3 lbs., half as thick as today’s MacBooks, 32, 64 or even 128GB solid-state flash drive, priced around $1,600.
- iPhone updates. A bump in capacity from 8GB to 16GB and maybe 32GB is expected, as well as a preview of the software developers toolkit (SDK) promised for February; we might even get a few demos from developers, like EA, who were seeded with the SDK last fall. A 3G iPhone and a Newton-type tablet are reported to be in the works, but not yet ready for prime time.
- Movie rentals. This is the item Hollywood is following most closely. It’s been widely reported that Fox and Disney are likely to make movies available on iTunes for overnight rental (at $3 to $5 for 24 hours) or for purchase for roughly the price of a shrink-wrapped DVD. If, as rumored, Paramount, Lions Gate and Warner Bros join them, the flood of fresh video content could breath new life into the Apple TV. (The Associated Press reported Sunday that Netflix (NFLX), anticipating such a move by Apple, will offer unlimited monthly video streaming.)
- DRM-free Music. Having famously championed the cause with his February 2007 Thoughts on Music memo, it would be surprising — and disappointing — if Jobs did not use this opportunity to announce a significant expansion of the DRM-free offerings in the iTunes Store, especially after the last of the major labels announced last week that they were putting their music on Amazon.com (AMZN) without copy protection.
- Microsoft (MSFT) Office 2008. No surprises here, since the reviews are already in, but an excuse for what should be the most lavish after-hours party of the show.
- The Beatles. It’s about time. Just in case, Yoko Ono’s John Lennon Educational Tour Bus mobile recording studio is making the trip from its Las Vegas unveiling at the Consumer Electronics Show to be at Macworld. A few hours after Jobs’ speech, there’s a press reception in the bus that’s co-sponsored by Apple.
You already see the flashbulbs popping, right? But is it enough? Apple’s marketing machinery is like a shark that must keep swimming or die. Even if nearly every square on the Bingo card were to be filled on Tuesday, would Jobs have delivered the kind of innovation and buzz the faithful have come to expect?
And then there’s Wall Street to consider. Apple was the high-flying tech stock of year, its share prices having more than doubled in 2007. But as a CNNMoney headline put it on Friday, “What’ve you done for me lately?” The stock fell nearly 30 points over the last two weeks, which could be taken as a measure of traders’ uncertaintly. (Or it could just be a well-timed pause to set up the Macworld effect, the short-term bump tech share prices often enjoy after a Steve Jobs’ keynote.)
No matter how high the bar, Jupiter Research analyst Michael Gartenberg is confident that Jobs will clear it. “This is a company that thinks in terms of strategy,” he says. “Do I think they’ll deliver something as disruptive as the iPhone? No. You don’t achieve that kind of disruption every week; it would be tantamount to getting into a whole new industry. But somehow Jobs always manages to meet expectations, even if the expectations are different.”
To find out how different, tune in Tuesday for Fortune senior writer Jon Fortt live blogging from the keynote at fortune.com/bigtech, video coverage from CNNMoney.com and our post-keynote analysis here on Tuesday afternoon.
How about they top it with a nice thin Macbook Air? Or a Wireless NAS server? Or Apple TV Take 2? Movie rental from ALL the big guys? 6 million songs in iTunes? 20,000 iPhones sold a DAY? All in all, NOT a disappointing Macworld.
i hope they wont get too busy with new products, rather, fix usability and functionality issues on their hardware, particularly the iPhone. for one, the inability to send SMS messages on the iPhone to multiple recipients is one example. I also wonder why Apple put lousy speakers on the iPhone and the MacBook Pro? Meanwhile, in Leopard, there are little things they should consider updating such as fixing the time issue when you have bootcamp.
New products and innovations are always a welcome. Likewise, updates to their products’ usability and functionality are definitely as important.
maybe they should make something more familiar and regionally customisible.i mean just sell an ordinary apple with low price..and the customer could pick what kind of featues they want including the specification,casing design,and applications..
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How about a MacBook that pops two arms and two legs, walks to you in the AM to bring some java?
Posted By Rado. Long Island, NY : January 14, 2008 11:08 am ……
Now this is what I call, INNOVATION!!!! I agree… that would so top the iPhone
We’ve all seen the blog site rumor mills pumping out tons of ideas the past few weeks. I’m not sure why all the “blueprints” look like they are created by six year old. Anyway the truth is, Apple needs to pull a wild card out of their sleeves to really get a “Wow” factor.
Here’s my “Wow” factor. An Apple TV that supports 1080p, has a compression format to allow a huge amount of data storage that uncompresses to a loss less quality, and a price of $299.99.
Apple changed the way we use phones and listen to music, why not change the way we watch digital content?
It’s going to be interesting to see not only what Steve announces, but what people think of as the “key” announcement.
To HL in New York. All Apple’s laptops have 2-button mice–kind of. With two fingers on the track pad, clicking = right clicking. Much better than the garbage second button on my Lenovo from work. Also, two-fingered scrolling–scrolls every window.
my assumption is an update, or hopefully an unveiling of a prototype for the Apple Icar. I haven’t heard anything on it recently, and Microsoft already has their “sync” system availible in the new Ford Lines.
Why are people thinking gaming machine??? Gaming consoles are money losers first of all, money is made by having developers pay for the right to make a game for the console something Apple doesn’t do (lose money on hardware). Second as much as I like Apple the one area they are lousy in is GAMING. Finally the gaming market is about tapped out as it is. Don’t expect any type of PS3, Wii, or Xbox at mac world that’s just silly thinking in my opinion.
Could be bad…
The expectations on Apple are so high it might be hard for Apple to meet all the expectations people have placed on them for this years mac world. I’m actually expecting a quieter mac world then the ones over the past few years, but you never know.
They should develop a 40 inch LCD that has AppleTV built in and a remote with multi-touch.
Simple - Huge
Hmmm…what other tech company gets this much anticipation (good or bad) each year??? I agree with Steve of Cupertino…read something other than headlines, Elmer…Apple is not going under in your lifetime…maybe you should actually try using a Mac to see what you are slamming daily…then read the company’s fundamentals….earnings 35 times the share price…yeah, we should all “boo”…give us all a break and act like someone who writes for a financial periodical.
I’ll be peterved beyond belief if he releases an ipod touch with a bigger hard drive. Its not fair to start off small then a few months later upgrade the drive.
$3 to $5 for a movie rental??? Come on.
Redbox lets you rent dvds for 24 hours for $1 and they have to maintain the kiosks and stock the disks. Apple and the studios would do MUCH more business if they went with $1 for 12- or 24-hour rentals.
My bet is on a more visual handheld gameplayer
Small correction: Apple didn’t unveil the AppleTV at last year’s Macworld — the product just got a name. Apple had pre-announced it in September 2006 under the name “iTV”.
Here’s Fortune’s story about it:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/26/technology/Apple_itv.fortune/index.htm
Don’t read anything into the John Lennon Bus. It’s been at Expo for the past 3 years.
“The stock fell nearly 30 points last week, which could be taken as a measure of investors’ uncertaintly.”
…only if you mean “stock market investors”, not “AAPL investors”. In case you missed it, the markets have had a bad 2008, and Apple has taken it in the shorts with everyone else. Maybe the author should read something other than tech company press releases.
But I forgot, this is ped; he can’t write an article about Apple without pointing out that the company is about to go under. Any minute now. Just wait. Wait for it…
I don’t think the impetus is there to create a game machine - but that would be a stock boost on the short term - and there is talk of it at Apple retail stores (heresay amongst younger employees)
Remember that Apple uses both Nvidia and ATI - one is excellent for graphics rendering, the other is great for gaming.
Also, the 30 inch cinema display can’t be pushed by the iMAC processors - (again according to Apple’s in-store Techs) another area of design in need of revision. These are small ideas though - Like everyone else- I’m sure I’ll find reason celebrate after the Keynote.
Top the iCrap. Easy Build a phone that is truly “revolutionary”.
“A revolutionary, when used as a noun, is a person who either advocates or actively engages in some kind of revolution”
Something i iCrap is not.
SOME RUMORS THAT WE MAY SEE THE IPHONE ON OTHER CARRIERS BY THE END OF 08
I went to my local Apple Store Saturday and tried to get an airport express for my home. The person at the store said that there were no more available in the entire DC region and that there was no chance that any were coming in until after Tuesday. Maybe we finally get an update in home wi-fi?
Best way to top the iPhone without necessarily having a new product would be a better price on the iPhone. The price is preventing more people from filling their pockets with these things. If you want everyone to have an iPhone, you need to make it affordable to everyone.
I’d love to see Apple come out with a portable DVD player that has a screen as large as the others but in a format like the i-Pod where movies can be saved and played from that one device.
How about a MacBook that pops two arms and two legs, walks to you in the AM to bring some java?
What would have the greatest wow factor in 2008? To my mind, it’d be an AppleTV with full 1080p support and a BluRay drive built-in. There’s a potentially huge market for HiDef DVD once the format war concludes, and Apple could strike first with a game-changing device that, if coupled with video rentals via iTunes, streaming video content, and maybe even the ability to rip HD movies onto the hard drive, would be the must-have device to replace obsolete DVD players.
In reference to MFearing’s comment below, I read the new MacBook will be, in fact, all flash memory… very quiet… nice!
Announcement of VOICE DIALING for the iPhone would be most welcome . . . and most shocking (and desirable) would be announcement of THE KILLER APP for this device, which is DICTATION SOFTWARE, perhaps similar to iListen, that would let a user dictate an outdoing Email, that could later be retrieved on a home computer, and then filed or printed . . .
How about GPS capability in the iPhone.
Competitive phones already have it.
Maybe tablet writing capability as well, and voice memo recording if it does not already have it.
To set the record straight, Buzzword Bingo should be credited to the creator of Dilbert, Scott Adams. It first appeared in one of his strips many years ago.
I think this will be the year Job’s disappoints, but that will be ok, as he will come back strong the following year with something cooler. You can’t shock the world every year….
With everything there is to like about the Iphone there are things to hate about it as well. The lack of space on the device because Stevie decided he wanted to go with flash rather than hard disk storage. The deal with the devil they made with the worlds most evil corporate entity on the planet for service. And of course the stupid cat and mouse game they are playing with people who are lawfully unlocking these phones in compliance with the DMCA.
Steve is suddenly one day going to realize that other companies are producing well designed products and taking his business away AGAIN. How quickly Steve forgets how his iphone like tactics drove Apple to the brink of destruction the first time.
Steve if your reading this there are a lot of people who like your products. Put your mega ego in check and let other people handle the details. And stop golfing with the guys over at AT&T!!!!!
I think they need to release a time machine.
I heard through a good source that Apple is going to launch a series of LCD TVs that double as computer monitors. And the top of the Line 42 inch will incorporate a built in Blu Ray player.
What a long way apple gas coming from when the stock was at 12. This is the best company. http://www.ipodprices.info/
How about a *$&%@#$!!!!! right mouse button on the notebooks!!!! Talk about an obvious and ridiculous thing not included and disorienting potential defectors from the bug-ridden world of Windows!!!!
No one seems to be talking about this but I suspect a surprise announcement/deal:
1) Garmin-Apple-Nike shoe
or
2) Garmin-Apple-GM (or some major automotive company)
Offer two new iPhones. One iPhone Express - smaller, lighter iPhone…
And the iPhone Valet, a full featured slightly larger iPhone with at least 32gigs (preferbly 60+gigs),3G broadband connection, Flash Player 9 support.
And voice dial for both…
I also would like to see an all flash laptop. Nearly nstant power up!
Apple should make the best Pocket PC in the world, something the iTouch could have been, but isn’t.
Jobs will launch a mobile “multi-cut” apple-peeler, the faithful will bow and the media will gasp with amazement, proclaiming that it is revolutionary and that apple-peelers will never be the same.
“This is a paradigm-shift” (Munster); “a game-changer” (Wu); Time magazine will proclaim that this is the best thing in coocking since sliced-bread and that it may solve the food crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa and possibly reduce CO2 emissions, drawing praise from Greenpeace and Amnesty International.
The company ROCKS! For style, utilization and quality you can’t beat apple.
As long as Apple can produce a new “zinger” every 12 months, I think you can expect the stock to grow.
But, what is the succesion plan for Apple? Because, as we all know, once jobs moves on the tree will probably wither.
Interesting that they announced a new XServe & MacPro last week. Why didn’t they wait? I think they have something bigger….
The goofy thing that EVERYONE seems to have ignored is the fact that Apple hasn’t updated its monitors in nearly two years. With the Fox deal (and most likely many others) in place, an updated iTV (which Jobs introduced last year as a “hobby,” possibly now with BLu-Ray, a next generation of large OLED-type monitors and an improved speaker system could add a “wow” factor that would quantum dwarf last year’s iPhone announcement
ex ped: Not everyone ignored it. New monitors and no new monitors are both squares on the Bingo card.
It seems silly to expect SO MUCH from it every year. As the article said, you can’t release an iPhone each week. I’d be really happy to see a forward thinking, thin-book that pushes what we expect. Maybe just wi-fi and USB, no DVD or CD drive? All Flash memory. Also, love to see an update for the iPhone and a peek at what’s to come when that SDK is out in the open.
Mark
http://mfearing.wordpress.com/
Apple should make a handheld game machine if they want to top the iphone.
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Silicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
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