There’s growing speculation among Apple (AAPL) watchers that the iPhone software developer’s kit (SDK) that Steve Jobs said he hoped to have ready before the end of February — and is the headliner of the “special event” scheduled for March 6 — may still be in beta and might not arrive until the World Wide Developer’s Conference some time in June.

This would be a surprise, although probably not the “element of surprise” that COO Tim Cook invoked when he declined to answer questions about the SDK at Wednesday’s Goldman Sachs symposium. (see here)

What’s the source of this speculation? Some of it is pure gossip, like the item the usually reliable Erica Sadun at TUAW passed along earlier this month:

Speaking of the rumor trickle, the big one that I’m hearing right now is about big SDK delays — perhaps all the way to WWDC (which makes us think that the big Apple show coming up may not be for the iPhone). It sounds like putting together a public SDK, documented and tested for third-party use, is a huge, huge project, and that Apple is busy hiring people to make this happen. (link)

Some of it seems to be coming, albeit second-hand, from programmers who actually laid hands on preliminary versions of the SDK, like this report in MacRumors Thursday (pointing out an item in the Italian website setteB.it):

SetteB.it is not a typical rumor source, but this information is consistent with earlier Page 2 rumors and direct observations we’ve heard from individuals who have seen early versions of the SDK, saying that it appeared to offer just the “bare essentials” at that time. (link)

Some of it is just tea-leaf reading, like Ted Landau’s close scrutiny of Apple’s iPhone Software Roadmap invitation in The Mac Observer.

Why use the word “roadmap” at all? Why not simply say: “Please join us to learn about the iPhone SDK” or “Please join us for the unveiling of the iPhone SDK”? (link)

Some of it is Fake Steve Jobs spinning fiction, as he usually does, but often around a kernel of truth:

Look, I’ve gotta admit, I’m pretty disappointed with the developer tools engineers. These guys have really let me down. We were supposed to have the iPhone SDK out by February and let’s be honest — it ain’t gonna happen. … Damn you, engineers! If I could run this company without you, I would do it in a heartbeat! We’d have nothing but PR and marketing and advertising people. (link)

Whatever SDK beta meme’s provenance, some investors have already figured it into their planning. The smart money at TMO’s Apple Finance Board is betting that come March 6, as Tommo_UK puts it, …

… the big news will be software partners signing up, big names like IBM, SAP, Salesforce, Microsoft, etc.. some with demos etc. A beta of the SDK will be released to allow smaller developers to play, but it will run in emulation mode on the Mac rather than the iPhone.

The main SDK will be released concurrent with a new iPhone or iPhone OS 2.0 instead of 1.1.6 or whatever, and at that point the entire development community, rather than just the “chosen few” keynote partners will be able to write and sell applications for the iPhone. (link)

UPDATE: One more datapoint. Jeremy Horwitz at iLounge, citing unnamed “sources familiar” with Apple’s SDK plans, has published an authoritative-sounding rundown of how Apple plans to restrict third-party developers writing apps for the iPhone and iPod touch. (Apple would have to approve all apps, for example, and would prevent interfacing directly with dock-based accessories.) He adds that his sources say this about what’s coming next week:

Apple will use the March 6 event to tout the benefits of the SDK to selected media, analysts, and developers, releasing an incomplete, “beta” version of the kit that was originally promised for February. The actual kit will now ship in June, coinciding with Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference event in San Francisco. (see here)

UPDATE 2.0: Apple released beta version of its SDK today. The final release is due in June. See here.

Even before Apple (AAPL) launched the iPhone, says American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu, he suspected the device would have “mediocre” corporate e-mail support — stemming in part from Microsoft’s (MSFT) “lukewarm support” of Exchange on the Mac platform. (After all, Redmond has its Windows franchise to defend.)

That key weakness is likely to be addressed at the iPhone special event scheduled for next Thursday, according to Wu’s industry and developer sources. And in a report to clients today, he handcaps the ways that might happen:

• from internal development (most likely),
• third-parties including MSFT (next likely) with its ActiveSync technology,
• or RIMM Blackberry Connect (possible but less likely)
• or a combination of two or more.

“We do not think it will be easy to replicate the robustness of Blackberry push e-mail,” he adds, “but nonetheless, we view improvements as positive. Other enhancements we are picking up including improved security, better support of VPNs, and enterprise applications such as CRM.”

The iPhone has been very good to O2 in the U.K.

Apple’s (AAPL) British-accented partner reported yesterday that the iPhone has become its fastest selling device, helping the U.K. division of Telefonica (TEF) achieve its strongest quarter on record. Sales were up 9.5 percent in the last quarter of 2007 — the first to show the effects of the iPhone. O2 did not provide sales figures for the iPhone alone, but it did say that the device helped add 483,000 customers and 276,000 contracts to its roster.

According to O2, the iPhone has the highest satisfaction rating and the lowest return rate of any phone in its lineup. Moreover, iPhone users generate roughly 30 percent more revenue per user than the carrier’s average customer.

O2 also announced today that starting March 14, it will be offering the iPhone for sale in Ireland — only the fifth country authorized to carry the phone (after the U.S., U.K., France and Germany). For pricing details, see the Irish Times’ report here.

In remarks yesterday at a Goldman Sachs technology symposium, Apple COO Tim Cook said his company will be cutting more deals in both Europe and Asia to reach its sales target of 10 million iPhones in 2008. See Apple’s COO calms the waters.

It’s perhaps a measure of how badly Apple (AAPL) investors needed to hear from someone — anyone — high up at the company, that all it took to move the stock nearly 4% in after-hours trading on Wednesday was for COO Tim Cook to answer a few questions.

The stock had fallen more than 80 points since December and has been getting pummeled in recent weeks by rumors of falling component orders and reports from bearish analysts — chief among them Bernstein Research’s Toni Sacconaghi, who estimated last week that Apple would miss its 2008 target of 10 million iPhones by more than 2 million units. With nobody from Apple stepping up to speak to these issues, the stock had nowhere to go but down.

But yesterday afternoon Cook talked for 45 minutes before at packed house at the Goldman Sachs Technology Investment Symposium, answering the questions that had been piling up — about inventory levels, iPod sales, unlocked iPhones, the timing of price cuts and the growth potential of the Mac.

There wasn’t much news — for the most part, he reiterated the company line — but for investors there was clearly something reassuring about hearing Apple’s strategy laid out clearly, calmly and for the most part without hype. That is to say, by someone other than Steve Jobs.

The main news to come out of the session was Cook’s repeated assurances that Apple is committed to hitting that 10 million iPhone target in 2008 and will do whatever it takes to make it — even if it means offering the iPhone to multiple carriers in some countries and selling unlocked phones. “We’re not married to any business model,” Cook said.

He also described the surprisingly large number of hacked iPhones turning up around the world as a good problem to have. When users are “stepping over each other” to get to a device, it’s a sign of pent-up worldwide demand.

He touched on most of the hot topics, saying among other things …

• There is “huge headroom” in the Macintosh market
• Apple TV is still a “nichey” product but has “enormous opportunity”
• iPod shuffle sales were down 17% globally last Q, thus the price cut
• 40% of iPod sales in U.S. are to new customers; that doesn’t feel like a saturated market to him
• The iPod touch is the beginning of a new mobile platform
• The $200 iPhone price cut last September was in part to grow the user base and attract developers
• No more detail about the SDK until next week to keep “the element of surprise”

Nothing terribly surprising there. But for some investors tuning in to the webcast, what he had to say was less important than how he said it.

“I was just impressed as I could be,” wrote one listener on TMO’s influential Apple Finance Board. “I am always haunted by the vulnerability of Apple’s shareholders like myself if something should happen to Steve Jobs. For the first time, listening yesterday to Tim Cook made me feel confident that in him was a person who could ably step in if Jobs fell off the earth.” (link)

You can hear a replay of the webcast here. For more analysis, got to Techmeme here.

“Some exciting enterprise features.” Those were the magic words in the e-mail that Apple (AAPL) analysts and journalists received Wednesday from the company’s media events department.

The invitation for a March 6 “special event,” illustrated with a map and directions to the company’s Cupertino campus, was music to the ears of software developers, who’ve been itching to get their hands on the SDK (software developers kit) ever since Steve Jobs promised it back in October.

It’s not clear whether the SDK will be released that day or merely promoted to the press, but clearly the thing is close to ready. Apple’s share prices jumped a point or so on the news.

What caught my eye, however, were those four magic words — and the blue box on the invitation roadmap labeled ENTERPRISE. The one thing that’s kept me, and many of my colleagues, from buying an iPhone (rather than, in my case, borrowing one) has been the reluctance of our IT department to support any mobile that doesn’t support Microsoft Exchange Server. (They also insist on a way to remotely kill a lost or stolen phone, but one thing at a time.) A smartphone (or a smart iPod) that doesn’t deliver my office e-mail just doesn’t cut it.

That’s what “enterprise” means to me. And if Apple or one of its partners delivers it next Thursday, I’ll finally be ready to plunk down my $399.

For more on the special event, see the traffic on Techmeme (here) and the discussion on TMO’s Apple Finance Board (here).

The iPhone software developers kit (SDK) promised for February may not have materialized, but Feb. 26 turned out to be a busy day for Apple(AAPL) nonetheless. The big news was the refresh of the MacBook and MacBook Pro lines (see here), but there were these items as well:

Frequent flier:Morgan Stanley’s Kathryn Huberty rooted through Apple’s 2007 10K and discovered that the company reimbursed its peripatetic CEO $550,000 in airline expenses for the December quarter — three times the average over the previous six quarters (see here). She cites these expenses — presumably incurred on the Gulfstream jet the company gave Jobs in 2000 — as a reason to buy the stock. A better reason would be if Jobs brought home signed iPhone deals with new carriers in Europe and Asia.

iPhone 1.1.4:The latest firmware update for the iPhone and iPod touch, released Tuesday afternoon, was a big one (162.1 megabytes) that except for unspecified bug fixes seems to have added zero functionality. The prevailing theory is that the update is setting the stage for the release of the SDK some time in the weeks ahead.

iTunes rising:The NPD Group reported Tuesday that iTunes has edged aside Best Buy (BBY) and Target(TGT) to become the No. 2 music retailer in the U.S., behind only Wal-Mart (see Apple’s press release here). With 50 million customers and more than 4 billion songs sold so far, Apple will likely overtake Wal-Mart (WMT) before the end of the year, according to Russ Crupnick, NPD’s president of music (see here).

For once the rumor mills had it (mostly) right: the new lineup of MacBook Pros that many had expected Steve Jobs to introduce at Macworld last month did indeed arrive today, Feb. 26, as anticipated.

What was not anticipated, until this weekend, was that the MacBook line, which had been given a speed bump late last year, would also get refreshed.

The main headlines are that Apple (AAPL) has installed the latest family of Intel Core Duo 2 Penryn processors across its entire notebook line and given the MacBook Pros the new Multi-Touch trackpad introduced in the MacBook Air, with gesture support for pinch, rotate and swipe and all that good stuff.

All the machines also got larger hard drives and all but the low-end MacBook come installed with 2 GB RAM standard.

Otherwise, the machines look and feel the same. The giant trackpads that Apple devotees had spent hours photoshopping onto the MacBook form factor did not materialize.

The new price points:

• 2.1 GHz, 13-inch white MacBook, 1 GB RAM, 120 GB hard drive: $1,099
• 2.4 GHz, 13-inch white MacBook, 2 GB RAM, 160 GB hard drive: $1,299
• 2.4 GHz, 13-inch black MacBook, 2 GB RAM, 250 GB hard drive: $1,499
• 2.4 GHz, 15-inch MacBook Pro, 2 GB RAM, 200 GB hard drive: $1,999
• 2.5 GHz, 15-inch MacBook Pro: 2 GB RAM, 250 GB hard drive: $2,499
• 2.5 GHz, 17-inch MacBook Pro: 2 GB RAM, 250 GB hard drive: $2,799

All five systems are available to order immediately from the online Apple Store. For more detail, see Apple’s press release here.

Although Wall Street seemed unimpressed (the stock was down more than 3 points in early trading, but recovered and ended the day down about half a point), the reaction from users has been mostly positive. “Looks like a solid update to me,” reads a typical response on Ars Technica’s Infinite Loop. “For the base model at the same price of the previous one, you get double video memory, 80 GBs of HDD extra and a faster processor just 0.1GHz less than the top of the line model. And of course the new touchpad. Not bad at all in my book.”

One slightly sour note: the little white Apple remote that used to come bundled with the MacBooks and MacBook Pros, now has to be purchased separately for $19.99.

Michael Arrington’s post today on Techcrunch describing the promise of an iPhone-only social network — one that, among other things, could tell you where your friends are and what they’re up to at any time — hits a topic that a Swedish ex-pat named Peter S. Magnusson nailed back on July 1, 2007, three days after the iPhone was released.

His theory: Apple (AAPL) missed a huge opportunity with the original iPhone because, at a fundamental level, Steve Jobs doesn’t understand social networks.

Eight months later, there’s no evidence out of Cupertino that anything has changed on that front, and Magnusson’s thesis is as relevant today as it was then. You can read his original piece here. Below the fold: our July 3 take on it, with a link to the spirited discussion it sparked.

The iPhone’s software developer’s kit (SDK) was supposed to be the answer to the device’s many shortcomings: no corporate e-mail support, no cut-and-paste, no native games, etc.

Now, with only five business days before Apple’s (AAPL) self-imposed February deadline, Arik Hesseldahl reports in Byte of the Apple that it ain’t gonna happen — at least not on deadline. He writes:

I’m hearing from one source that its going to be late. I’m not yet hearing any reasons why, and it’s sounding like the official release date could slide by anywhere from one to three weeks. (link)

Hesseldahl, it should be noted, was one of the Businessweek reporters who broke the SDK story back in October, one day before Steve Jobs announced that it was coming in the Hot News section of Apple’s website.

So what’s the hang-up? Hesseldahl doesn’t speculate, except to say that the situation is “fluid” and that there are “a lot of moving parts to something this complex.”

But to get a feel for what’s involved, you don’t have to look any further than Jobs’ Oct. 17 letter, the one that starts:

Let me just say it: We want native third party applications on the iPhone, and we plan to have an SDK in developers’ hands in February.

Jobs goes on to say:

It will take until February to release an SDK because we’re trying to do two diametrically opposed things at once–provide an advanced and open platform to developers while at the same time protect iPhone users from viruses, malware, privacy attacks, etc. This is no easy task. … As our phones become more powerful, these malicious programs will become more dangerous. And since the iPhone is the most advanced phone ever, it will be a highly visible target. Some companies are already taking action. Nokia, for example, is not allowing any applications to be loaded onto some of their newest phones unless they have a digital signature that can be traced back to a known developer. While this makes such a phone less than “totally open,” we believe it is a step in the right direction. We are working on an advanced system which will offer developers broad access to natively program the iPhone’s amazing software platform while at the same time protecting users from malicious programs. We think a few months of patience now will be rewarded by many years of great third party applications running on safe and reliable iPhones. (link)

If Cupertino’s best developers haven’t cracked that nut in the four and a half months since, it could take them more than Hesseldahl’s one to three extra weeks. We’ll find out soon enough.

News out of overseas chip factories this week cuts both ways for Apple (AAPL), the world’s No. 3 buyer of NAND flash memory.

The report getting the most attention — and stirring the most controversy — is the one published Wednesday by iSuppli Corp. Based on what chip makers are telling it, iSuppli is cutting its outlook for revenue growth in NAND flash memory (the chips used in MP3 players and USB drives) from the 27% it had expected for 2008 to “single digits.”

“NAND suppliers are likely to go into the red in the first quarter,” warns Nam Hyung Kim, iSuppli’s chief memory analyst, “and are not likely to recover in the second.”

Grim tidings for the chip makers, no doubt.

The controversy comes from what the iSuppli report had to say about Apple’s role in the shortfall:

In an early warning sign of consumer weakness, Apple Inc. has slashed its 2008 NAND order forecast significantly and has informed suppliers that its demand growth will slow in 2008 compared to 2007, according to iSuppli sources. … Before word of Apple’s warning, iSuppli had predicted the company’s NAND flash purchases would rise by 32.2 percent this year, helping drive significant market growth. (link)

Sounds pretty ominous, and the paragraph may have played a role in shaving a couple points off Apple’s share price on Thursday.

But several commentators have taken issue with the use of the word “slash” to describe Apple’s order forecast. As Tom Krazit at CNET points out, Apple’s demand for flash is still growing rapidly, despite the broader slowdown in consumer spending. In fact, by his calculation, Apple is still planning to purchase 27 percent more flash memory this year than last year — just not the 32 percent iSuppli had expected.(link)

[UPDATE: Krazit now says that his calculations were wrong. "This was an error on my part," he writes in a corrected blog. "The 27 percent increase in flash memory spending in 2008 was iSuppli's previous expectation for the global market, not the revised expectation for Apple's spending. Right now, iSuppli doesn't have an estimate of how much Apple plans to spend on flash memory this year, and won't until more data becomes available."]

Moreover, what’s bad for memory makers may actually be good for Apple. Chip prices were already plummeting (4GB flash memory fell more than 73 percent since last August, according to IDG), and a memory glut could drive them even lower. As Richard Hyde writes in Seeking Alpha:

Here is where the story gets interesting for Apple. Not only do they reap the benefit of huge decreased pricing, the difference between the 8GB and 16GB modules is only $11, even though the iPhone models differ by $100. Similar savings are seen in the 16GB and 32GB iPod touch. (link)

No wonder Apple can afford to cut the price of the iPod shuffle from $79 to $49. If it wanted to drive up demand, it could probably afford to cut prices all across the iPod and iPhone product lines.

Below the fold, iSuppli’s breakdown of the chip makers’ NAND revenue market shares for 2007.