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February 12, 2008, 7:24 am

Report: Macbook Air will grab 16% of Mac market

macbook-air.jpgInterest in the lightweight MacBook Air is high, but sales are modest, according to a survey of Apple (AAPL) resellers conducted by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.

“Customers are more curious but less willing to buy the MacBook Air than they were the original MacBook,” Munster writes in a report to clients issued this morning. “We believe that 16% of Macs by the end of calendar year 2008 will be MacBook Air.”

Munster and his team spoke to 20 Apple specialists on Monday. The impression they got was that MacBook Air sales are coming over and above the MacBook’s, and not cannibalizing Apple’s most popular model. He writes:

According to the resellers we spoke to, the MacBook Air has a smaller but separate target market than the MacBook. Most described the market as a group that prioritizes mobility and is less price sensitive than the MacBook market. One reseller referred to MacBook Air as the first “Executive Mac.”

Munster expects Mac sales overall to fall somewhat after the white-hot Christmas quarter, which is in line with the guidance Apple gave in its last quarterly earnings report. He’s modeling an 18 percent drop. However, the resellers he spoke with say on average that Mac sales are flat — which if it holds up would be very good news for the company. Specifically, 35 percent of those surveyed said Mac sales are up, 45 percent said they were down and 20 percent expected them to be flat for the March quarter.

“Our January was very strong,” one reseller told Munster, “and February is starting out strong. Our March quarter will likely be better than our December quarter.”

Munster notes, however, that the salespeople he spoke with have a better grasp on product interest and day-to-day sales than they do the big picture of the business.

Well, I’m a road warrior, and I didn’t care about the price considering what it DID have - a decent processor, lightweight, THIN, wireless, etc. So I bought one. Yes it is a niche product. If you think Jobs was stupid enough to think this would outsell the MB and MBP, c’mon! This is meant for people like myself.

Am I happy with it? It is SUPERB - for what it is. The MBP it isn’t IF you are worried about ports, no expandability, need for an extra battery, etc. But how many of you REALLY use an extra battery? And how many have mre than ONE thing plugged into the USB port at a time?

For ME, it was worth every penny. Apple has ANOTHER winner here. It’s not going to be for everyone, and it’s not going to sell like the other two models. But that’s not the goal here. The goal was to fill a need for portability and mobility like no other, and Apple accomplished just that.

Posted By gmk, chicago, IL : February 20, 2008 10:34 am

Well, it seems to be not quite right:
http://www.maconair.com/macbook_air_as_lightweight_as_sales
the Air is said o be attracting noticeably less buyers than the original MacBook.

Posted By Lucy Davis, Dallas TX : February 20, 2008 5:44 am

I’ll chime in because I’m actually the target buyer who hasn’t bought — yet. When I was doing conferences and speaking a lot, I’d do three weeks in Europe with one roll aboard and a briefcase and would have paid any price for a system like the Air. The convenience of the Internet has allowed me to travel less, but should I be called back on the road, I’ll get a MacBook Air immediately. For those who have trouble valuing Apple systems, here’s the clue: Apple releases new software that adds value to existing purchased hardware; Microsoft (eventually) releases software to drive the purchase of new hardware. Big difference.

Posted By Ashley Grayson, Los Angeles, CA : February 12, 2008 9:25 pm

quote”This is truly an assidine prediction ! The MBA will grab a very small part of Mac users as it is overpriced and underfeatured.”

I am not sure how you get there but as far as I have seen it is priced aggresively (several hundred less) compared to the other ultrathin laptops out there, with a much faster processor..
then of course this kind of laptops (not only Apple’s) are not for everyone but that’s besides the point, you wouldn’t buy a Mercedes S series to plow a corn field nor criticize it because it’s not a good farming vehicle. that’s just plain stupid

Posted By l nyc : February 12, 2008 5:44 pm

I…I…I….
Who the hell cares about “You” and your little internet tantrums of I power? The fact is , like everything: some will like it and some won’t . It will serve some and not suit others…Why on earth is one’s I supposed to be the only opinion that counts especially when it’s tainted with bias and resentment that have nothing to do with the spec and intended market?

Get a life.

Posted By ny : February 12, 2008 5:43 pm

Apple’s sell-off today was pure bull and attributed to Gene Munster’s coy
comments and his article. Instead of supporting his 250 price target with solid Mac sales this quarter and even additional gravy with Mac Air, he writes some wishy washy article that no-one can understand which caused panic and sell -off. There was zero reason for Apple to be down $5.00 today with the exception of Gene’s article and his gamemanship for some self-serving purpose!

Posted By dave, tx : February 12, 2008 5:30 pm

To the person who is waiting for the gen-2 version… that makes sense when buying autos, but Apple and the whole computing industry’s track record is pretty good. Sometimes there are software updates or battery replacements, but I can’t remember any serious hardware issues resulting in buyer’s remorse. Better features and lower costs happen as time marches on, but I have reasonable faith in the science behind computing hardware design and testing.

Cars are different because of the moving parts and the effect of unknowns (road salt, parking location, maintenance habits, etc.). Computers just face basic environmental stresses (temperature, humidity, etc.) that are more easily tested.

That just leaves the keys and screen hinge, which should be easy to test in comparison to a whole car’s worth of moving parts.

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but in the end you have to weigh the assurance gained by waiting for the next generation vs. the “opportunity cost” of not having the tool now. I argue that the assurance gain is small, but the determination of opportunity cost is up to you.

Posted By Chris, Boston, MA : February 12, 2008 5:23 pm

“I really do wonder why the MacBook Air gets under the skin of so many people. There’s something like a vendetta by people who apparently feel put upon by Apple’s design choices.”

It’s just a reaction to the extreme hype that surrounds Apple’s products. It often comes across like they try to make people feel dumb or uncool to not want their products (although perhaps more the fanboys than Apple itself). And if you don’t like it you are suddenly accused of being a ‘hater’. I like Apple’s products but sheesh they are d*heads. So when a product is released that seems so silly that they must really think people are boneheads, this is the reaction you will get.

Posted By William, Los Angeles, CA : February 12, 2008 5:17 pm

This is a ‘road-warrior”-only product; regular folk will buy the regular MacBooks. No surprises here. BTW: it is priced pretty well; the “comparable” Sony model is about $300 more.

Posted By J smith Durham, NC : February 12, 2008 4:44 pm

QUOTE: “This is truly an assidine prediction ! The MBA will grab a very small part of Mac users as it is overpriced and underfeatured.”

I really do wonder why the MacBook Air gets under the skin of so many people. There’s something like a vendetta by people who apparently feel put upon by Apple’s design choices.

Maybe it’s some kind of irritated Internet venting- “It’s not for me, therefore, it’s not for anyone!”

Posted By Kim, NY, NY : February 12, 2008 4:38 pm

This is truly an assidine prediction ! The MBA will grab a very small part of Mac users as it is overpriced and underfeatured.

Posted By Rich, Simi Valley, California : February 12, 2008 4:11 pm

Hi there, I guess it is normal for such an Engineering Exercise, it is not just a packaging of standard Intel components, but an extreme “compression” exercise, therefore the risk to be early adopters is pretty high.

I will myself buy one… but not the first generation ;-)

Posted By Andrea, Berlin : February 12, 2008 10:32 am
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Philip Elmer-DeWittSilicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
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