Mac news from outside the reality distortion field
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May 18, 2008, 8:49 am

Survey: Programmers shunning Vista for Mac OS and Linux

“Developers,” a VP at Electronic Arts once told me, explaining why there were so many me-too Windows applications, “will walk through the desert in their socks to get to an installed base.”

True enough. But it doesn’t quite explain the results of a survey issued last week by Evans Data Corp. The headline was that most developers are still not targeting Windows Vista when they write new apps. Only 8% of the 380 developers surveyed were writing for Vista; 49% were still targeting Windows XP.

That makes sense, given that XP still enjoys a 73% market share, compared with less than 15% for Vista, according the latest NetApplications report (link).

What is harder to justify, using the desert-and-socks rule, is the sharply increased interest in non-Windows platforms. The press release didn’t mention it, but Evans Data CEO John Andrews did in an interview with Computerworld’s Heather Havenstein:

“Open source alternatives like Linux continue to take on interest,” he [said]. “As well, MacOS is also acquiring significant interest among North American developers. Although unlikely to displace Windows volume, MacOS experienced 50 percent growth as a primary development platform and 380 percent growth as a targeted platform during the period.” (link)

We’ve asked Evans Data to clarify this quote, because in this form it’s not particularly helpful. The 380% figure sounds suspiciously like a misquote, given that the size of the survey group was also 380. And that 50% increase is unanchored; it could mean 1 more developer writing for Mac or 100.

But any increase in Mac and Linux development is surprising — and encouraging — given that Microsoft (MSFT) still owns more than 91% of desktops, Apple’s (AAPL) OS runs on 7.38% and Linux still hasn’t cracked the 1% mark.

Could programmers be developing an interest in something beyond the size of the installed base?

Cross platform is definitely the wave of the future. However, with that said, I shun Java. Java, in my experience, is SLOW and lacks the strength that “real” developers need. Let’s see you develop a web application for a space shuttle (LAUGH) or a missle defense system.

Vista sucks… NOW. Give it 3-4 months. They’ll have all the bugs worked out soon, and Mac will once again prove to just be a silly fad followed by the masses (i.e. sheep). Anyone with vision will not solely switch to a single platform.

I hate Java programmers like I hate VB programmers.

Posted By J.G.,Austin, TX : June 2, 2008 11:34 am

I have a feeling that Microsoft is going to decrease in size and domination in the market even it is still hard to be Microsoft free

Posted By Valerie, LA : June 1, 2008 7:47 am

Vista is the biggest JOKE we’ve seen from redmond in some time.
It might rival Windowz ME.
As many of you will recall, this OS was supposed to really turn the corner for MS.
It was supposed to do away with a lot of the old legacy frameworks and crap (DCOM, COM, COM+, etc) and migrate to a new .NET-framework driven platform using the new WinFS filesystem. The file system would leverage the SQL Server database for storage indexing.
As a result of unexpected delays and a burning profit concern, MS eliminated the MOST of the benefits and new features of VISTA so as to finally make their re-revised release date. What did users get?

1) Avalon - the new presentation/UI…which frankly, looks like a cludgey version of Apple Leopard.

2) small changes to security and user roles

3) some new backoffice/management hooks enabling easier maintenance and updates (I/T use)

4) some newbie wizards to support tasks that most of us have learned to do manually over the years.

If this list seems underwhelming - IT SHOULD. The fact that these elements came as a new release rather than a service pack is indeed insulting and demonstrates how deep in the sand the marketing folks in Redmond have their heads. It is nothing short of appalling that MSFT wants to shut off support on XP and “migrate” us all to Vista. Why? it’s not like there’s a compelling benefit.

No one with any sense will buy (and use) this O/S. I could open up a side business uninstalling Vista and putting XP on new machines.
I’ve done it no less than a dozen times in the past 60 days.
When will someone in Redmond wake up? As it is, I only run Windowz (Server 05, Server 2k, and XP) in VMWare Fusion (via my Mac). I can’t see going back.

Posted By The Overlord, Austin,TX : May 25, 2008 5:39 pm

You stated that Vista has a 15% market share. First subtract out those pc manufacturers that load XP but count it as a Vista sale due to byzantine Microsoft marketing rules. Next remove those consumers ordering a PC without specifically ordering Vista.

Now you’re left with a 1% market share for those specifically ordering Vista. Which puts Vista market share wise at a par with Linux and far behind OS X.

Posted By Rick, Brighton, MI : May 19, 2008 4:50 pm

I work during the day at a ms shop. At night I develop cross-platform and it really does not matter what OS are the servers running. Of course I sleep better knowing that they are running a technological superior server *ix OS. Now if only we could get ms’s browsers to behave as a good web citizen…

Posted By Adriano Gominho, The Hague, Nehterlands : May 19, 2008 12:33 pm

Well, I’m a linux developer, but what I write will run in Win an Mac(I use standar libs).

I’m part of the 91% figure.why? because I purchased my two computers with Windows installed(and erased them,and created a virtual machine with windows but I don’t use it more than 2 hours/month).

Posted By Jose,Madrid,Spain : May 19, 2008 11:17 am

@Dave from Orlando - Bias? I assume from your comment that you prefer Windows as your platform. I hope, as an intelligent person, that you also wish for OS/X to gain a larger percentage of the market.

Of course, you wish for your own platform choice to remain dominant but real competition will benefit _you_. You get more features, more security, faster development cycles for less money out of your pocket. You also get a heterogenous environment that means fewer virus makers targeting just you.

You should be shouting Go Mac Go! Until they get too much market, at which point you can safely switch sides. :-)

Posted By Ted, Philadelphia, PA : May 19, 2008 10:35 am

LIfe is to short to use Windows. It worked for awhile, though it was never as good as Mac, it was used by a lot of people. But the Windows era is so OVER. Windows was the 90’s. Mac is the new OS, windows is just an application layer on your Mac (as it should be)

Posted By Brian : May 19, 2008 10:29 am

Still using MS FUD figures I see. Linux had captured 3% of the desktops four years ago and was predicted back then to be at 6-8% of the desktop by 2008. It’s popularity has only grown since 2004, and with the arrival or VISTA both Mac and Linux have shown explosive growth. The biggest mistake in computing share is limiting counts only to the retail channel, which favors MS and Mac. The VAST majority of Linux installs come from overwriting Windows with ISO downloads of Linux. Not only that, many times a SINGLE download is used to install Linux on more than one PC. So, while MS gets an unearned increase in count by one, the real increase is one or more installs for Linux. My estimate is that in the USA Mac and Linux hold a combined share of over 20% on the desktop, while in other countries the Linux desktop share is even much higher. And this doesn’t even include Linux’s large share of the server space. And now, because of security concerns about Windows, the US Dept of Defense has adopted Linux.

Posted By J.L. Kreps, LIncoln, NE : May 19, 2008 10:05 am

The Linux adoption can be explained as:
1) Good press for Ubuntu.
2) Annoyance with Vista and Microsoft. Microsoft made several mistakes with Vista. They made an OS that annoyed the user, the made an OS harder to develop for (by putting in less-than elegant kludges). Windows as a product is dying because Windows 7 will be based on Vista. On that road lies pain. Meanwhile Microsoft continues to attempt lock-in, which is not what developers or users want. Lock-in’s value proposition is only positive for Microsoft. Also, Microsoft has been making anti-consumer deals (see the recent news of the Broadcast flag being honored, even though it was struck down in the courts in 2005). Microsoft is becoming the platform to conduct B2B on, not for computer users. Meanwhile Linux makes advances in usability, and remains the People’s OS. By the people and for the people. Its main downfall is lack of familar apps and device support, but these are fading, and the servey backs it up.
3. Finally, Linux’s programming APIs (what developers use to write programs) are becoming cross platform. Both GTK and Qt (The two main APIs) can be used on Windows AND OSX, as well as their native Linux. It makes sense then that even thought he platform itself has smaller market share, the tools from the platform allow the developer to target 99.9% of the market. This where the report lacked insight.

Posted By Jason, Baltimore MD : May 19, 2008 9:45 am

@Jeff from Orlando–UAC wasn’t a mistake, it does exactly what they want it to. It was MS’s intent to force developers into writing code and installers that did not require administrative rights to the computer. They assumed it would look bad on the developers if their software always popped up the UAC crap, but in the end, it just makes Vista annoying.

Posted By John, St. Petersburg, FL : May 19, 2008 8:58 am

What he fails to point out is there is a bubbling cauldron of web developers leaving Windows in troves for OS X and Linux, mostly due to the fact that *nix still controls the server market and since OS X has BSD under the hood and is by far the most advanced desktop os.
Just do an image search for RubyConf, RailsConf, and some of the confs for django and php. MACS EVERYWHERE!

Posted By Los Angeles : May 19, 2008 8:47 am

Just like the days when the guy said: “what ever is worth inventing has been invented”

Why does anybody have to write software? Has not all of it already been done, unless of course the operating system walks out from under them.

Posted By Charlie Destin FL : May 19, 2008 7:37 am

Just plain scared Many single-faceted developers find this revelation very threatening. I think they had better come to grips that the Gates/Ballmer gravytrain has just run out of coal.

Go Apple.

Signed, fanboy.

Posted By jim, richmond, va : May 19, 2008 6:47 am

Your title makes no sense. With Vista more popular than all other non-XP platforms combined, you can hardly say people are shunning it for Max/Linux.

If anything, this shows that developers are still shunning non-Windows platforms.

Posted By Jonathan Allen, El Cajon, CA : May 19, 2008 12:50 am

It’s actually a result of the transition to webapps. Suddenly it doesn’t matter what platform we use for development, as long as the webapps we develop still render ok in most of the major browsers. Macs run FF, Opera and Safari. After that it’s just a case of kludging to make IE work. And for that, you can run IE on XP inside of parrallels…

Posted By Brett Morgan, Sydney Australia : May 18, 2008 7:35 pm

PED, I’ve read almost all of your posts as you well know.

But, this post has to be THE WORST post so far.

Are you running out of things to write about and had to meet you quota???

Posted By Jim, Rotterdam, Holland : May 18, 2008 5:04 pm

and Linux still hasn’t cracked the 1% mark

All the sources I’ve seen agree that Linux has had more than 1% of the desktop market share for a while now. They disagree whether it’s over 2% or 3%, but they agree it’s at least more than 1%.

Posted By James Justin Harrell, Denton, Texas : May 18, 2008 3:25 pm

380 programmers don’t look like a very representative of a whole industry. For vertical markets most development houses I know are working hard on platform independent applications (java, web based and c#) and gamming has it’s own consoles.
This article is quite biased and shows a zero knowledge of software industry.

Posted By Gerardo, Dallas, TX : May 18, 2008 3:17 pm

Microsoft has hosed most of the developers by using uac on Vista. They have basically blocked access to so much stuff, so by trying to stop virus writers, they are also blocking the 3rd party developers that have made Windows so popular. Putting uac on Windows Vista by default was one of the dumbest things MS has done, it will alienate the programmers and its starting already imo.

Posted By Jeff, Orlando, FL : May 18, 2008 3:11 pm

Zach: I’m a Mac-based developer myself. But what about the fact that Java 6 was very late, and only available for 64-bit Intels? Seems like Java is the weakest aspect of OS X development.

DK apparently doesn’t work in software development, or he works at Microsoft. I’ve seen many companies over the last couple of years, and there was not a SINGLE one where Macs weren’t present in significant numbers. Heck, a huge majority of the developers I know (at least 70%+) use Macs at home, both for personal use and dev.

Posted By Seattle WA : May 18, 2008 3:01 pm

Developers might still be targeting a userbase, but that userbase is increasingly the web-browser. You can develop web apps on any platform. I’d like to see how many, say, PC game developers are developing on Linux.

(i.e. you haven’t considered all the explanatory variables)

Posted By AT, London : May 18, 2008 2:52 pm

“But any increase in Mac and Linux development is surprising — and encouraging”

Encouraging? your bias in now clear.

Posted By Dave, Orlando, FL : May 18, 2008 2:06 pm

Sue… from 380 developers you made a very accurate estimatin with a big news title.. heck you got what you wanted.. people are reading the news…

the rest 5 million (minus 380) developers just stopped developing.. oh sorry they are developing for Mac..right?

Posted By DK, Seattle : May 18, 2008 1:23 pm

I think your missing the big picture.

Good developers are going cross platform. The era of the OS wars for monopoly status is over.

Posted By Jim, Breinigsville, PA : May 18, 2008 12:43 pm

I use Macintosh for all my Java development. It’s without exception, the best platform I’ve developed on for Java. I use Intellij IDEA as my IDE. With the underpinnings of Unix, the ease of use of Mac OS X, it makes an unbeatable combination. http://www.zachbass.com

Posted By Zach Bass, Sharon MA : May 18, 2008 10:22 am
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Philip Elmer-DeWittSilicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
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