Investing: How to cash in on the 3G iPhone buzz

Having purchased a new iPhone for $499 on March 20, 2008 (twice as slow, twice the price of the 3G), I don’t know if should consider myself a fool for having jumped into this company (Apple) and their product. The next phone will certainly NOT be an iPhone unless some from of customer care is offered.

Maybe the open, competitive MS Mobile platform will keep foolish consumers like myself satisfied…

three things to add.

1. aapl news just out that they will allow telecom carriers do the subsidy thing —

2. bloomberg are working on a version of their crack-berry killer app for iphone

3. i agree, its a bit premature to say ‘perilously close’ to life high, when its 10% away — there is still UP in this ric thats for darn sure

I’m already long AAPL (with a basis of about $12.00/sh.), but I bought a couple June and July option contracts, hoping for a pop coming out of the WWDC. I think that things like the SDK, global sales and reduced price point are going to propel the iPhone to become the defacto smart phone in the way that the iPod is the defacto MP3 player. At the very least, split the market 50/50 with Blackberry. And any other annoucements could also have an positive impact.

Im writing to inform that an inside source has revealed that ATT already has the iPhone Black (3g) in stores. I spoke to a friend of mines who is a manager at a corporate ATT store and he told me they have them but they have not received news as to when they will star selling them! Yes the name is iPhone Black Edition.. I have not received information regarding features yet because boxes are still sealed ive been told. But i will get back with more information as soon as received.

There’s not enough data to be statistically significant that anyone should try to trade upon.

There are lies, damn lies and statistics…someone famous said that once…this sample set is pretty small and to take simple averages leaves much out of the picture…but I draw your attention to the original iPhone announcement…the stock went up on the day and the week after…the two week window…I agree with the author that “fear” of how the media and the market treats Apple and how to trade it probably addresses the queston of why the stock has been sideways all week…if this was Google it would be up $100 per share…lol…

However if we assume the stock remains at $186 on Friday…we could see a rise of say 8%…that would be equivalent to $200.88…pretty close to all time highs…you can do the math on the other percentage gains but there are many analysis pushing for valuations in the low 200’s…

Why would one consider this as highly probable…well 70 countries are currently covered with approximately 700 million total wireless customers…even if only 1% of the total customers buy the phone in the 1st 6 months that would total…7,000,000 phones…even if only innovators and no early adopters purchased the phone that is typically estimated at 2% of available users…I think you will also get a fair number of early adopters…so the percentage is going to be closer to 5 to 7% of the market or 35 million to 49 million phones in the first 18 months…remember this will be an inexpensive entry to the internet for alot of people…Apple has sold something like 114 million Ipods…at quite a serious premium…this a tool that will become an addiction that makes the the “crackberry” pale in comparison…

And yes I have a large investment in Apple because I think they are a “disrupter” bringing change to our society…

Jim

I haven’t heard anyone mention the possibility of a double top in the near future….www.lipstickthispig.com

Why do you encourage your readers, mediocre amateurs at all things including their professions, to try and time the market?

Everybody knows you can use certain stocks to time trades but be warned once it becomes common knowledge among the insiders; the insiders will burn you for every penny you got. They are being paid to watch for these things after all.

I happen to be one of those posters on MacObserver. It might be interesting to note that my blog post over the weekend is what spurred this conversation in the first place. I wrote an article in response to Andy Ihnatko’s analysis on WWDC rumors. From that it got me thinking, “what if a 3G iPhone is not introduced at the WWDC?”

No one’s thinking along those lines. Imagine the firestorm.

Here’s the original post from my blog:
http://www.zacharybass.com/2008/05/no-3g-iphone-wwdc-on-june-9th.html

-zach

“In other words, if you wanted to play the odds around next week’s Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, you should have bought Apple (AAPL) two days ago.”

In other words, this article should have been written two days ago.

I dunno. I think maybe this whole “3G” thing is a load of media fuzz. All the news says folks in Europe will only go for 3G. But then all the news says that folks with 3G phones don’t use them, cause they suck. Hence the greatness of the iPhone, the wonder device that doesn’t suck when using mobile intraweb.

But if folks don’t use 3G, how come the iPhone depends on it? I suspect that the real reason a lot of folks don’t use 3G is not because their devices suck, but because 3g is priced so only the wealthy can justify the cost. Wealthy or enterprise based, is my point. And a 3G iPhone does zip to change that. So I am not convinced that the iPhone will make great headway because it is 3G. There are other 3G devices out there that I could buy, but I haven’t. Maybe that is because they don’t work well. But maybe it is also because I can’t justify the pricing on 3g mobile broadband.

It seems that there is not much loyal Apple Invester in present day, except fast money makers to whom they do not care much about technology but doing financial calculation only.

Apple is a great computer company.

I sure am glad when I bought Apple stock at $130 and $170 which came out to an average of $150 per share. I’ve made a good amount of money in a short time frame. I saw a 27% return on my investment! I still kick myself though when Apple was in the dumper and selling around $15 a share. Those days are over for sure.

Or just buy he stock and hang on to it until you hear any news that Jobs might be stepping down.

I think the best time to buy AAPL was yesterday, so far, the weeks low at $182.91. AAPL buyers seems to always overreact, though this time, after getting stung the last earnings report, I don’t blame them.

So now they’re all waiting to buy after WWDC day, the reason I doubt the price will be lower next week or a pullback like the last earnings report.

That’s Landstrom, not Langstrom.

ex ped: Sorriest. Fixed.

“if you wanted to play the odds around next week’s Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, you should have bought Apple (AAPL) two days ago.”

What?? Apple was trading much lower this morning that it was 2 days ago. silliness…all just a bunch of silliness.

PED, you sure are cashing in on the backs of Apple.

Apple is trading perilously close to its 2007 high???

Still below some 10%.

Great article, I just bought AAPL shares yesterday at 187 and so perhaps will miss out on the rise. I wrote about it more in my blog: http://www.savingtoinvest.com/2008/06/oh-noi-just-bought-16k-worth-of-apple.html

Great artcile and am subscribing.

Andy