How to measure the 3G iPhone buzz
How big is the buzz around Apple’s (AAPL) forthcoming iPhone?
Here’s one way to gauge it: track keyword searches using Google’s cool Trends tool, available here. With this free widget you can enter one or a series of search terms and instantly get a sense of how often they are invoked over time.
For example, a simple request for the graph of searches on Google (GOOG) for “3g iphone” over the past 12 months yields the fever chart below (subscribers click here):
Note the gradual rise in interest as Steve Jobs’ June 9 keynote approaches, which is not surprising. What is surprising is the fall-off in “News reference volume” in the bottom graph, a decline that seems genuine and not an artifact of Google’s data collection methodology. (There is no similar fall-off in, for example, Barack Obama searches.) This suggests that, although interest continues to grow among the Google-searching public, the tech press may have developed a case of 3G fatigue.
Google Trends also shows you where these searches are coming from. Here’s that data for the chart above:
Check out the size of that Hong Kong bar! How is it that an island with less than 1/40 the population of the United States generates three times as many hits? [Correction: Google is showing something more like searches per capita; see here. Still, there seems to be a lot of interest in the 3G iPhone in Hong Kong.] Let’s zero in on Hong Kong’s 3G iPhone searches:
This shows a sharp rise in searches that began in the middle of May, even before last week’s announcement that Hutchison Telecommunications would be bringing the iPhone to Hong Kong and Macau.
Here’s one final chart to put things in perspective. It maps 3G iPhone searches against RIM’s (RIMM) BlackBerry and simple iPhone searches, without 3G.
Note that despite the recent uptick in searches for 3G iPhone, they don’t rise to the level of BlackBerry searches. Moreover, neither can come close to the buzz for the original iPhone, especially when the device was launched last June.
There’s lots of data to be gleaned by tracking Google Trends. If you find something particularly noteworthy or surprising, take a snapshot and post it in the comment stream.
“…they doesn’t rise to the level…”. They doesn’t? ;)
ex ped: No they doesn’t, does they?
Also, it is possible to determine buzz based on quantity of pr0n available for the device :-)
http://www.ismashphone.com/2008/06/according-to-po.html
@ Ricky, I bet you do not own any product from Apple. In current market place it is not possible to survive just on hype, you need both (hype and substance). Be open minded try few Apple products and decide yourself on substance issue.
People interested in technology might enjoy the artwork of tech artist Mark Dotzler. A slideshow of his technology based minimal sculpture can be seen here (). He also has some nice Google Homepage Themes at his site that are great for large displays. My favorite is “Fat Wide Pipe”.
Uh, won’t a measure of “blackberry” searches also include anyone who’s searching for blackberry pie, blackberry ice cream, how to grow blackberries, etc?
Somebody didn’t do his homework…The cities breakout on Google Trends gives the relative popularity of a search item - this means that Hong Kong doesn’t have more (in number) searches than New York, but just that a greater proportion of active internet users in Hong Kong are searching for the item.
The only thing this article shows is that if you want solid news about Apple, you should type in “Apple”, not “Apple 2.0″.
I would imagine that most people are interested in the “new version of the iphone, but when searching would not put in”3G iphone” but rather just plain “iPhone”. I would be surprised if people today are googling “iphone” in respect to the “older” model.
can’t wait for the new iphone and apps. a continuing saga much like the ipod that will grow to dominate the space. i like the fact apple continues to innovate while the rest continue to imitate.
check “iphone” in trends now and see that by far that Russian leads in the language area. Indication of large interest?
I never searched for 3G on internet but waiting for the newer version to buy this time. I always go for a 2nd version since I think the first product will always have some drawbacks. I hear many of my co-workers talking about new IPhone without referring 3G. It seems there is lot of buz in public..since they already know what is a Iphone.
Would have to agree that most people aren’t skilled enough to search. In general conversation with friends I say, “the 3G iPhone is about to come out.” I get a blank stare with, “What’s 3G?”
I would imagine that hits to the lack of knowledge on the technology in the U.S.; which is far behind the EU.
Just this past Sunday I was at an AT&T store and a lady bought an iPhone. I would imagine that she had no idea about the new launch.
Bad news for apple - a company that relies on hype more than substance. I am sure alto of 3G phoens wll be sold - mostly to people who bought the inet challenged version that they rushed to market the first time out!
Not sure that these trends really reflect interest. I’ve never searched online for anything regarding the iPhone, even though I read all the news about it and I’m buying one as soon as it comes out.
I dont know that you can really say that the interest in the 3g iphone doesn’t come close tot he buzz for the original since a lot of the searches for ‘iphone’ may have been intended to learn about the 3g or the iphone in general, not necessarily just the original.
- Analyst: Apple will sell 4.47 million iPhones this quarter
- Best Buy to sell iPhones starting Sept. 7
- Steve Jobs: 60 million iPhone apps downloaded
- iPhone: Trouble in the App Store
- iPhone nano: A rumor before its time
- On the road
- iPhone apps: 1,001 and counting
- Jobs tells Times: No cancer
- Who is to blame for MobileMe?
- Two weeks later, New Yorkers wait 4 1/2 hours for an iPhone
- I do not like Best Buy and would not... More
- say goodbye to the iphone and hello t... More
- Why don't you change the name of this... More
- Eh, I guess you can't get everyone to... More
- An Iphone Nano would be nice, it woul... More
- don't forget you don't need the roku... More
- "My wife is unhappy with the iPhone b... More
- I was discriminated against at best b... More
- Make that 60,000,001 sweety.... More
- The big questions are: Is this wha... More
Silicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
Do a search using “3g iPhone” and “3g Blackberry” and the picture is completely different.