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June 25, 2008, 7:21 am

Android vs. iPhone: ‘This is where the pain happens’

One of the perils of writing about technology for a monthly print magazine is that by the time your story hits the newsstands, it’s often been overtaken by events.

Such is the fate of Daniel Roth’s long piece on Google’s Android project in the July issue of Wired.

Entitled “Google’s Open Source Android Phone Will Free the Wireless Web” and available here, it’s a well-reported behind-the-scenes look at Google’s (GOOG) effort to do for the mobile Web what Microsoft (MSFT) did for the desktop: provide the platform on which everybody else must dance.

Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone plays the same bit part in Roth’s story that the original Macintosh played in Microsoft Windows’: a inspiring example to show what’s possible — and perhaps be mined for stealable ideas — while the standard-setting steamroller grabs that 90% market share. Here’s the key paragraph:

“Those hoping for a new gadget to rival the iPhone finally understood that Google had something radically different in mind. Apple’s device was an end in itself — a self-contained, jewel-like masterpiece locked in a sleek protective shell. Android was a means, a seed intended to grow an entire new wireless family tree.” (link)

Google’s plan may yet work. But for Wired, the timing of Roth’s piece could hardly be worse. Not only did it arrive in the middle Apple’s carefully orchestrated drumroll for the July 11 iPhone 3G launch, but it landed just as the Wall Street Journal was reporting that Google’s plans have hit two serious roadblocks.

The first roadblock is the carriers. As Roth reports, Google was already having trouble getting the mobile phone operators to play along. The country’s two biggest — Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T), with a combined market share of 54% — passed. “There wasn’t anything viable we were willing to entertain,” Verizon Wireless spokesperson Jeffrey Nelson told Roth. So Google went with the third and fourth best, T-Mobile (DT) and Sprint Nextel (S). Now the Journal reports that T-Mobile won’t have any Android phones ready before the fourth quarter and has been sucking up so much of Google’s time with its demands that Sprint won’t have anything this year at all. Ominously, China Mobile, the sleeping giant Google was counting on in the Far East, but which has also been in talks with Apple, has also pushed back its Android launch.

Even more critical, if Google hopes to build a vibrant software platform, are the snarls developers are running into. As the Journal reports:

“The Android software has yet to win broad support from large mobile-software developers. Some say it is difficult to develop programs while Google is making changes as it finishes its own software…..

“Some developers say it is easier to work with Apple’s programming tools than Google’s because of the familiarity with the company’s Macintosh operating system. …

“Andy Rubin, director of mobile platforms at Google, says managing the software-development effort while giving its partners the opportunity to lobby for new features takes time. ‘This is where the pain happens,’ he says.” (link)

Apple, by contrast, has a waiting list of carriers around the world willing to sell the iPhone and thousands of programmers eager to write for the device; at its developers conference two weeks ago, Apple had to turn them away once the first 5,200 spots were filled.

“I’m rooting for Android, big-time,” writes one high-profile developer, John Gruber, in his widely-read Daring Fireball blog. “It’s easy to imagine how Android, as an overall platform, could wind up being better than the iPhone.”

But that’s a big if, he adds, before the paragraphs that cut to the crux of the issue:

“The big advantage Apple has with the iPhone is that they control the entire product, top to bottom. The case, the chipsets, the OS, the user interface. Apple knows exactly what the screen will look like when a brand new iPhone is turned on for the first time. Google’s dependence on hardware and carrier partners puts the final product out of their control — and into the control of companies whose histories have shown them to be incompetent at design and hostile to users.

“I’d be happy to be proven wrong, but my hunch is that the only way we’ll see an iPhone-caliber Android phone is if Google does what they’ve said they’re not going to do, which is to design and ship their own reference model “gPhone”. That doesn’t mean Android won’t still be successful in some sense if it remains on its current course, but that I don’t expect it to be successful in the “holy shit is this awesome!” sense that the iPhone is.” (link)

- - -

Nobody expects anything quite so awesome out of it, but the other big news in mobile phone operating systems Tuesday was Nokia’s decision to purchase the 52% of Symbian it didn’t already own, combine the different OS versions into one platform, and make it open and free. Symbian dominates the global cellphone market with 60% of installed base, according to the Nokia press release. Here’s Silicon Alley Insider’s Dan Frommer take on the acquisition:

“Buying Symbian won’t help Nokia build sexier-looking, high-end gadgets. But in theory, Nokia’s ownership will speed up Symbian’s platform development and could allow Nokia — its biggest customer — to come out with more phones, faster. That’s important as new competitors enter the market with sexier, more exciting products…” (link)

the problem here is that people don’t know what they’re rooting for here. This is not a race between the iPhone and the gPhone there is no gPhone. It’s Android a mobile OS and software platform. We’re looking at a possible replacement of the clumsy windows mobile or ugly symbian.

True some of you may dislike apple, but no one can deny the capability of mac mobile. It’s fast, capable, intuitive and just plain sexy. If Android can bring that to LG and Samsung front-ends, more power to them. The only problem? It still needs to be produced. The first gen SDK was available to all. The second: only 50 developers. Who knows about the next.

Another issue I see is the carriers. If all the big boys are dropping out there is no reason for hardware producers to pick this up. Maybe that’s what google needed to in the first place. Create a gPhone.

Posted By Joe, NYC, NY : July 25, 2008 2:40 am

HAHAHAHA> I love how about ever sentence of his article is so entirely wrong. How do I know? I can’t say since I signed a confidentiatlity agreement with a certain company. hahahaha. I know firsthand the google android is going to be awesome. Ive worked with the Iphone, many HTC devices, many other PDA and “Smartphone” devices. The android is going to kick some serious arse, even above the new blackberry, new sidekick, and new HTC models.

Posted By unknown : July 24, 2008 2:40 pm

it is not the software developers or the device manufacturers that stifle and handicap mobile devices and its consumer market. the carriers are responsible for that.

Posted By david in augusta georgia : July 3, 2008 3:22 pm

Having just purchased a very low cost laptop at Best Buy ($549, Dell I1525-119B) , I spent a few minutes looking up the lowest cost Apple laptop.

The lowest price Apple laptop BestBuy lists is model MB402LL/a at $1099. So just for starters, the Apple laptop is TWICE the price. The two machines have slightly different features sets, but believe both are totally usable laptops with essentially similar performance and capability.

The MacBook has a few features the Dell doesn’t, like Bluetooth and 1000 Base-T Ethernet, webcam, and slightly faster processor. The Dell also has a few features not on the MacBook, like an HDMI video connector (no extra cost adapter), SD card slot, twice as much ram, a modem, ExpressCard 54 slot, DVD burner (MacBook only reads DVD). I’d have to say the Dell is the feature set winner.

Windows Vista Home Premium seems to run terrifically well on this machine, and the built in apps offhand seem similar.

I’d say the extra fesatures on the Dell are more important than the ones of the MacBook, and it’s price is HALF. We could have religous battles about the intangable differences, but if you compare based on the measurables, like disk capacity, screen size, hardware functionality, the Dell is a WAY more cost effective machine.

It seems obvious the reason the 3G iPhone is half the price is because to be competetive it has to be.

Posted By J in San Ramon, CA : July 2, 2008 8:00 pm

Nasser,
first try to know the importance of the MMS/SMS after that post ur reply to my comments, switch on ur TV and see how many ads are there asking u to send such a message either MMS or SMS, for your knowledge the biggest profit that feeds the TV’s pocket these days are programs with message transfer based, take a look at the famous show “american idol” may be u will get the point, and here are some useful links:
- apple case with iPhone-like interface : http://news.softpedia.com/news/Apple-Hunts-Down-The-iPhone-Interface-Maker-48619.shtml
- for sms/mms try to google “sms mms uasge” and find me one article that mention MMS is useless.
- for the iphone price google this “iphone manufacture cost” or simply click those:
http://www.cellular-news.com/story/32022.php
http://www.tuaw.com/2007/01/19/iphone-manufacturing-cost-estimated-at-245-83-maybe/
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/cellphones/iphone-only-costs-250-to-make-rest-of-price-is-fanboy-tax-229664.php

Posted By akkad, Dubai, UAE : June 29, 2008 6:31 am

Mac OSX sucks and google android will suck( if it ever comes out) Windows Mobile 6.1 rocks.

Posted By notanapplefanboy : June 27, 2008 5:47 pm

The problem with the industry is trying to predict the future instead of giving events a chance to play out.

They did this to iPhone and tore it a new on before it was out, yet somehow it was a success.

Now they are comparing an open platform, which has really just started, to Apple’s closed platform, which has now had a chance to finally get their SDK out to developers in beta. Give it a chance, and Android may really hit a stride by 2009. Without necessarily hurting Apple, either!

Another problem is getting such fast moving info from a printed article!

Posted By Mischa, Santa Cruz, CA : June 27, 2008 12:56 pm

Until we see Andorid powered devices in hands of consumers, it is a vaporware.

Posted By iSmashPhone, Philadelphia PA : June 27, 2008 12:07 am

Akkad

I have really hard time understanding what you are saying. However, I will try to answer some of your questions based on my personal opinion.

-First, Google is not getting in the mobile market for profit. They basically want to pressure carrier to open up their networks for better and more connected devices. Hence more people surfing the web.
-I never heard of Apple suing anyone for the iPhone interface! If you follow the news you will see that Apple, along with others, was actually sued just a week ago by a company that claims that they have patents related to the multi touch screen.
-Regarding the iPhone and iPod battery. Apple will change the battery for you for you. I think that battery technology has improved in general and you don’t have to replace your battery every few months like we used to few years ago. Beside, Apple warranty include the battery.
-There was nothing wrong with the previous iPhone price. Nokia N95 and other smart phones are being sold for $400 to $500 without a contract. Apple did not force contract signing for buying the 1st generation iPhone (at least in the US) and unlocking was really easy. In 2 weeks, you will have to pay around $600 for 3G iPhone without a contract. People who did some calculations has discovered that the 1st generation iPhone actually will cost the buyer less than the coming 3G iPhone during the contract period. In conclusion, the 3G iPhone will cost more to own regardless and those who bought the 1st generation iPhone actually got a better deal as some claim.

Posted By Nasser, Oklahoma CIty, OK : June 26, 2008 3:15 pm

Question, why does Windows continue to dominate the home computing market? Answer that question and you’ll understand why Windows mobile is dominating the cell phone OS market and why Android is not a competitor with the iPhone.

This should be Android v. Windows Mobile v. Symbian and maybe RIM vs. Apple (even if it is 2 completely different markets).

Posted By Shutitmacboy, NYC : June 26, 2008 10:00 am

I get such a chuckle when I read your stuff. The best part is when all the replies expose your ramblings. :^)

Posted By Rick, Johnstown PA : June 26, 2008 8:35 am

points i like to add:
-microsoft OSes now are eating the market despite that Apple OSes were the first to introduce the GUI OS, as compare it to smart phones Apple came up with iPhone that will proceed for some time until some clean competitor appears (I believe in google).

-people used to claim microsoft strategy where i think apple has a disgusting one in both marketing and technology where at least it is not only a black box in software but also in hardware, an example for the software strategy: apple has sued people who developed iPhone-like interface for windows mobile where this is really silly from apple as the developers were some individuals not companies, as for the hardware: what would u do when ur iPod/iPhone battery is expired?? dont tell me u r gonna trash it !!!!, and as for the marketing: first we allow iPhone purchase by cash and credit card, then, only credit cards, later only one device per user, in the future may be u should by an iPod + iMac to be able to buy an iPhone.

-for the iPod, i used to wonder why it has that WoW reputation, for the iPhone i dont deny it they introduced something but i dont know what is special in iPod, plz if someone know then i’ll be 100% thankful that u vanished this wondering.

-for the new 3G iPhone cut off price, dont be amazed, actually this is the original price where if u read technology news u should know that right after releasing first iPhone news told that its really costy and it should cost 200$-300$, so yes Apple did sell the iPhone 1.0 to dummies(god bless u guys).

-note here that am not microsoft supporter but i compared it to Apple as i categorize them in same category, for linux i wont say anything at least am totally self confident with my linux machine.

Posted By akkad, Dubai, UAE : June 26, 2008 7:38 am

@ jb

I think that Android will come out - probably not too much longer, and it will have an impact and a serious market share.

But I think it will not seriously challenge iPhone for several reasons:

1- iPhone has a big jump on it - a HUGE jump. The iPhone AND the SDK are in the market NOW. In just 3 weeks iPhone will be on in the stores with a lot of very serious apps available. No one else is close. If Android was released tomorrow it would still take developers 5 months to catch up, and then - for what hardware?

2- The iPhone SDK is absolutely incredible! I have played with it a bit my self. Not sure what the Java tools for Android are like. I am sure they are good, but I don’t think they come anywhere near the sophistication of the SDK.Easy to use + easy to write for.

3- Apple does not have a monopoly on style, but they damn sure are way out front. And this DOES count for a lot - even in business apps.

4- Ditto on innovation.

IMHO

Best regards - jmmx

Posted By jmmx, Portland OR : June 26, 2008 2:43 am

@ Roy

You are SO light-hearted. But I do believe your prediction is off the spectrum.

Posted By jmmx : June 26, 2008 2:17 am

iPhone: Is a phone.
Android: Is an OS.
Apples and oranges.
Stop comparing.

ex ped: Think of it as comparing platforms. They both have operating systems and SDKs. And they are competing for the hearts and minds of the same developers.

Posted By Satish,Mumbai, Maharashtra : June 26, 2008 2:15 am

This is obviously what we have been waiting for.Two rival companies sporting software names that show a new world of communications has begun. Algis Kemezys

Posted By Algis Kemezys Montreal,Quebec : June 25, 2008 10:44 pm

Apple is about the consumer… they focussed in making great hi end consumer products and entertainment content.

That is what the iPod is. It gained nearly 70% of MP3 market. iPhone is an extension of that market. In addtion, the telecom carriers will be the value chain pushing the product. Same thing for the Mac as a hi end consumer appliance. Eventually, Apple will come with low end iPhones just it did for the iPod.

May be business will warm up to the Mac, iPhone, and even Macs. However, I am not counting on that in making my investment decisions. Businesses usually buy the cheapest PC to attach to a network.

When it comes to cellphones, I suspect it is the same thing… the RIMM phones being an exception since they offer unique services. Having worked for the top Fortune 500, I can not even imagine those hidebound IT managers tearing their RIMM servers worldwide and going with Apple. Too much career risk.

We do not need to be greedy… this company can reach a rate of 50M phones/year world wide on the current lineup. That is $20B is gross sales. A 20% net margin after taxes would mean $4B in extra profits. A PE of 30 would mean an extra market cap of $120B of which some has been discounted already. Still not bad.

Posted By Lafayette LA : June 25, 2008 10:17 pm

While I wish the Android team the best of luck, I’m perfectly happy with my iPhone and as such all this crap about comparing computers, cell phones, and MP3 players just seems silly to me. If you’re happy with the device of your choice, why would you really care about anything else?

When I had my little Nokia 6500 (or whatever it was), I wasn’t jealous of people walking around with Motorola RAZR’s. My phone did its job just fine.

Use what you want to use and be happy with it.

Posted By Michael, Cleveland, OH : June 25, 2008 7:58 pm

To Roy G Biv Lafayette, CA : June 25, 2008 6:40 pm

At least learn to spell Symbian. Windows sucks.

Posted By AJ, New York : June 25, 2008 7:05 pm

I have just returned from the future, and here is the 2012 global SmartPhone marketshare:

Windows Mobile 9 — 42%

Apple IPhone 5G — 26%

Synbiant — 20%

Android — 12%

Posted By Roy G Biv Lafayette, CA : June 25, 2008 6:40 pm

Aki - I have a couple Macs and a couple PCs. I have tried for YEARS to force myself to use linux (Redhat, Fedora, Ubuntu, etc.). EVERYTIME I ran into problems with drivers for the hardware (usually dealing with video). About 2 months ago I got a new motherboard from Intel for my main PC, and decided to do a fresh install of windows. Turns out this motherboard didn’t work well with an ide optical drive and windows wouldn’t install. So I decided to run Ubuntu. I spent one month with the latest Ubuntu and I can now say I can’t stand linux. I only piddled with it before, and figured my problems with getting it to work were simply lack of knowledge. But after a month of having to put up with such completely UN-USER-FRIENDLY software it will be a LOOONNNG time before I give linux another chance… I’d much rather put up with the occasional hiccups in Windows. And yes ultimately I prefer Mac above all of them. I am 31 now, and have been using PC’s and Apple/Mac computers since I was 10. I have never had so many problems in just simply ‘using’ the computer as I did last month in having used Linux for 1 full month. To site a couple examples… Adobe had just updated flash, but the latest Ubuntu wasn’t working well with it - and I had to dig through several forum posts to figure out what was wrong and fix it. Another example is that I have a widescreen monitor 1440×900 and NOTHING I tried would get Ubuntu to display correctly- even manually setting the frequency rates in the config files (spent an entire weekend trying to make the resolution correct before I gave up on that).

Posted By Chris K, Joplin Mo. : June 25, 2008 4:28 pm

two nights ago i was chatting with my 23 yr old female friend in Shenzhen China (South China) and the first thing she asked, “when is iPhone 2nd coming out?”. after telling her July 11, she asked if it is coming to China. told her it’s only going to Hong Kong, maybe China next year or sooner. she desperately wants one and will get it from HK (Shenzhen is close to HK). also, said she’s already behind because all her friends got iPhone 1.0 last year and now they all want iPhone 2.0 and will all get it ASAP from HK. (she loves the lowered price)

i was in China earlier this year, i only have an iPod touch, but my several friends there were amazed by it and wanted to buy one.

i say this to say anyone who thinks the iPhone is overblown, over-hyped or will not have lasting power is a buffoon. the people i know in China (age range 23 to mid-30’s) don’t want a Razor, LG or Blackberry, they want an iPhone. Steve Jobs knows this, that’s why he’s doing his best to deal with China Mobile and every large international mobile carrier. when iPhone officially gets into China, they are guaranteed unprecedented sales and profits!

if you don’t like APPL or iPhone that’s your right, but know the facts and feel of the common person before you comment.

Posted By Travis D, Fremont CA : June 25, 2008 3:53 pm

Yes iPhone momentum will continue for a while, especially with the new lower price point. But I believe the people claiming Android will not make a major impact are in denial (I personally believe Android will eventually dominate). Only time will tell though, so everyone chill out and wait to see what happens.

Posted By jb, Athens, GA : June 25, 2008 3:05 pm

Can some one tell me what’s so good about Android other than Google brand? Say as compared to LiMO which is also open source?

Posted By VB, Reston, VA : June 25, 2008 2:50 pm

The only time that a PC is inferior to a Mac is when it runs Windows. A Linux PC, such as mine running Ubuntu 7.04, is much more efficient and cost-effective for both business and entertainment purposes.

Posted By Aki, Minneapolis, MN : June 25, 2008 2:03 pm

I don’t know that any one platform will dominate the phone market the way the desktop market has been dominated, but whatever it is I hope it is open like Android or LiMo and not some proprietary platform like iPhone or Windows mobile.

Personally I don’t think the iPhone will dominate for the same reason Macs never did: not for lack of quality (because they ARE quality products), but because Apple controls the whole shebang. This means that in the desktop market, they not only have to compete with MSFT, they have to compete with Dell, Compaq, Asus, Gateway, and every little mom&pop computer store that can assemble standard PC parts and install Windows.

Is it really feasible that Apple would knock every other phone maker out of business, and if they did would this be a good thing for consumers? I think not. Apple needs to either open up or resign themselves to having yet another niche product for their fanboys.

Posted By Alan, Franklin TN : June 25, 2008 1:58 pm

Why do discussions like this always turn into a pissing match? Like Gruber, I have high hopes for the Android platform. I also find statements that it will be an iPhone killer to be ridiculous. And some in the Apple camp are no better, prematurely declaring the death of Android. I wish success to both the iPhone and the Android endeavors, and I hope to see good healthy competition between them, as well as push back against the carriers. On this last point, I expect to see cooperation between Apple and Google. Although each company is a giant, they need each other

Posted By Marcos El Malo, Los Angeles, CA : June 25, 2008 1:46 pm

I am still shocked that people still say “No MMS”!! MMS is the worst phone feature ever!! Apple actually did us a favor for not including MMS the same way it did when it removed the Floppy drives on the eMacs. MMS (and hopefully SMS) will disappear once phones comes standard with chatting apps and full email support. Once Apple launch the Apps store we will see this effect.

First of all, Android is targeting MS Windows Mobile and Symbian not the iPhone. Google want to bring the desktop web experience to the mobile phone sector to increase the traffic flow to google and partners (Ads). The iPhone already have that. Furthermore, the iphone is an integrated system with software and hardware design to work as one. Android will not have this advantage because with every phone the input/output methods and specs are not the same. This means that developers will have problems developing for more than one phone. The same reason Linux is not as successful as people though

Second, Android is not Windows in 1980s. Smartphones and PDAs are becoming more complex and people now realize that they need a stable and efficient device. The best way to get a stable and efficient device is to buy one with the hardware and software built by the same company. The same thing applies to computer. That’s why we see many PC users switching to Macs.
Finally, good luck trying to keep the alliance. They have Symbian and MS to worry about and they are more aggressive than Apple.

Posted By Nasser, Oklahoma City, OK : June 25, 2008 12:58 pm

Seriously, are all you working for Microsoft’s PR firm?
It’s amazing what a little research and facts may do to enlighten many of your comments and disprove your opinions.

Posted By jason, Rochester, NY : June 25, 2008 12:55 pm

@ JohnH.
Are you referring to Mac OS, iPhone OS, or “Apple”?
(This is an article about the iPhone v. Google’s Android platform, isn’t it?)

The fact you can’t even articulate that makes me roll my eyes and wonder if you’re just another PR drone working for Microsoft - not to mention the invalidity of your comment.
I’m running an Apple MacBook Pro with XP installed and running Access just fine.

Posted By Jason, Rochester, NY : June 25, 2008 12:53 pm

I personally am waiting for the R2D2 platform to come online. LOL

Posted By Tim Michigan : June 25, 2008 12:48 pm

To JohnH, who said “Try running an Access database with Apple that has a fairly complex SQL Stmt. It just sits there. Apple is for art and entertainment ONLY”.

There is no MS Access for Mac, so it is no wonder it doesn’t work! However, it does work with MySQL, PostgreSQL, and Apple’s own RDMS.

Access is only good for management types who can only point and click on things. It isn’t for running “complex SQL”. That’s why MS has SQL Server. You clearly have no idea what you’re talking about.

Posted By MC, Indianapolis, IN : June 25, 2008 12:35 pm

The next big story is the orders for the 36 iphones by the approved carrier’s customers. Telefonica just said it has around 300,000 pre-registered customers for new i-Phone in U.K., Spain

Posted By artman1033 Saint paul, Minnesota : June 25, 2008 12:29 pm

Cape Town and Asher Pat are correct: When articles make false assumptions and totally wrong comments about Apple, fans will jump up to correct the errors. Similarly, when anyone says anything positive about Apple/Mac/iPod/iPhone, Apple haters such as CT and AP will rear their ugly heads.

For example, apparently Asher Pat, other than hating Apple, knows little about the stock market, including the truism, “sell on good news, buy on bad news.” Nor did he follow the news that several Apple execs exercised options and sold large numbers of Apple shares. Both are common events that lower the price of any stock.

Further, if he thinks that only Apple products have fans, he has apparently never seen debates between Ford and Chevy fans!

Oh, and contrary to his false claim, Mac sales are not flat, they have been skyrocketing at a higher rate than any other computer manufacturer.

Apple fans are the FIRST to criticize Apple for real failings. Microsoft droids like CT and AP are far happier to spread FUD, misrepresentations, their lack of information, and outright lies.

Posted By Don, Venice Beach, CA : June 25, 2008 12:13 pm

to Asher Pat, London (on his comments on Cape Town): Again, another clueless blogger. Apple computer sales are accelerating and gaining market share, even in a recession (”increased market share in global PC market 10 of the last 11 quarters”). Also, the iPhone DID NOT experience a price cut by Apple, indicating some sign of weakness as you state. Apple is still getting FULL price at the HIGHEST margins in the industry paid for by the carriers. It is the carriers that are subsidizing the phones! This is not a sign of weakness! It is what the carriers do with all phones. Again, if you don’t know what you are talking about, do everyone a favor and don’t post!

Posted By FreeRange, Denver, CO : June 25, 2008 11:57 am

Anyone who think the “delays” for the android are ROADBLOCKS has not been following the events .. it’s not NEWS … everything that was slated to come out before 2009 which is basically an htc tmobile android phone .. will come out this winter…

sprint had never said that they’d have a handset before 2009

Posted By BEANTOWN BOSTON, MA : June 25, 2008 11:48 am

@Cape Town

No one is arguing that Apple rules the computing market here. Apple has a hugely profitable and steadily growing computer market-share.

The iPhone, on the other hand, is looking to be another iPod success story and looks like it will steamroll the smartphone market.

In less than a year, they have already outsold MicroSoft Mobile in the US which has been on the market for a decade. By the end of 2008 it will be offered in over 70 countries as opposed to just six.

Whether MS Mobile or Symbian or Android are good or bad is irrelevant, just like whether the Mac was better than Windows was irrelevant. Window clobbered Mac in that battle, and iPhone is going clobber everybody in this battle.

Posted By Synthmeister, Huntsville, AL : June 25, 2008 11:45 am

“Apple can’t run business software at all. Glitch after glitch after glitch. Microsoft and Apple can’t seem to come up with a solution to that problem. Try running an Access database with Apple that has a fairly complex SQL Stmt. It just sits there. Apple is for art and entertainment ONLY.

Posted By JohnH., New York, NY : June 25, 2008 11:25 am”

Aside from not citing any examples whatsoever other than Access — a sorry excuse for a database to start with — all of your apparent gripes have everything to do with the software (i.e. Microsoft-provided) and nothing to do with the operating system (i.e. Apple) and the hardware (i.e. Apple, Intel, etc.)

Posted By Tony, Boston, MA : June 25, 2008 11:44 am

@ Pat in London (and Cape Town)

A few pints here…

1- I do agree with you that Apple posts have their fans, many of whom are a bit over the top. This world has many interesting people in it. However…

2- You mention the immediate, knee-jerk attacks, among them “Vapor-ware”, Well, I used that term the other day, so let me explain it as perhaps some readers are not familiar with the meaning.

Vaporware does not reflect on the ultimate quality of a piece of software. Vaporware refers to software that is promised and has not been delivered. It comes from the fact that there is a long history of zing-bang products that have been promised but that have never been completed. The point being made by engineers, is that we need to have a certain skepticism as to whether or not something will materialize when we have no product in hand. This is particularly true when a product (A) has no current release, and (B) has been delayed.

This description describes Android. If you are a person who wants to make money by programming for a mobile phone, are you going to work on Android? When will you have something to work with? No one knows.

I wish Android well. I believe in open systems, and even though I own Apple stock, I am not fond of hegemonies. It will be good for Apple to have another system to keep it on its toes.

My point here is that - other attacks aside - using the term vaporware to describe Android is merely a factual observation.

——
3- As to the references to Apple’s performance… The comments show you to be as out of touch as those you criticize.

“…Mac sales are as stagnant as five years back, Iphone 1 sales were disman to say the least…” (I assume you meant “dismal”)

One thing that is incontrovertible is that Mac sales have been increasing at roughly 50% YoY in the last several months. To describe this as “stagnant” shows a total divorce from reality.

I do not think that 6M iPhones sold in the first year is dismal. Their stated objective was to sell 10M by end of 2008 (later changed to 10M IN CY 2008). Let us see how they do here.

Respectfully.

Posted By jmmx, Portland OR : June 25, 2008 11:43 am

The big difference to the PC wars is that everyone has a cell phone already. Business buyers won’t be the only big driver on cell phone sales like in the PC world. It’s very possible that multiple phone OSes stabilize to equal market share.

Posted By David, Atlanta GA : June 25, 2008 11:41 am

Android is a pipe dream. Google is good at search, we haven’t seen them do any hardware or even device software. Apple is king of this market and is rapidly taking over the ‘PC’ market. Generic PCs are just JUNK by comparison to Macs, and yet Macs are no more expensive. It’s incredible to me that anyone buys PCs when they are only a lame subset of what you can do on a Mac.

The ignorance in a statement like this shows you why Apple does so well. They take porn addicted fools that filled their perfectly fine PC with a bunch of viruses and tell them that they can look at the all the porn they want and even photoshop their own faces into the pictures to build their self-esteem without ever getting a virus.

Please, do some research before you throw out the most ridiculous comments EVER.

I used to work for a PC company; where on a daily basis I had multiple customers buy just because our “Generic PCs” did EVERYTHING your holy grail does for upwards of $400 less on average.

Maybe that should be Apple’s new slogan, “Ignorance is bliss.”

Posted By Drew, Grand Rapids MI : June 25, 2008 11:41 am

Where do people get this BS?’ If you don’t know what you are talking about, please don’t post until you do some research!

Cape Town: “Mac sales are as stagnant as five years back” - you are totally clueless! You have a computer. You have the internet. Do some research before posting such a ridiculous assertion! iPhone - sales dismal? Try the most successful smart phone launch ever in the US capturing 27% market share in its first few months with version 1.0, putting it instantly ahead of MSFT (granted, it did drop to 19% in Q1 this year as the V 2.0 launch neared)! No one expected iPhone sales to be great in the EU as V1.0 didn’t have 3G - now watch what happens around the world with V 2.0. As far as Windows on cell phones, its an also ran that will lose market share rapidly. It only held a 13% market share of smart phones at the end of 2007. What Apple has proven is that people do care about great design, and most importantly, about products that are easy to use, intuitive, and that actually work the way consumers want them to! Not one person has ever said that about MSFT!

Mathew of Boston: Again, clueless. Apple has been the first provider of smart phones / handheld computing devices to dictate the terms to the carriers, instead of the other way around! (I remember the advanced Motorola phone I had from Verizon which had bluetooth capabilities but Verizon had Moto disable the phone’s ability to send photos directly to my computer through bluetooth so that I would have to buy the Verizon data plan. Apple is in fact opening up their phone, but in an intelligent way that enables a stable and predictable platform on which to build custom and off the shelf apps, and best of all, anyone can easily develop for the iphone. How much more open do you need to be?????

Posted By FreeRange, Denver, CO : June 25, 2008 11:37 am

Apple can’t run business software at all. Glitch after glitch after glitch. Microsoft and Apple can’t seem to come up with a solution to that problem. Try running an Access database with Apple that has a fairly complex SQL Stmt. It just sits there. Apple is for art and entertainment ONLY.

Posted By JohnH., New York, NY : June 25, 2008 11:25 am

Cape Town sounds like he was abused by Apple when he was younger. If you want to look at the actual reports instead of talking out of your zass, Mac is the only computer whose sales are actually growing during this recession. And you talk about how the stock dropping 4% is actually a reflection of the company itself. The stock drops pretty much every time they announce things now because people’s expectations are so out of whack these days.

I bet you are the type of person that has snickered so much at the iPhone that even though you really want one, you would look like a hypocrite to all your acquaintances.

Posted By Steve Jabs, Cupertino, CA : June 25, 2008 11:17 am

As a developer, I just attended Google I/O as well as Apple WWDC(as a iPhone developer) in the previous four weeks.

I have also been involved with JavaFX mobile.

If anyone has a good chance to catch up with the iPhone, Android does have a chance:it is built from ground up and leverages java technology without being bound by it. Demos at Google I/O conference(compared to iPhone) were impressive. Android also has google money and might behind it(not an insignificant advantage!). Whole source is to be soon open source unlike anything else out there.

All the tools that are used to developing on Java can be used to develop for Android. Google themselves seem to push ‘eclipse’ development environment which is used by many java developers.

Sure, for now, I am sticking with iPhone as a platform if not for any other reason than because apple is racing ahead and it is exciting to develop to. Beta development of iPhone is not trouble free but worth it. Hope it is the same with Android(I am not putting my energy there for now)

But it is premature to declare Android dead just because it is having a slow birth or may be indeed slow evolution since it is a whole species being created not just an individual product:-)

Posted By rajan, cambridge, MA : June 25, 2008 11:01 am

Wud like to echo Cape Town

“Bizarre how Apple articles always get the maddening crowds screaming ” the day Apple rules all”. Yet, still waiting…. Mac sales are as stagnant as five years back, Iphone 1 sales were disman to say the least, hamstrung by one bad PR move after the next from Apple, IPhone 2, kicked off with a bang, a 4 % drop in Apple stock value!
So much hype, so little actual infrastructure to compete, as for internet on Iphone, sorry can’t agree it’s a pain to run Windows apps on it, like it or not 92% of the worlds computers run on Windows, and business can’t care about flash design and razorblade looks.”

There are some products with their fanatic folowing (eg Sony PS, X-box) but there is only one company with its own fanatics - Apple. Wherever there is a product that can compete with an Apple product, legions of zombie-fanatic Appleheads attack it for being stupid, bad or “vapor-ware” and sign-off by “Apple rules” or “Go Apple Go”. I your ever read any talkback debates, youcan deduct that Apple market share in computers and phones is at least 80%. Whatever Apple does is genious, gonna break the competition and just in time (no-matter that moves like lowering prices are NEVER a good sign) and any development, no matter how ridiculous is “good for apple” (see Amazon entry into MP3 selling.

Cape Town, u and I are lone voice in the Apple-cul curch, mate.

Posted By asher pat, London : June 25, 2008 10:42 am

It’s a pity that Mr. DeWitt and many others paint it as “Google vs. Apple “.Did you see the Android phone? Right, there isn’t one. So Google doesn’t really compete with Apple. Apple would make successful product even if it run on Android.

Android is competing with Microsoft, and more precisely with its Windows Mobile platform. It’s gross perversion of truth to state that Google tries “to do for the mobile Web what Microsoft (MSFT) did for the desktop: provide the platform on which everybody else must dance.“ Microsoft’s Windows Mobile is proprietary OS that aims to repeat the business model we see for computer OS market: dominate and then make everybody pay through the nose. Android is an open source OS that will not be a direct financial benefit to Google. How on earth do these two approaches seem similar?

True, Google’s motives are not altruistic. With common phone OS platform it’s going to be easier to do advertisement, which is Google’s bread and butter. Still, I think it’s better than letting Microsoft dominate phone OS too.

Posted By CD, Chicago IL : June 25, 2008 10:41 am

Put down your $6 lattes Apple fans, and Apple haters should blog about something more relevant. The real fight is not between the iPhone versus a hypothetical Android phone, it’s with the carriers. The non-sequitur comments about the iPhone’s superiority are unnecessary. Verizon and AT&T with all their rhetoric of openness are too afraid of losing any measure of control. The iPhone is really the ultimate product of that mindset and all the other handsets (and Microsoft) are scrambling to play the same game (see Samsung Omnia).

I was psyched last year when Google announced the Android platform, primarily because of the promise of ‘openness’ that theoretically would help usher in a less controlled OS environment than we currently are stuck with. Android wasn’t about taking down the iPhone, it was about creating a culture of creativity and setting standards that everyone could play on. Choices are good and the iPhone as set the bar that all future phones will be measured against, but that doesn’t make it the best phone out there (where’s the MMS?) or the best choice for everyone. It appeals to a certain market that loves a trendy product and enjoys a Mickey Mouse/simplistic interface (be honest, Apple is the designer brand of electronics and many who only buy it do so because of that). If people are looking for further innovation than what Steve Jobs, Verizon and AT&T think are best then consumers should be looking at ways to bring more openness.

Who knows? Maybe with the developer’s kit, Apple might be tempted to start giving up more control in support of openness, but if last year’s updates that ‘bricked’ unlocked phones is any indication that scenario is doubtful. Even though consumers pay for the product (and continue to pay with higher contract rates to offset the subsidized phones) we are prevented from doing what we want with the phones if the carriers or Apple don’t like it. Support unlocked phones and open interfaces; it will benefit consumers in the end.

Posted By Matthew, Boston, MA : June 25, 2008 9:59 am

Android is a pipe dream. Google is good at search, we haven’t seen them do any hardware or even device software. Apple is king of this market and is rapidly taking over the ‘PC’ market. Generic PCs are just JUNK by comparison to Macs, and yet Macs are no more expensive. It’s incredible to me that anyone buys PCs when they are only a lame subset of what you can do on a Mac.

Posted By Brian : June 25, 2008 9:49 am

Why would someone want to build on a platform as alien as Android? I mean, Androids are from outer space. They don’t understand the human race, and science fiction has stereotyped them to be nasty creatures. I recently watched Alien (1) on TV and I was terrified in my own home. I could sleep for hours, and now you people want Android to control your cell phone? What’s next? An alien reaches through space and your cell phone speaker and bites off your ear? You people are nuts!

Posted By Lemon Drop, NY : June 25, 2008 9:35 am

There is no Android phone. You can keep dreaming. If you want the real thing, buy an iPhone. If you want an iPhone imitation, there are dozens of them out there. iPhone is the original and the best, all the imitations are bad substitutes.

Posted By d_st, ny, ny : June 25, 2008 9:26 am

You should have mentioned that John Gruber is straight Apple developer which makes this much more interesting…

And basically the WSJ article is from the technical side completely bogus e.g. there has not been any new SDK release since February where developers could complain about, so I expect that the rest is also bogus.

Posted By Karl M, ny,ny : June 25, 2008 9:25 am

Bizarre how Apple articles always get the maddening crowds screaming ” the day Apple rules all”. Yet, still waiting…. Mac sales are as stagnant as five years back, Iphone 1 sales were disman to say the least, hamstrung by one bad PR move after the next from Apple, IPhone 2, kicked off with a bang, a 4 % drop in Apple stock value!
So much hype, so little actual infrastructure to compete, as for internet on Iphone, sorry can’t agree it’s a pain to run Windows apps on it, like it or not 92% of the worlds computers run on Windows, and business can’t care about flash design and razorblade looks.

Posted By Cape Town : June 25, 2008 9:21 am

Even if other cellphones match the iPhone in hardware features, they will not match Apple’s software. The Touch/Tilt control and web browser. The App Store and iTunes. When Apple gets more carriers and spread to other US carriers it will be the smartphone to have. The Apps will be the game winning blow for the iPhone.

I don’t know why people are talking about Android. The Android phone might never be produced. They have problems with the phone and Google is not a hardware maker. The Android is a fantasy and will not have as many features as the iPhone. The iPhone is proven technology. about should not comment. The Android will likely have many bugs.

The iPhone is the best smartphone or portable device for the internet. No other device offers full website access. Apple has revolutionized the smartphone industry like what they did with the personal computer with the GUI interface. Many competitors will try to copy Apple, but Apple’s iphone will continue to evolve and everyone else will have to repeatedly try to catch up. There are also other features in the iPhone that no competitor’s phones have: Tilt-Control, GPS, WiFi, iTunes support for movies, multi-Touch screen. If you want to support advancements in technology and the best smartphone on the market, buy the iPhone.

Posted By d_st, ny, ny : June 25, 2008 8:27 am

Change - Here’s the key graph
To - Here’s the key paragraph

Change - But that’s a big if, he adds, before the graphs that cut to the crux of the issue
To - But that’s a big if, he adds, below are the paragraphs that cut to the crux of the issue

Posted By Jim, Rotterdam, Holland : June 25, 2008 8:04 am

Many well-known companies sell mp3 players, yet almost everyone has an iPod. What would make anyone think cell phones are going to be any different (in the current context of all the iPhone hype)? Many people I know had iTunes before an iPod. The iPod (and iPhone) sinks seamlessly with iTunes. Apple already dominates that market, and will continue to do so.

Posted By Gary Rybold, Irvine, CA : June 25, 2008 7:53 am

As I said over on the Apple Finance Board, comparing Android on handsets to OS X on the iPhone is akin to the Linux on desktop versus Mac Os X argument.

And the developer tools for the iPhone are literally outrageously good - the absolute best available for any mobile platform. Coupled with the cross platform compiling ability of the develpment environment - XCode - and iTunes as the distribution method, and you have an unbeatable proposition for developers.

Hasta la vista Symbian, and Android - doomed, in my opinion, to devolve into something as sad as Marvin The Paranoid Android from “The Hitchikers Guide To The Galaxy.”

Posted By Tommo_UK, London : June 25, 2008 7:35 am
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Philip Elmer-DeWittSilicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's b