Supply chain report: 15 million iPhone 3Gs forecast for 2008
It was mid-May the last time FBR Capital Market analyst Craig Berger checked with his contacts in Apple’s supply chain, and what he heard then was bad news: orders for iPhones for the second quarter had just been been cut 25%.
But FBR went back to those same sources earlier this month, and on Thursday he and Robert Pikover reported “big positive revisions” in Apple’s so-called build forecast.
“Our latest checks show forecasted calendar 3Q and 2008 iPhone build volumes have been revised significantly higher, with more than 15 million 3G iPhones plus two million old 2G iPhones forecast for 2008,” they wrote in a note to clients.
Apple’s official target is to sell 10 million iPhones in 2008.
In other Apple (AAPL) supply chain news, Berger and Pikover report:
- More iPods: iPod builds were revised up 15% since their last report, with strong Classic and Nano builds offsetting slighly lower iPod touch builds — a surprise given the number of iPod touches being given away this summer in back-to-school sales.
- New iPods: “We hear a new, lower priced Nano may be coming, as well as refreshed versions of the Touch and Classic,” they write.
- More Macs: Apple’s 3Q notebook and desktop build volumes were revised up by 10% and 20%, respectively.
In summary, they like what they hear:
“For Apple, the firm continues to knock the cover off the ball in terms of product innovation, sleek designs, attractive price points, and effective global deployment plans. These checks confirm Apple’s product cycle momentum continues to gain steam.”
Via Seeking Alpha and Silicon Alley Insider.
The by-line says it all: “outside the reality distortion field.”
The geiger counter measuring the strength of the distortion field surrounding aapl as of late would peg the needle into the red.
Mr. Elmer-DeWitt must have had his “shields up” when he wrote this deceptively simple, but nonetheless brilliant article.
Thanks Phillip for turning on your shields. Any idea why your colleagues have lost the ability to turn on their shields?
Pretty big changes in such a short time.
I do no trust such analysts that change their mind so company forecasts so big in such a short time. I believe the analyst was trying to pull the stock down and now he is trying to push it up.
Either crook or incompetent.
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Silicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
What’s interesting is the “2 million old 2G iPhones”. Are those really in the calendar 3Q? If they are the old ones, where are they still going to be sold? If they are new 2G iPhones, then that means Apple plans to announce a new model, most likely in Sep. And where will it be sold?
Berger seems to have gotten the previous call correct. With the 3G launch on July 11th instead of in June, it does seem likely that Apple cut 2nd quarter shipments. And other than the 2G part, it seems the new call is likely correct, maybe ramping from 2.5, to 5, to 7.5M over the 3 months. That would provide plenty for the other 50+ countries to launch, and set Apple up for a big 4th quarter.