China Mobile’s iPhone negotiations enter endgame

Deal is done. Announcement in August.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-9873327-37.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

There are 400,000 active iPhone users in China. Population is 1.3 billion, so I stand corrected.

So that’s a whopping .03% of the population!!!

And just because someone owns a car doesn’t mean they’re going to buy an iPhone.

Re: “The iPhone will will spread like jam over there.”

It’s easy to make blanket statements like that from the comfort of your desk in New York, but I just can’t take anyone here seriously until you actually visit China.

China is still a third world country. It is a fact that the majority of the country is poor. Outside of Beijing and Shanghai, this is still a farming country. So don’t be blinded by their population because most of them CANNOT AFFORD an iPhone. They will not outsell the US.

For what it’s worth, here area few related notions on iPhone in China negotiations -
http://idannyb.wordpress.com/2008/06/28/iphone-3g-in-china-path-cleared-for-a-deal/

It seems many of the people on this comment list don’t know or don’t understand China… (I’ve lived/worked in China for 16+ years)

There are over 1M units of active iPhone users in China today…and there are MANY MANY people who can afford iPhones. In fact, iPhones are not considered expensive in China vs. other high-end Symbian or Windows Mobile phones…

1M phones is ~25% of all iPhones sold in the world last year. And with all of them requiring a hack to unlock…given no carriers supports/sells them right now. If CMCC takes on the iPhone, China will likely sell more units than any other market in the world.

RE: “… Sure, there are over 2 billion people there … ”

According to the United Nations statistics, there are approximately 1.3 billion people in China.

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RE: “they do not borrow money to purchase status items to show off their “wealth”.”

Have you ever seen Hong Kong? It’s one of the glitziest cities in the world. High fashion, expensive living, flashy cars. And, they like to show they are in.

They, and mainland Chinese, are very fashionable, and want the latest cool things.

The iPhone will will spread like jam over there.

Gosh, they “walked” or “biked” so they are poor and cannot afford an iPhone? I wish you had lived in Asia from Indonesia to Singapore to Thailand to China to Hong Kong to Taiwan to Japan. Walking is a standard mode of transportation and biking as well. Asian culture is naturally frugal and they save more than they spend. Most of them (not all) also adhere to the confucian principal of being modest so they do not flaunt their wealth. Unlike Americans, they do not borrow money to purchase status items to show off their “wealth”. That is fake wealth. They then to buy in cash rather in loans. WHen a person buys and drives a Mercedes, chances are it is paid in cash and there is a ton more to support the lifestyle. There are very few “fake” wannabe millionaires (like paper-rich ones in the US) in Asia. You will be surprised by the net worth of a street hawker or a simple man or woman walking under and umbrella, cradling a child and carrying a bag of grocery from a local “bazzar”. How about in the $500,000 to $800,000 range to start? I know because I have lived there and worked with these people. You cannot tell their wealth by their clothing and their homes. There is no McMansion built with loans.

Americans have been so sheltered that we are losing our world view. We are often very self-centered, very amateurish and very ignorant when it comes to foreign cultures and traditions. Our ignorance is clearly reflects in our foreign policies.

So you should really open your mind, really learn about their lives and lifestyle before assuming everyone in the world is like the US. They are not.

You guys need to realize that there are millions of cars on the roads in China. If people can afford a car, they can certainly afford to buy a cell phone.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/Beijing_traffic_jam.JPG

This is great news for Apple even if they didn’t get their revenue sharing deal they wanted. As a big Apple supporter and stock holder thus makes me happy.

As much of a Mac fan I am I am still glad to see China tell Jobs to take a hike with the revenue sharing. The record companies were trying to get Apple to share a piece of the iPod revenue and Apple told them to take a hike.

Those of you that think everybody in China is dirt poor and can’t afford an iPhone are naive about China. Sure there are a lot of poor people there that won’t be able to afford an iPhone. There are a lot of poor people in the US too that can’t afford an iPhone either.

With only 10% of China being able to afford an iPhone that’s still ~130M people and if the iPhone only gets 1% of these people that’s still 1.3M iPhones or ~13% of Apple’s 10M goal by the end of the year. So to say 10% is not that much has to be taken in right perspective. Another thing to remember is there are >1M people in Beijing that are USD equivalent millionaires.

If 90% of Chinese can’t afford an iPhone, that leaves 10% that can, or around 130M. Works for me….

Don’t sell the Chinese short They view iPhones as COMPUTERs, not necessarily a mere phone. This is the case in MANY developing countries.

I was wondering why Apple had reportedly ordered a new build of 2 million “old” 2.5g iPhones according to recent reports. This now makes sense, given that China Mobile doesn’t support the WCDMA 3G standard. It looks likes those 2 million iPhone are destined for the Chinese market this year. Considering there are an estimated half-million unlocked phones running on China Mobile already, that’s probably a reasonable build size for 2H2008.

John,

Maybe they walk/bike to work just because it’s smarter, and physically possible. There’s little correlation between their choice of transportation and their ability to afford a cell phone. In fact they may have more disposable income.

Being from LA, you obviously don’t understand life without a car. How much of your monthly income goes towards owning, insuring, maintaining your car(s)? How far does that car allow you to live from work? So far that you have to drive to buy a loaf of bread?

The times are changing dude.

Poor Guy, Bottom line : The frog in a pool met a frog from Sea, The first question he asked was is sea bigger than my pool ( he believed pool is the biggest water body ever in earth)

Motorola has sold millions of Ming phones in China and those are priced around $500. Discounting the potential sales of $200 iPhones because the average wage in China is so low is silly. There are already a huge number of expensive unlocked first generation iPhones in use in China as we speak.

I wouldn’t get too excited about Apple selling the iPhone in China. Sure, there are over 2 billion people there but I recently went to Beijing for 2 weeks and I guarantee that it would take 2-3 months salary for 90% of the people there to be able to afford an iPhone. The majority of the people there simply don’t have the income to first, pay $200 for an iPhone and second, pay for a voice + data plan. I mean, most of them are still riding bicycles or walking to work every day.

So even though China is over 7 times larger than the US, I guarantee that Apple will sell fewer iPhones in China than the US.