ChangeWave survey: 56% of smartphone buyers want iPhones

Apple vs. RIM is getting old.

RIM has the business market, but the consumer market is much larger. That is what Apple is after as well as some of the business market. Apple is MUCH better than RIM in doing consumer products.

Apple stock typically tanks after an opening or announcement. This is because certain stock advisers try to talk Apple stock down so they can invest on the dips in price. It is cyclic, but Apple inevitably goes back up again. Thus I love it when Apple stock tanks. It is a fantastic buying opportunity, not negative news at all. I laugh all the way to the bank whenever Apple’s stock tanks. Buy buy buy.

Apple is creating a huge iPhone ecosystem - with music, movies, applications, accessories, Macs, iTunes software, MobileMe, Exchange, iPods, etc. An ecosystem such as this is extremely hard to compete against. It is not only extremely difficult to copy since the competitor has to be able to create the entire widget (and Apple is one of the very few that can - and the only one that can do an ecosystem), but it also is NOT a monopoly like Microsoft did with its one product - Windows. There are competitors all over the place at all levels. But only Apple can create an ecosystem.

Go Apple!

If you look at the 29 Apr ChangeWave article:

http://blog.changewave.com/2008/04/top_apple_blackberry_likes_dislikes.html

You will see a chart of top features iPhne users would like to see:
- 3G
- third party software
- GPS
- Email integration
- Voice recognition

Note how Apple has methodically delivered on the top 4 of the 5.

I am sure that voice recognition, cut/paste are not far off. Remember, these features are only software and can be easily upgraded in new OS release (read 2.2)
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One big thing -
As Apple now has access to Exchange server, there will be pressure on RIM since their push service is expensive. In another year or two, I think Apple will have their own Exchange type server, running only on Apple X-Server and CHEAPER than MS (Xserve is already way cheaper than MS because there are no per-user licenses)

This will provide huge financial incentives for enterprises to switch.

MobileMe is the testing ground.

IMHO

No, no, no Elmer. You have it all wrong. You’re supposed to say 44% of all smartphone users do not want an iPhone. Get it straight as you always do.

The Applications is why consumers will buy the iPhone. Reviewers should have waited until after the App Store launch. The iPhone was built to surf full internet not Mobile Web like other smartphones. iPhone is meant to be a portable internet device above the cellphone or iTune or camera usage. With a worldwide launch, the iPhone should sell more than 10 million units this year. More carriers will be added. China will be the most important because Chinese tend to buy the newest and best cellphones and China has the most cellphone users in the world. Russia and possibly India will be major carriers to add. No analyst has projected the revenue from the App store. The App store and iPhone Applications have not been allowed to be marketed by Apple, because Apple wants it to be a surprise. The App store and iPhone applications will start to be marketed aggressively a few weeks after the 3G iPhone launch. You’ll see iPhone games on TV and in magazines. Also iPhone business and other applications on TV and periodicals. 3G isn’t wide spread in the USA and some countries with old cellular networks. But 3G is wide spread in Japan, and some Asian and European countries, that was why other countries wanted 3G. 3G is still new in the USA. The App store and Full Internet will be the reason why the iPhone will be better than other smartphones. There are 4,000 approved developers so there should be 4,000 new applications. Thousands of other developers have not been approved but might be approved later. The iPhone will have applications from 3rd party developers that will make it better than the Blackberry. The Blackberry costs more to use and operate than the iPhone, so reviewers who say the iPhone is expensive don’t know what they are talking about. TomTom is rumored to have a navigational software for turn-by-turn with the iPhone GPS. iPhone owners will have to pay about $10 for the TomTom software. The iPhone GPS is the same with all other smartphones with GPS but the iPhone offers a cheaper price.

Another caveat to consider in this analysis is the timeframe under consideration. In the next 90 days, Apple sells the iPhone (ok, the next 900 minutes in my time zone). But RIMM’s newest phone is still outside that timeframe, so tech-savvy BB devotees aren’t going to buy within the timeframe under consideration.

Phillip,

Nice report. Thanks.

The scary thing for RIM is contemplating the possibility of Apple killing the ball in a grand slam offense with:

- Exchange Push functionality
- 1000s of gorgeous apps for consumers and businesses
- eye candy interface
- top rated security and reliability
- easy INSTANT synching/backup with desktops
- explosive adoption in Asia/3rd world as the pocket PC for the billions! who don’t have a desktop.
- rollout of more models to follow in H1 2010
- iTunes movies, TV, music, audiobooks, lectures exploding

What’s RIM to do? They need to alter their business model significantly, but how?

For a more comprehensive review with better numbers, check out what I compiled on the 3G iPhone from various reputable sources :
http://www.savingtoinvest.com/2008/07/apple-3g-iphone-update-and-analyst.html

It’s driven me nuts over the past year how RIMM and AAPL have often moved together, with RIMM generally seeing the bigger gains. Just can’t understand it. AAPL isn’t a phone company, it’s the world’s most innovative computer company. Big money investors don’t seem to get it. Maybe the next couple of weeks will finally bring some enlightenment and the stock will take off.

RIMM in a PANIC! How do you say ‘maketshare erosion’? Owners of that bloated stock with its p/e of 40++ is in for a rude awakening. The market is RIMM’s to lose, Apple’s to win.