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July 24, 2008, 8:04 am

iPhones (briefly) available at 80% of Apple stores

After suffering severe product shortages — and frustrating untold numbers of would-be buyers — Apple by fits and starts seems to be getting its iPhone 3G supplies in order.

Thanks to a pair of free tools that have emerged to take advantage of Apple’s raw data feed of store-by-store availability, we’re getting a much better picture of the company’s supply and distribution problems than is afforded by the availability widget on Apple’s website.

The first is Chris Barnes’s real-time iPhone 3G Store Availability tool, which dips into the data feed every 15 minutes and displays all the information on one page — rather than breaking it up into state-by-state reports as Apple does. That way you can see at a glance that, as of Thursday 6:30 a.m. EDT, for example, the 16GB White iPhone 3G was in stock in 97 of 188 Apple stores in the United States, or 52% of all company shops.

[UPDATE: Apple seems to be having trouble with its data stream. As of Friday 7:00 a.m. EDT, its own widget showed no iPhones available anywhere in the United States. Barnes' TopMuffin site, using data updated at 3:53 a.m., reported that there are iPhones -- at least white ones -- in stock in most states.]

The second tool is a series of fever charts published by Sean Harding on his personal blog here. We’ve posted several examples below the fold. When the data are arrayed to show availability over time, some interesting patterns emerge. For one thing, you can clearly see where the iPhone supply nearly flatlined on July 20, when only three Apple stores in the United States had any in stock (see Comic relief: The world is out of iPhones!).

You can also see how supply varies during the day, as stores run out of units one by one, and then spikes in the morning as the stock is replenished. On Wednesday morning, for example, the percentage of Apple stores with iPhones in stock reached 80%, although by the end of the day it was down to just over 50%.

The charts also suggest that the black 8GB model is the most popular and the white 16GB the least — although that assumes that Apple (AAPL) is manufacturing the three varieties in roughly equal numbers.

Below the fold, as promised, Harding’s most recent charts.

While iPhone 3G is a great device, it is on a very expensive carrier AT&T. There is no reason to charge $20 extra for text messages that take up less data in a month than a single song.
Here is a price comparison of EXPENSIVE AT&T iPhone 3G family talk plan vs. much more economical Sprint Instinct’s plan:
http://instinctbookmarks.blogspot.com/2008/07/sprint-instinct-vs-at-iphone-3g-family.html

Posted By John, Richmond, VA : July 28, 2008 10:43 pm

One young man serving me a Starbucks this morning recounted the story of gettings his white 3G at a Jacksonville, FL Apple store. Four people in line. The sign said no more available. When they opened the cabinet to get his phone he saw what looked like around 100 more 3G iphones. He was shocked–didn’t think Apple would stoop to that kind of thing.

Posted By JK, Orlando, FL : July 27, 2008 10:06 pm

The severe shortage of iPhones avalible around the country is no surprise at all. With the original iPhone (as I’m sure many of you remember) after a brief resupply the second day almost no store had any in stock for nearly a week. The big difference here is two fold. 1. Most stores are actually still getting some which is therefore re-making the line ever single day. 2. The demand for the iPhone 3G is ENORMOUS.

I’m sure Apple had a supply built up before release and was as shocked as we all were by the extreme level of response to the new phone. I’m sure they are doing the best in their power to ramp up production and catch up with sales. If you don’t want to wait in line then you should wait a few weeks for things to calm down (don’t forget most AT&T stores are looking at a pre-order line more then a month long).

Shawn while your comment is valid, it is important to note that for one the information of how many phones each store had in stock would be useless (unless you knew how many people were also in line) and two Apple NEVER discuses exact numbers when it comes to stock availability!

I also know that some Apple stores are now handing out claim tags to everyone coming in for the new iPhone so that they may leave and return at their leisure through the day, eliminating some of the lines and allowing them to “sell out” much faster and keep people from waiting in line for a phone they aren’t going to get (sold out now would be when they have a claim stub for each phone in stock).

In short I think Apple is doing an amazing job trying to handle the overwhelming level of people trying to purchase one of the new phones. I don’t think anyone (least of all Apple) expected quite this level of a turn out!

Congrats to Apple!

Posted By Gregory, Seattle, WA : July 25, 2008 11:31 am

All of these tools/widgets, including Apple’s, are completely useless. Unless you know how many of each type a store has, knowing the store has “availability” is of no use.

My wife wants an iPhone. I’ve been to our local Apple Store *5* times to get her one. Each evening, Apple’s site says iPhones are available in that store and, each morning, I go to the store and am told, “We sold out”.

Please stop “reporting” on the “percentage” of stores with iPhones. It’s a completely useless metric without knowing *how many* iPhones each store has, let alone *when* they have them (knowing a store had iPhones at midnight is useless. You need to know if a store has product *during* business hours).

Bottom line is Apple has a critical supply problem here that they are not acknowledging or fixing.

And Philip, I notice you allowed ilaurel to post their URL but have deleted mine in the past. I guess you only allow URL’s to web sites that agree with what you say….

Posted By Shawn King, Danbury, CT : July 25, 2008 9:56 am

Yeah there’s no iphone where i live in Cincinnati. Check out my blog on my iPhone experience. ilaurel.wordpress.com

Posted By ilaurel : July 24, 2008 3:21 pm

And - there is also this (from conference call):

Toni Sacconaghi - Sanford Bernstein

A, can you confirm that there hasn’t been a production or component shortage issue to date? And then B, if that hasn’t been the case, why wouldn’t have business practice suggest that waiting to ramp capacity and launching in way that could have been more satisfying to more customers had been prudent?

“Timothy D. Cook

Toni, as I said before, the demand has been staggering almost in every country that we’ve shipped in. And on the manufacturing ramp, it is right on schedule. We’re very pleased with the trajectory of it and the confidence that that gives us to — or it gives us the confidence to launch in 20 additional countries in August.

Toni Sacconaghi - Sanford Bernstein

I guess the question is why do you have such confidence that you can fulfill demand in 20 countries when you weren’t able to fill demand in 22 countries at initial launch for more than two days?

Timothy D. Cook

I’m not predicting the demand. Demand is very difficult to predict with a new product of its sort, that has a new price point and it’s a revolutionary product. But we do have confidence over the supply and it’s the confidence over supply that allows us to continue to expand.

Posted By jmmx, Portland, OR : July 24, 2008 12:42 pm

Thank you for the information

BUT - Why do you have to start with such a negative first paragraph? Really!

How about something like this:

“After being overwhelmed by the enormous demand for the new iPhone 3G that led to widespread sellouts of the new cell phone across the country, Apple appears to be slowly catching up with supplies.”

I have not spoken to anyone who waited and could not get one, but I am sure that an overwhelming majority understand the issue.

You might even quote from the conference call:

“Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray

Good afternoon. Obviously the iPhone is off to a good launch and seemed to be in line across the country and we’re down to 2% of your stores have iPhones. Can you give us any sort of expectations beyond you’re doing your best to refill the channel in terms of when we should expect to see a little bit broader inventory?

Timothy D. Cook

The response to the new iPhone 3G has been stunning. As Peter said in his opening comments, we sold our 1 millionth iPhone just three days after the launch, and to contrast that, it took us 74 days to sell 1 million of the first generation iPhone and almost two years to sell our 1 millionth iPod, and so we are thrilled with what we see.

As you say, there are a number of stock outs. This is a factor of the overwhelming demand. I am very pleased with the production ramp, very pleased with the trajectory of it. We’re shipping units as fast as we can and obviously we’re trying to catch the demand and serve our customers.

We are confident enough in the production ramp that we will be launching about 20 additional countries on August 22nd, which would bring our total to over 40, and we still expect to be selling the iPhone in over 70 countries later this calendar year.

Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray

Would you be launched in some of those other countries if you expected stock outage in the U.S.?

Timothy D. Cook

You know, as I said, I like what I’m seeing in the production ramp and I am confident in our ability to supply. I’m not going to predict when supply will meet demand. We’ve been selling the phone for 10 days and so this is a very difficult thing to do with this level of data. “

Posted By jmmx, Portland, OR : July 24, 2008 12:14 pm

Waiting in line is largely a function of getting signed up to AT&T. That in turn was caused by the huge numbers of phones that were being unlocked.

The two phenomenon (i.e., long lines and lack of phones) need to be examined separately, not together.

People need to practice patience - a hard thing in this world of immediate gratification.

P.S. - It’s worth the wait!

Posted By Sacto Joe, Sacramento, CA : July 24, 2008 11:52 am

Joe, the AT&T stores apparently don’t have any so a tool wouldn’t be very useful…

Posted By rodney, raleigh : July 24, 2008 11:38 am

Did your iPhone correct you to “piece” or do you not know the proper way to spell “peace”?

I also waited in line the Monday after July 11th. Roughly 60-70 people ahead of me equated to a 4 hour wait. But that was the day they sold everything out so I’m happy, as well.

Posted By David, Dallas, TX : July 24, 2008 11:31 am

It’s lovely that the stock problems may be getting better, but I’d love it even more if the lines were getting shorter. I called the Fifth Ave NYC store yesterday afternoon and was told that the lines were four hours long.

Posted By Justin, New York, NY : July 24, 2008 9:44 am

Now if we could get the data for the AT&T stores we would be all set!

Posted By Joe, Portland ME : July 24, 2008 9:40 am

Glad I waited in line. As I type this by the pool. Piece out.

Posted By cho cha : July 24, 2008 9:32 am
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Philip Elmer-DeWittSilicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
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