Apple iPhone: 8 million and counting

**Comments should be sub-noted with what related stocks the person owns. This is all about the Money.**

I like my iPhone and regularly use my Netter’s Anatomy application (only available mobile-electronically on the iphone) and other medically related apps daily. I could only do about 15% of the stuff I do now with my Treo(now retired) and none of it on my company blackberry or on any nokia.
I am witnessing a shift in my peers as we reitre our treos (often coupled with nokias for better telephony) and pick up iphones. The company (unnamed for obvious investment rules) is weighing iphone adoption due demand(high), cost(less than RIM) and security issues(unknown).

However many have been sold is insignificant compared to the slow but steady replacement of other devices in smartphone sectors.

I own the following related stocks:
Apple, Microsoft, Nokia, and Google.
Sold Palm in 2004.
Sold Blackberry in fall of 2007.

@ Intosh,
your resistance proves its a revolution. Go Man, GO! Resist change!!
Don’t believe the Earth revolves around the sun - Stay Heliotropic!
The world is not round; it’s flat and that is why we don’t fall off!
This isn’t a revolution ’cause revolutions are cool and I am cool so I would be part of it…or am I late or maybe stubborn because I didn’t call it first.

Revolutions aren’t perfect, never have been and never will be. They are just a little bit of a new direction in thinking. In science and technology most of them skip right over the glassy-eyed heads of Intoshtards who would stampede like numb lemmings to prevent the possibility of thinking differently.

Apple is not mecca and Jobs is not the messiah.
Neither is RIM or MS or Sony or Motorola or Google, etc.

When companies like General Dynamics are having discussions about shifting to iPhones for Nat’l Security reasons, it is probably safe to say that something is different.

Different isn’t always better, but it is always different.

:phhhhtt

Hi my name is Paul and I live in the Sheffield Uk just can`t wait till I get an Apple iPhone hoping to make it 800.001 soon with my free iPhone .www.iphone-ps3-xbox360almostfree.co.uk

@Synthmeister:

1. So? The iPhone still crashes. The browser still dies. Google it.

2. Cool feature but hardly useful, let alone “revolutionary”.

3. Other cell phone manufacturers have app stores too. (That comment about Google shows how a Mactard you are.)

4. And that’s an argument for how the iPhone is revolutionary??? Do you know what that word means? Touch screen is a very limited control interface for gaming. Another sign of how a big Mactard you are.

5. You will the Big Mactard of the Month award for that comment. ’nuff said.

6. RIM has 15 millions *business* subscribers (they shipped more than 40 millions phones). How many iPhone business users does Apple have? With an old OS, Nokia held 45% of the worldwide smartphones market in Q1 of 2008. Second place was RIM with 13.4%. RIM is 1st place in the US, with 42%. Apple had 5.3% worldwide; 20% in the US. (http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=688116). It’s typical Mactard behavior to belittle the competition when in reality it’s Apple who’s trying to become a legit contender.

7. How does that make the iPhone “revolutionary”??? Besides, supplies are so ridiculously limited in some countries, it’s no surprise it’s out of stock. Ever heard of “Playing hard to get”?

“people are going to buy the iPhone like gangbusters for the next five to ten years” That clearly shows how a juvenile Mactard you are.

CrashPad - try to not to be mad at Apple for selling more iPhones than you wanted them to. Just pick whatever number you like … I can be one of the dozens of the poor souls that Apple bullied into buying their awful product if it makes you feel better.

“Nokia sold 14.6 million smartphones in the first quarter of this year.”

Nokia had a Worldwide distribution in place, which Apple is only getting now.

Lets compare Apples to Apples. How many “smartphones” did Nokia sold last quarter in the US vs iPhones ???

Now start thinking .. again.

A number on the phone indicating manufactured is not sold units. Get real folks. Apple does this all the time, the push them out the door to vendors, counting each one as sold units. But really there is know real evidence of what is sold. Apple does not disclose this. ATT says nothing. Yes apple will push 8illion out their doors, but what is the real end user numbers.
Man this Apple love is very sickening

yes you can tether iPhone to a laptop and a lot more

Nokia sold 14.6 million smartphones in the first quarter of this year.

Of 32 million smartphones sold worldwide in the first quarter of 2008 no more than 2 million were iPhones.

Now start thinking.

I have been using PC, MAC, & Unix systems & OS for since 1983 and have been using handheld platforms since 1997 starting with Casio’s first palmtop, Palm (multiple), Sony Clie (multiple, Nokia 770 internet tablet, Nokia E72, Treo (including the WinMobile version), and the Blackberry. And I am not a techie mushroom.

My preference is for effective, efficient and cutting edge technology. My apple IIe provided that along with my Atari in the early 80’s and My home built Win NT 3.1 system in 1995. In 1997 Compaq’s PC Companion and the Palm Pilot were bringing something new and functional to mobile computing.

From those early days people have been looking for more in their hand. Palm provided a platform that programmers could build apps for, MS brought a piece (Mobile Office, Exchange), Sony brought a piece (music & camera on the Clie), Nokia’s presence pushed everyone towards cellular capabilities, RIM brought Push eMail. But all the smartphones and handhelds have been based on two design models with small tweaks and hybrids. Everyone of the evolutions is somewhere between the Palm Pilot and the Compaq Pc Companion. There have been some great uses discovered in the process; i.e. the Army purchased thousands of the HP WinCE paltops for mobile logistics tracking in the late 1990’s.

(*) The iPhone is more like the Apple IIe, the MS Windows 95, the Palm Pilot, the GameBoy, the Garmin, the iPod, & the original BlackBerry. None of these were alone in their markets, nor were they perfect to start, but they were revolutionary and so their faults were accepted. They each did something new with technology that changed the direction of technology.

The iPhone has changed the idea of what people think they can do with handheld computing. Game developers making games for the PSP are porting the same games to the iphone. The difference between the iphone and other cellphones is like the Xbox to the original Nintendo. Web-developers are building websites that utilize the advanced browser capabilities of the iphone, and they are doing so at a rate never done for any other handheld platform let alone any other phone. Developers are writing applications constantly, both for the large itunes consumer base, but also for the large jail-broke community in a business model that challenges previous arrangements. GPS services are rapidly moving away from just the simple street and business location uses to social networking in ways that heretofore have only been talked about. Network administrators are conducting remote system administration and service support form the palm of their hands instead of having to lug their laptops everywhere for even small problems. Consumers are digitizing homes and controlling it from their phones.

Apple did not invent any thing new with the iphone, but what they did was provide a single item that has allowed a whole host of creative ideas to cross new boundaries and invent new solutions because they have a tool to make them reality on. That is what made the above listed(*) items revolutionary and that is why the iphone is starting a revolution. It may not end up being the best of what is to come, but it is definitely the first in a new direction and the the length of time it takes other companies to admit it is new and different and possibly better will directly determine the amount of share they gain in the new market and slowly lose from the old market.
If the phone-wallet system in use in Japan and in Finland finds its way on to the iPhone in the next year the revolution might get out of control. And this is not to unlikely since you already can buy some things from your phone here in the U.S.

I just wonder who will develop the next advancement that I put in my pocket.

Speaking of mobile phones … I went the other day at several wireless providers to upgrade my wireless service including my phone. I looked at the iPhone as well but in my opinion this is just another smart phone like many others in the market. I thought of buying an iPhone for web browsing, but the feature didn’t live up to my expectations in the sense that reading a web page isn’t much better, or sometimes even worse than on other devices. The fact that the web pages are not reformatted for the mobile device screen size is painful sometimes. If you want to buy a smart phone, try them all. Not sure why somebody will count IMEI’s for iPhones but not for other devices. Not even sure that IMEI is serial for a specific model.

He said 1% of the market, which was 1 billion at the time, the market has grown to over 1.15 billion now

Yes Tom from San Jose, I can surf the web like you do on your iphone with full internet functionality and I can expand and shrink the page with ease with the picsal browser. Also multi-cpu technology is coming from both Apple and Microsoft so don’t speak too soon. Most of the OS’s you talk about can do all the same things if coded to do so, so yeah I think they all are very similar in a way.

Apple NEVER said they “hope” to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of the year! They said they were “confident” that they would sell 10 million iPhones by the end of the year and Apple never under delivers!

PED is correct about 10 million in calendar ‘08. Watch the last 30 seconds of this clip from the January 2007 keynote where iPhone was announced: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vi5ckVadRdU

The inference of 5.6 million built of course assumes that Apple uses all available IMEI numbers in a block before moving on to the next one. That’s what the evidence of the original suggests but it’s not certain, and definitely not always true.

On the other hand, that latest sold iPhone was manufactured in week 34, so we should assume another 1.4M have been built by the end of August (2 more weeks), making 7 million built and shipped.

One has to be clear when claiming there is nothing “new”. The Ford Model T also had tires, steering wheels, and engine and a cabin and glass windows too, nothing new when compared against a simple car of today. All the same right?

DOS is also an operating system, there is nothing new when compared against Windows or Mac OS/X or UNIX right? All the same? Symbian too is another cell phone OS and so it is no different, nothing new too right? Do you know how many of today’s OS can make full use of multiple CPU hardware? That does not matter, by your logic, right? It has been done so nothing new?

Thank goodness those of us innovating in Silicon Valley are never short of new ideas, else we will all still think Nokia makes the best phones.

Dear Eric,

“Millions” of Apps on your MS and Berry? Really? Can browse the web? As in full HTML support? Displaying full web page? As in having a large enough screen to not kill my eyes? As in I can use my fingers to expand or shrink a page as I read?

DO you mean all those things were already available for all these years?

Care to respond?

I carry a Berry and an iPhone by the way, so be precise if you want to speak to the Berry or the iPhone.

My windows mobile device never crashes and always works. Once again you have to remember that an OS does not run on air, it does require hardware(ie circuits)to run effectively and I would never put up with a phone that I had to take the battery out to restart. I really don’t feel like having Microsoft bring the hardware in-house. I think being a platform company brings more competition but also has its drawbacks. My samsung works fine and without issue, so I guess you may have dropped yours too many times or something, that will always take its toll. Also tether on a windows mobile does not depend on your carrier, it can be achieved on any service. The iphone is neat, but not revolutionary, I have been using a very similar device for years. Nothing new here.

BTW - my first paragraph implies “BY the end of 08″ = “from day-1 until 31 Dec, 08″

Sorry

@ PED & Pete

I think if you listen to the actual Keynote, Jobs SAID 10M by end of 2008. At least that is the way most english speakers would interpret it. It was, however, not completely clear.

Later clarifications were indeed unequivocal that Calendar year 08 was the intended reference.

So Pete - I see your point, but PED is also right - for a change!
(PED = just kidding dude! :)

The iPhone will be revolutionary.

1. Unix grade OS in the palm of your hand.
2. Multi-touch—no one else has it.
3. App store—complete end to end development, distribution, marketing and storefront for everyman developer. (Google’s app store is a accident waiting to happen.)
4. Along with the iPod touch, the iPhone could easily become a major player in handheld gaming. Mark my words. It’s ten times easier and cheaper to develop, sell and make money for the iPod touch, iPhone.
5. iPod touch & VOIP. ’nuff said.
6. People still forget that after 10 years, RIM only has 15 million subscribers, MS WINce is still crapp and Nokia can only dream of a 21st century OS. (Palm is already on life support.) Where is the competition.
7. In spite of it’s many “flaws” Apple could barely keep them in stock with a handful of countries online. By the end of the year, the iPhone will be available in over 70 countries and rumor has it that China & Russia are close to coming on board.

Whether you agree with any of my points are not, people are going to buy the iPhone like gangbusters for the next five to ten years. Yes, Apple is “losing” iPod sales to the iPhone but somehow, I doubt they are real concerned about that.

Eric,

Guess how many times I’ve had to pull the battery out of my iphone because windows mobile has crashed? None! I’ve had every smart phone out there and none even comes close to the iphone. I’m not one of the big Apple fans, just being honest. Don’t bash something that you know nothing about. You can read about it but until you put your hands on it for a few days then you have no idea.

All well and good that they’re selling a lot of iPhones, but WS is hardly impressed with these numbers. The more iPhones they sell, the more the stock goes down. Did Apple fans track iPods like this when it first came out?

It seems like some people have a lot of time on their hands. They could just as easily wait until Apple announces an official number. Who are they trying to impress with this advance numbers nonsense? Does the average investor really care about how many iPhones are sold? I just hope they’re also selling desktop computers as well. The iPhone is just a small part of their business and has probably eaten into iPod sales as well.

Apple will easily exceed it’s goal of 10 million and go into the 13 million range, but if it doesn’t help the stock price rise, then it means nothing.

In response to Eric.
You seem to imply that phones have been in large numbers using a desktop grade OS and that people have been using internet on these phones in a significant way…. if so, why has internet traffic skyrocketed since the intro of the iPhone? Why is it so few people actually have 3rd party apps on their smart phones? AS for tethering that has more to do with the carrier than Apple. You are the type that appears to feel that as long as the parts are there, the phones must be the same. Reminds me of the Ford commercials which used to compare bottom-end Fords to Mercedes because they both had as many cylinders and leather seats. Try looking at the whole picture and you might better understand the success of iPhone.

@Eric,

“Where’s it revolutionary?”

Well, take August Web Traffic Share for example:

Msoft IE: approx 93%
Apple Safari: approx 5.5%
Linux: .90%
iPhone/iPod: .48%

ALL OTHER MOBILE’S: Less than .01%

How’s that?

I am delighted that the iPhone is doing so well … it is wonderful to see that a company can be creative, take chances and bring change to the cellular industry even with wave after wave of people very vocally claiming to the whole world it couldn’t possibly succeed, and always with a ready list of what it lacks (I imagine that eventually, when all else has been delivered, some people will still not like it because there is a partially bitten apple on the back of the device).
Keep taking chances Apple … you’ll know you are doing well when companies keep scrambling to make their products look and act more like yours.

Didn’t the RAZR sell more? It was $300 when it first arrived minus a $100 rebate. I can’t remember how fast the price dropped. Of course, I replaced the RAZR with a Treo 650, then just replaced the Treo with the iPhone 3G. I haven’t had a single problem with it. BTW, it takes less than 3 minutes to setup Exchange, and I wasn’t even used to the keyboard yet.

Revolutionary?? Huh? Ok the design in cool, I get that. I don’t see what is so revolutionary about the device. Hate to break it to you, but us people in business have been using devices like these for years now, ie. Windows Mobile and Blackberry. I can do everything you can do on your iPhone and actually even more. Can you tether your laptop to your iPhone for internet? NO. I have been doing that for 3 years now. Email, Web, pictures, millions of Apps all on my Windows Mobile for years now. Please explain the revolution because being cool and stylish oh and touch is really not revolutionary. Anyone have an answer to that?

Off the charts. This device is a year old. They’ve sold over 10 million units their first year. Unbelievable. The revenue implications (more importantly the cash implications) are crazy. But the execution skills required to pull this off on a global scale is what makes this so impressive; and it’s those skills that will make Apple the greatest company of the 21st century. We are still at the base of the hockey stick with Apple folks, because the iPhone is revolutionary, not evolutionary. It is the next generation platform and ecosystem for commerce, payments, and communication. And this ecosystem will permeate throughout all of their hardware (desktops, macbooks, ipods, apple tv’s, iphones, etc).

If you check the record (more carefully), you’ll discover that Steve Jobs originally stated that AAPL’s goal was to sell 10 million iPhones from first production (July 2007) through calendar 2008.

Using your numbers (3.71 million in 2007 and about 8 million so far in 2008), it appears that AAPL has ALREADY achieved its 10MM target!

Suggest that you check the record concerning AAPL’s 10MM iPhone target and comfirm that AAPL likely has achieved its target (in fact, according to your estimates, from first production through August 2008, it appears that AAPL’s production volume — and likely sales volume — came close to 12 million iPhones.)

- - - -

ex ped: Sorry, Pete, but you are wrong about that. This question has been asked and answered, in one case directly by Apple COO Tim Cook. From the transcript of the Q1 ‘07 earnings call:

We’ll go now to Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray.

Gene, calendar year ‘08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote. The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year.

Now’s a good time to buy AAPL. It’s down below $170 due to the end-week concerns over oil, Gustav, and the Finance sector.

(I’m biased because I already own the stock. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions.)