Apple’s new target: 12.8 million iPhones in 2008?

Language Bee: “Points that are “mute” go unheard. Comments that are “moot” are subject to debate, dispute, or uncertainty.”

You missed part of the definiton…the part that’s most applicable here…

“The adjective moot is originally a legal term going back to the mid-16th century. It derives from the noun moot, in its sense of a hypothetical case argued as an exercise by law students. Consequently, a moot question is one that is arguable or open to debate. But in the mid-19th century people also began to look at the hypothetical side of moot as its essential meaning, and they started to use the word to mean “of no significance or relevance.” Thus, a moot point, however debatable, is one that has no practical value.”

I thought Apple’s latest hardware was pretty decent. Here
is a page with some detail.

They’ve it something big and apple will at some point hold a major share of the cell phone market.

Free Apple Gear

Sorry, Im not ready to give up my Blackberry Curve just yet! http://www.anonweb.net.tc

The iPhone is JUNK !!

Viva the Blackbery !!!
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NOT !

10M or 12.8M?

This question would actually matter if analysts could use the numbers in their earnings estimates. 10M iPhones would bring AAPL approximately $3.5 billion in profits or nearly $4 per share. That would equate to 80% of AAPL’s earnings over the previous four quarters.

In short, the profits from the iPhones are not being properly accounted for in future estimates. Whether or not AAPL sells 10M or 12.8M is a silly question for anyone to judge success. Both numbers should be considered ‘out of the ballpark’.

The iPhone is a great product, but it only competes against Smartphones like Blackberry which is only a few hundred million phones per year sold. If Apple wants to compete against cellphones which is an over a billion units sold industry, Apple will have to develop a cheaper phone that doesn’t require a data plan. Nokia dominates the cellphone market with cheap cellphones that only do calling without all the extra options of camera, mobile web, etc.

What is really important is the market share. When Steve Jobs says the goal is to have 1% of the market, he means that the goal is to be recognized as an important actor on this market. It is vital, for the future of Iphone family, to reach a significant market share. The number of phones sold will only determine the short-term revenue/benefits, but the market share will determine the ability for Apple to be a long-term player on the market and to attract developers, music/video editors and make web site creators take into account the limitations of Iphone (no flash, …). What is surprising is that he did not mention the market share of smartphones he would like to reach. 10% ? 25 % ?

10 million or 12 million?

Apple hopes to sell that many iPhones in a year. Sounds good. Now let’s see how much we can over analyze this for a year and pick apart every word mentioned about it like it had some hidden meaning to life or something.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

iphone is great !!! Every time I am Happy, I buy some thing from App store ! just bought Recorder, it’s amazing ! Sang a song for my friend and sent it to her via email, now she is in love with me !!!!

To this date, I see people lining up to buy iphone at the apple store !

Apple stock is going to split soon. No kidding ! That’s the reason APPL’s forecast for September end quarter is $ 1 per share ! AAPL will surprise everyone that they already sold 10M iphone by end of September and will creat WOW factor !!!!

Does it really matter?? 10 million, 12 million, either way that’s a LOT of phones for any company to sell. Let’s just say I’m happy with my frequent acquisitions of AAPL since it was trading at $13/share. :)

This is silly. At the time of the keynote 1% would have been 9.57 Million phones. But Jobs didn’t say that, he said 10.

If no one held to him to a strict interpretation of “1%” then, it’s folly to try to do so now, especially since the goal was set nearly two years ago, not yesterday.

let me get this right. web journa-lights endlessly question Apple’s ability to hit 10 million in 2008. same bunch of slow learners finally realise they’re caught on the wrong side of the argument, conveniently seek to redefine target.

puh-lease.

Hiya PED, how’s your Sunday treating you so far? Besides usual flames from APPL fanz.

The pertinent quote from Steve’s prezo is towards the end: “this is exactly what we’re going to try to do in 2008, our first full year in the market: is grab 1% market share and go from there”. And yes, calendar 2008, since Steve’s goals were expressed in terms of market share and not corporate accounting. Tim Cook’s comment was “the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year” so, if anything, supported Steve’s goal.

So yes, clearly the original objective was 1%. Apple would know as well as anybody that the market for cell phones was growing. So the standard they should be held to is 12.8M.

But that’s not the reality on the ground. The general perception was that the goal was 10M. Various news articles I’ve searched for uses the 10M number, not the 1%; the online news “betting” site hubdub.com quotes the goal as 10M; Macworld; New York Times; Wired; The Register; ZDNet; etc. Indeed, your own reporting (http://tinyurl.com/684at5). Apple happily let that lower bar stand. I guess “10M” just sounds bigger and better than “1 percent”, even if the reverse would be the case.

And contrary to the usual flamez you’re gettåing, it’s not at all clear at this point that Apple will clear the 1% hurdle, which is why PED brings it up.

To be fair to Apple, I, with many others, was a little puzzled at why he chose the 1B global phone market as the benchmark. The premium smartphone market is much smaller than that. So whatever sales numbers are announced this coming Tuesday, I would expect the frame of reference will be different this time.

ex ped: Hey, Peter. Always nice to hear from you.

Steve was definitely emphasizing 1% market share, not 10 million, in this portion. Either way they’ll make/surpass their goal this year. Not sure why this constitutes “news” however.

Dear Fortune, Hire me please. No. I’m serious.

I’d never considered the possibility that I might find work as a columnist for a major news organization, but this outstanding piece of journalistic integrity has opened my eyes to the extent of the opportunities at my fingertips.

I’m confident that I can fill a down day in the news cycle with equal vigor to dear Elmer-DeWitt, spewing forth as yet unheard reexaminations of mundane corporate communication.

I look forward to your acceptance of my offer and a long career at your wonderful publication.

Philip:

You are seeking views on what Apple’s target is today from comments made several months ago. Using a symbolic 1% of global market share as a benchmark for purposes of illustration.

I suggest the 10 million units meant 10 million units and suspect Apple’s non-publicly stated goal at this point in time is well beyond ten million iPhones shipped in 2008 and 1% of global market share.

The 10 million unit goal may have been seen as unbridled optimism at the time it was first stated and the global share statistic was used to justify the reasonableness of the goal.

Apple will ship its 10 millionth iPhone just before the end of September or soon after.

The question is no longer what Steve Jobs might have meant when making the arbitrary sales benchmark public, but how much the iPhone is now changing the manner in which people see the use of cell phones as no longer a necessary and utilitarian voice communication device but as a handheld computing device designed for use as a voice, data and personal entertainment solution.

In looking at the recent comments from Nokia and its public warning of the company’s anticipated performance shortfall (due in large part to the global emergence of the 3G iPhone), the iPhone’s success must be measured not only in unit sales performance but also in the ways it is moving an industry that had stalled in its pace of innovation into a new era of relevance and product development.

Robert (a/k/a DawnTreader)

ex ped: Welcome, Robert. Agreed.

Mr Elmer-Dewitt is obviously paid by the word.

Another attempt to misintepret Apple.

Steve Jobs meant 10 million iPhones in 2008 - using 1 billion cell phones as the market size.

But Apple always underestimates how they will do. They give conservative numbers. This allows Apple to WOW people when it does achieve its numbers.

From what I see, Apple will blow those numbers away. Period.

The App Store will be a significant source of revenue also. If it becomes a 1 Billion dollar market, then Apple has gross revenue of 300 million dollars. If it is more, then Apple makes more.

This will then bring about a halo effect on all of Apple’s products, generating even more profits.

The stock goes up and down depending on what pundits say in order to drive the stock down so they can make profit on the stock. Expect the stock to tank after this coming Apple Event. The naysayers will try to drive it down to make profit for themselves and their clients. I always look at this downturn as a buying opportunity.

And next week, we can examine a statement Jobs made in 1983 that might answer the age old question of just how many angels can dance on the head of a pin :)

He said, 1% would equal 10 Mil units, not 10 million units would equal 1%…..so I believe he was saying 1% of market share, but I think they meant to go by the 10 mil number….although I agree with other comments, Apple will be way over both the 10 mil and 1% mark so it’s a moot point.

Jobs knew that some smart elec would look to misinterpret what he meant and wrote : 1% = 10 million.

Now what is it that you think he “meant”?????

the iPhone is a CASH generation machine! 10M iPhone would mean about $5B or about 2.5B in profits. Imagine that, their iPhones’ profits alone is bigger than…well, over half of the companies in the world has revenue less than a billion! And this is a product Apple just came out merely a year old. The biggest shock to me is how well their Apps Store is doing too! In one month they sold more app downloads than the entire mobile market did the entire year!!!

Once the actual 3G iPhone sales and Apps sales are announced the investors will be pleasantly surprise and the big money will start to move in. I believe we will see AAPL move up from the current pullback similar to this time in 2006 when it pulled back from $86 all time high before the actual announcement of the iPhone.

PED, thanks for posting something on a Sunday…I’m waiting for the announcement on Tuesday. The stock has been terrible the past few weeks (like the broader market). I don’t expect AAPL to be impervious to overall market forces, but I’m surprised they are being beat on as bad as many others that lack such a strong future. It’s interesting that there really isn’t a whole lot of buzz about Tuesday…maybe we’ve all seen the pump-and-dump AAPL news cycle so many times that we’re worn out. Low expectations and few rumors could set the stage for making Tuesday turn out to be a real surprise. I’m hopeful, anyway.

Does it matter, as long as Apple makes tons of money and what is it to you whether it is 10m or 12m, you think you gonna get a share of the profits?

Danvers: Yeah, exactly my sentiment. But wait — there’s something more: They gotta write something about Apple, cuz that’s what’s read.

I guess you gotta write abut something.

Since Steve Jobs and Apple could have no idea what global 2008 sales would be for the entire cellphone market, i would find it hard to believe that they meant anything more than 10 million. Of course, there are a couple of wrinkles to consider: 1: apple sold ZERO iphones for over a month during the transition to the iphone 3g. 2: the iphone 3g is selling MUCH faster than the 1st generation iphone AND it is selling globally. Bottom line…. apple is selling iphones by the millions and making profits overall by the billions.

Points that are “mute” go unheard. Comments that are “moot” are subject to debate, dispute, or uncertainty.

He said 1% referring to to the 2006 number. He also specifically said 10M units. But they will probably have close to 10M 3G alone by the end of September. So it will be a moot point.

By 12/31/08, they will be at least 15-20M, if not more. they still have china and Xmas, and they are already at their 10M goal. this thing is off the charts - unprecedented in what it will accomplish.

Well, I think he is going for 1%, but Tim Cook, Apple’s COO,
has said the goal was 10 million and repeats the phase that Apple is comfortable with the 10 million unit goal at each conference and earnings conference call.

Either way, they’ll sell more than 12.8 million easily, even without China , so the point is mute.

What does it matter? They will easily beat both numbers anyway.