Analyst: Mac sales up 30% this quarter
Sales of Macintosh computers continue to grow year-to-year, but their rate of growth is slowing, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster reported Monday in a note issued to clients.
Based on data released at midday by the NPD Group, Munster estimates that Apple will sell 2.8 to 2.9 million Macs and 11 million iPods in its fourth fiscal quarter, which ends Sept. 30.
The Mac numbers represent year-to-year unit growth of 29% to 34%, somewhat higher than the Street’s estimate of 25%, but down considerably from the 43% year-to-year growth the Mac racked up in July.
Munster offers two reasons why Mac sales decelerated in August:
- The Macs product line is overdue for a refresh. “The portables are late in their product lifecycles,” he writes, but adds that he expects new MacBooks in October or November. (A report last week set a date for their arrival: Oct. 14.)
- The weak consumer environment is “negatively impacting Apple’s business,” something that’s not likely to get better soon given the events of this past weekend. (See here.)
Munster’s estimate of 11 million iPods for the quarter represents a year-to-year increase of 8%, considerably less than the double- and triple-digit growth of recent years, but comfortably ahead of the Street’s 6%. “Given concerns regarding iPod weakness,” Munster writes, “we believe the segment’s outperformance relative to Street expectations is a positive.”
Plugging the latest data into his spreadsheet, Munster makes some predictions about what Apple (AAPL) is likely to report in October when it releases its fourth-quarter earnings:
- Unit sales of 2.9 million Macs, 11 million iPods, and 4.1 million iPhones
- Gross margin of 32%, a shade higher than the 31.5% guidance Apple offered last quarter
- Earnings per share of $1.19 (versus guidance of EPS $1.00)
- Revenues of $8.5 billion (versus guidance of $7.8 billion)
I agree with the general sentiment of Nodack’s post but he/she seems to misunderstand the concept of acceleration/deceleration. The deceleration refers to the fact that Mac sales, while still increasing, did so at a slower rate (30% versus 43%). The above is actually the very definition of deceleration.
Best Buy declines by 19% in the second quarter. That would be decelerating. It’s hard for me to call Apple up 30% a deceleration. You have to really twist the numbers to try to make that out as a negative during one of the slowest times of the year and during a scary weak economy. Apple up 30%? I’ll take that in a heartbeat.
The stock down $60 from its high. That’s a concern for me, but Apple’s sales haven’t declined at all and in fact it’s up 30%+ every time to where it’s just a given. It’s so expected that people like Phil are calling sales that are up 30% over the previous year a deceleration and asking what the reasons for the slump are. How many companies would kill for a slump like that in these times?
I like a company that has 30% growth in a product line 5% above estimates and its reported as a negative……..
i agree with the previous comment. i am a HUGE apple fan. when the macbook refresh is launched i will purchase a new macbook for my fiance, a macbook pro for myself, and an ipod touch. i will never go back to a pc due to windows. apple is by far superior when it comes to technology and software. my current macbook has been the best computer i have every owned by far (and i have had 6 desktops, 3 laptops, and a tablet pc since 2000).
as a 2 yr. consumer that owns several apple products, and quite happy with all of them, i can’t understand, other than hedge funds being responsible, why apple is not revered as one of our great companies in the u.s. i was in one of our san diego locations this weekend and it looked like crowds during the christmas holiday season. gimme a break, apple is an innovator, not a copycat.
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Silicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
Apple has it together and the stock in my opinion will pop
I saw this same negative garbage come out before and after the first release of the IPhone….. The crappy reports that came out tried to beat Apple down as far as they could and Apple came back every-time with excellent numbers.
Now it is happening again. In a bad economy it is amazing that hundreds of people lined up in lines at the Apple store and waited hours (I was one of them) to get the phone. One mall had over 500 people in line for the 3G phone …. What other product other than a video game release can you say people came in multitudes and waited hours to buy a cell phone?
Because of the Aplle 3G phone release I ended up switching all our home computers to MAc. We bought 3 powerbooks, 4 iphones, and plan on buying the next generation power books when they are released next month. Sorry PC you day in the sun is over..
Not only are the sales at Apple doing very well, but Apple stated the App store alone was generating over 1 million a day in sales. No wonders the shorts are trying to hammer the stock down as low as they can because they want to ride the BULL as high as it will go when they stop.