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September 22, 2008, 8:25 am

Analyst: Apple will sell 5 million iPhones in Q4

Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, one of the most bullish — and closely watched — of the more than two dozen analysts who track Apple Inc., has raised his estimates for the company’s fourth quarter, which ends next Tuesday, Sept. 30.

Based on the latest retail sales data from the NPD Group, Munster writes in a report to clients issued Monday that he is “incrementally more confident” in Apple’s unit sales for its three main product lines and has raised his targets as follows:

  • Mac units of 2.8 million (vs. 2.5 million previously) in Q4
  • iPod units of 11 million (vs. 10.8 million)
  • iPhone units of 5 million (vs. 4.1 million)

Added to the 2.4 million first-generation iPhones Apple sold in the first six months of 2008, that would bring the total number iPhones sold this year to 7.4 million.

Apple has repeatedly expressed confidence that it would sell at least 10 million iPhones in calendar 2008. Reports in early August that Apple’s Asian partners were turning out iPhones at the rate of 800,000 a week led some investors to speculate that the company might reach that goal before the end of September.

If Munster is right, either those reported manufacturing rates were wrong or production has slowed since August.

Munster also notes the iPhone this quarter will, for the first time, account for a “meaningful percentage” of booked revenue. Last quarter, which ended in June, the iPhone accounted for only 4% of booked revenue; this quarter, he estimates, it will account for 21%. To reflect this change, he is publishing a new metric that assumes that the full value of each iPhone sale is accounted for in the quarter in which it is sold (rather than spread out over two years, the life of the standard iPhone contract).

This new metric significantly boosts Apple’s earnings per share, at least on Piper Jaffray’s spreadsheets. For example, Munster on Monday increased his estimate of Apple’s fourth quarter earnings 13%, from his previous estimate of $1.04 a share to $1.17 a share (the Street estimate is $1.11 a share). But under his new metric, booked EPS would come in at $1.60 a share, up 15%. He summarizes these changes in the table at right.

Munster’s price target for calendar year 2009 remains unchanged at $250 a share (based on a booked EPS of $9.14 and a multiple of 27.4). That gives the stock considerable room for upside growth. Apple (AAPL) shares closed on Friday at 140.91, having traded as low as 121.5 the day before.

5 million iPhones vs. 11 million iPods – that would mean that the iPhone is already outselling the iPod in terms of revenue (which is clouded by Apple’s quirky bookkeeping on iPhone revenue). The phone business is now bigger than the music business for Apple. Who would have thought this would happen so soon?

Posted By Tom Ross, Berlin : September 24, 2008 3:24 pm

Apple should use their cash to purchase Sun Microsystems which will allow them to grow and compete in the enterprise. This is the only way they can compete seriously with HP & Dell in the business world.

Posted By David, Salt Lake City, UT : September 23, 2008 11:45 pm

So you sell a lot of phones. Apple’s stock is tanking along with the rest of the market. So sad Appelites, but with a price earnings ratio of almost twice that of competitors and no dividend there are better investments out there.

Posted By James Cahn, Sarasota FL : September 22, 2008 10:54 pm

That’s still not very Macs. With all the iPods and iPhones they sell, their Mac marketshare could be increasing a lot more than this paltry number.

Hopefully, they’ll introduce much cheaper laptops with DVD burners for the base machine. Otherwise, Apple is pathetic.

BTW, I’ve been using Macs since 1990.

Pat

Posted By pat, seattle, wa : September 22, 2008 10:02 pm

haha, sorry-that wasn’t directed to you, but to the commentor, Chris from Salt Lake.

I know you know ;p

Posted By AAPLWatch SF, CA : September 22, 2008 2:34 pm

Christ, people are still trotting out the “Steve meant 2007 sales too!” whine?

People, if you don’t trust the writer, go read the past post-earnings conference calls. Oppenheimer has REPEATEDLY clarified the goal as 10 million iPhones in CALENDAR 2007. Stop trying to parse an offhand comment Jobs made at Macworld, and listen to what Apple has said since.

It is ironic the commentor blames DeWitt’s reporting for the stock’s “volatility”, when he obviously doesn’t even keep track of the company. (If he did, he’d realize the 10 million iPhones thing has been done to death)

ex ped: It’s Mr. Elmer-DeWitt to you, AAPLWatch SF. And if you read his column you would know that he is well aware that the 10 million iPhone thing has been done to death.

Posted By AAPLWatch SF, CA : September 22, 2008 11:49 am

Apple and Steve Jobs target should be the one that they forecasted in 2007. that was the only time that they talked about a target. at that time it was 10m phone or 1% of the market at that time.
then if in 2008 the cellphone market grove it does not change apple target.
all those 12m targets have been stated by analysts and have later become the expectation. but that is incorrect.
if you analysts and journalists want to steer the pot, you are free of doing it. I know you also need to put some food on the table, but that does not mean that what you guys write is correct.

Posted By Alex NY NY : September 22, 2008 11:41 am

So I guess share price will be heading south again after earnings. WS was expecting 12 million iPhones this year and it probably will miss by a million or so. Lousy economy killed Apple. The stock is already in the toilet, now it’s just waiting to be flushed. RIM will sell a couple of million BlackBerrys and it’s stock will shoot up. Apple has become a fine company, but a poor investment.

Posted By iphonerulez, Jamaica, New York : September 22, 2008 11:02 am

I think that Apple is doing great. My brother is trying to buy the iPhone, but all NY stores have no iPhone. The device is sold out. I believe that its sells will continue to grow.

Posted By John Cohn, Florida, www.ecompetitors.com : September 22, 2008 10:33 am

iPhones aren’t perfect. Apple must work on the improvement of this device. I awn two iPhones and I’m slightly disappointed with them.

Posted By Shandy Paras, New York, NY, www.ecompetitors.com : September 22, 2008 10:16 am

“Apple has repeatedly expressed confidence that it would sell at least 10 million iPhones in calendar 2008.”

WRONG. Apple has repeatedly stated that they expected to sell at least 10 million iPhones BEFORE THE END of 2008. Which would include 2007 sales (1st gen model) as well.

Inaccurate reporting like this contributes to the stock’s volatility.

ex ped: Sorry, but you are wrong, Chris. This question has been repeated asked and answered. See, for example, here.

Posted By Chris, Salt Lake City, Utah : September 22, 2008 10:16 am

Apple sold more iPhones that they actually was planning to sell… Good for them

Posted By Julia, www.ecompetitors.com : September 22, 2008 10:11 am
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Philip Elmer-DeWittSilicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
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