Market free fall: How Apple fared
Apple was the outlier Monday. On a day in which the Dow lost nearly 370 points (having plunged 800 points in midday trading), Apple’s shares actually ended up in positive territory, closing at $98.14, up 1.1%.
But to see that as good news you would have to ignore the fact that at one point Monday Apple was trading for $87.24 a share — off nearly 60% from its December 2007 high of $202.96.
Apple closed down nearly 9 points (9.5%) Tuesday, while the Dow fell more than 508 points (5.11%).
To get a feel for how Apple is really faring, you can compare its performance with what CNBC’s Jim Cramer calls the four horsemen of technology: Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM), Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN).
As it turns out, the biggest loser over the past two weeks has been RIM, down 38.5% over the past 10 trading days — and off nearly 65% from its 12-month high.
The best performer of the four: Amazon, off only 9% for the fortnight, and within 40% of its 12-month high.
But Amazon’s price-to-earnings ratio is a dizzying 47, while Apple is now hovering around 20. That’s still above the market average, as Henry Blodget points out in Silicon Alley Insider, “but low for a stock with this wide and passionate a following and a still-solid growth story.”
Here’s a snapshot of the past two weeks of trading, taken before the markets opened on Tuesday:
Below: live fever charts for all four stocks.
Why is Amazon a “Tech” stock? Seems to me it is a retail/distribution stock. Are we still living in the late dot-com era?
ex ped: For starters, two words: S3, EC2.
The reason that Google can have prices so much higher is because they have fewer stocks at a higher price. GE, a blue chip, has 10.5 billion shares where as Google only has 314.45 million, that’s a HUGE difference. I don’t think that Google’s price is ridiculous at all. Look at Berkshire Hathaway, they’re price is $124,000 per share and you’re not complaining about that, they only offer 1.55 million shares so again its price vs. quantity.
These tech stocks are still way overpriced. No way Google or Amazon stock should be more than $20-25 per share. Most stocks right now should be in that range except for blue chips. Oh wait, the blue chips are in this range too. Google had a 52 week high of $747, which is insane.
You should try netting cash out, and then do a P/E. Then you’ll see what value is placed on operations.
2nd thing to think about, does any of the four besides Apple, have deferred earnings, of the magnitude that Apple has? Right now, because of the iPhone’s deferred earnings, Apple is only adding a few pennies to its eps, when in fact, once the deferred earnings are fully realized, one would see that they could add about $0.85eps if they sell 10M iPhones a year.
10M iPhones x $500 x 0.15 net margin = $750M
$750M / 886M shs = 85 cents
Really, using P/E ratios, and not factoring in deferred revs, makes any comparison apples-to-oranges. Apple is very cheap right now.
Why don’t you add debt figures to the spreadsheet. Given the *credit* crisis, it certainly seems relevant to see which companies need credit.
ex ped: Done. Interesting how much debt Amazon is carrying, especially compared with Apple and Google.
For longtimers AAPL is treated as the Blue Chip of the next era. Loans free (how touching these days), a powerhouse of addicting products Steve’s Inc faces the Bubble Explosion of the early 00’s but from a position of mere antithesis. Back then the stock was hammered ’cause of a “see you dead soon” feeling. Now the stock is juiced out from the around paniced instututional shareholders who keep…kept, FED knows 70% of the stock. Curious to see the current position of Fidelity for example…
Wall street has always been in a love-hate relationship with Steve’s Inc. The same people who prayed for our soul in the late 90’s became -for no reason but the greed of the momentous- our religious followers.
Well, nobody cares of their long term position in Wall Street as long as they improve their cash inflows these days. So selling out at 100 – 200 % 52 week profit wont hurt them. From an investment point of view this is a revelations of idiot-cracy. AAPL, if a Blue Chip of the new era should have been a safe heaven with slim daily volumes and steady price. -25% would be a good sign these days when you always deals with Wallstreet defects (the chief bankers that is….).
Bottom line. Had I had cash, I would accumulate AAPL in the same way I do with iTuned mp3s (aac’s sorry Steve)
I bet all my 2000 shares in Apple that I bought back in 1996 that Apple has a long way to go to become an entertainment provider …..MS monopoly. We all await for the iScreen; a 32, 40 ,50 screen with OS Y inclusive that will come with a keyboard a mouse and an iRemote. Other cool stuff will be right ahead; apart from the S&M hopes of “many” regarding Steves health. Shame on them to play cancer for money.
So… a few years from now AAPL may be a terra stock, aka 1 Terra dollar stock. The “cloud society” has a producer and its leader these days bites an apple.
Why not add MSFT, too? Maybe not one of the 4 horsemen, but certainly a major player in the tech stampede (sorry if that metaphor got out of control :-)
One thing not mentioned is Apple has $22B+ in cash (over 25% of market cap) and no debt. If you net the cash, the P/E and other metrics look even better.
ex ped: Good idea. Cash added into chart for all four stocks. Thanks.
Blodget? give me a break. And Cramer? What’s going on here? Your credibility is truly in question.
ex ped: This seems to be the season for guilt by association. Maybe I should start quoting Bill Ayers and Charles Keating.
Blodget blowz.
I’m surprised you’d cheapen yourself…
In case you haven’t noticed, Blodget is a CROOK. And an IDIOT. Quoting him in any piece destroys any credibility.
I can’t believe you still mention the liar Henry B. Why lower the quality of your commentary with a reference to that discredited, pathetic man.
ex ped: In case you haven’t noticed, Silicon Alley Insider has turned into quite a useful site. Blodget has paid for his sins. Perhaps it’s time for everybody else to get over it.
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not sure what the point is. they are all down as should be – few blimps here and there; what is the point budd? – i like the excel screenshot;