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December 2, 2008, 5:08 pm

iPhone grabs 30% of U.S. smartphone market

leaning iphone 3g (clean)Apple’s iPhone is the star in a series of charts published Tuesday by Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf.

The first is a quarter-by-quarter snapshot of the worldwide smartphone market that shows a sharp uptick in Apple’s (AAPL) share set against the downward drift of its major competitors — Nokia’s (NOK) Symbian, RIM’s (RIMM) BlackBerry and Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows Mobile.

Wolf's smartphone chart 1

The second chart shows the same data without Symbian — which lets you zero in on the competition between the iPhone, BlackBerry and Windows Mobile. In this chart, the rise in Apple’s market share after the July release of the iPhone 3G looks positively meteoric.

Wolf smartphone chart 2

The third chart shows the battle for the U.S. smartphone market, which is shaping up as a two-way race with the iPhone closing in on BlackBerry and Palm (PALM) and Microsoft Windows falling ever further behind. Note that Apple more than tripled its market share in the third quarter to grab 30% of the domestic smartphone business, while RIM lost considerable momentum and most of its lead. According to Wolf, the seven million iPhones Apple shipped in the September quarter accounted for all the growth in smartphone shipments that quarter — and then some. See AppleInsider here.

Wolf smartphone chart 3

I see so many discussion about Mac and WM, but remember sum them all would be still less than Symibian which is the Giant Nokia, you guys are talking about a mobile industry which is a global wide industry, US is only part of the big picture.

Posted By ken, vancouver, Canada : December 4, 2008 12:57 pm

LOL, the apple-bummers are at it again.

Just a comment from below I found ammusing:
“more than 70% of the highly trained and technical people I know in the IT industry carry Macs” (I’ll leave you to your own thoughts on this one :) )

Posted By UK : December 4, 2008 4:51 am

NuShrike hit the nail on the head.

The multimedia shortcomings of WinMo finally did it for me. There wasn’t enough space or quality apps to listen to music or watch videos. Horrible quality, poor execution on MS’s part.

Don’t get me wrong, I loved all the available apps and kitchens available for WinMo. But after going from v5 to v6, and then hearing v7 is shelved or delayed for how long? Forget that.

Now I can watch videos, listen to music, browse at a reasonable speed all from one device with more than 4G out of the box. It’s a well finished product and O/S w/o all the kernel krap from MS.

Posted By PDubs, Austin, TX : December 3, 2008 7:05 pm

“MAC OS X is built on a modern microkernel and was built new from the ground up. WIN OS is still patching and building a UI on-top of the old WIN NT platform. Yes, it’s still there after all these years.”

So how come Mac OSX still uses a 32-bit kernel and tell you that the system is a 64bit system. Some of it may be, but not from the ground up. Vista on the other hand is a true 64 from the ground up. Works great for me and I also would like to know what technology is so much more advanced on the Mac than Windows? Go ahead.

Posted By Eric, Cincinnati OH : December 3, 2008 4:01 pm

Have the phone and love it…biggest let down is Itunes. I can’t stand using it. It’s use feels like an afterthought.

Posted By JACK, Pa : December 3, 2008 3:44 pm

2012, Bill Gates will be back full time at MS to clean up the mess.

Posted By Nostradamus : December 3, 2008 3:34 pm

The problem with Windows Mobile is not its openness nor flexibility. The problem is it caters to carriers over customers and allows such fragmentation that licensees can ship devices with huge flaws (as documented at http://www.htcclassaction.org/) while MS is actually powerless to do anything about it.

Windows Mobile is actually hamstrung by what their licensees will ship, preventing innovation because of the possibility of offending licensees until the iPhone changed the entire scene.

Apple delivered a high-quality, almost open-standards, innovative, consistent, customer-oriented experience without cryptic/proprietary interfaces crippling 3rd-party developers.

Right now, Windows Mobile is stuck with a Windows 98-style OS design and interface that actually encourages poor multimedia performance. It will not come out of that hole until a stage-changing major OS revamp delivers.

Posted By NuShrike, Los Angeles, CA : December 3, 2008 3:15 pm

maddawg - I suggest you get a new argument, really. Are you seriously suggesting that WIN OS is technically superior to the MAC OS? Wow, you need to go back and do a little more studying. Just because you know your way around the WIN OS doesn’t make it a superior technology. In fact you know this because you’ve likely been forced to know it to make it work. MAC OS X is built on a modern microkernel and was built new from the ground up. WIN OS is still patching and building a UI on-top of the old WIN NT platform. Yes, it’s still there after all these years.

Insulting Mac users is about as abusive as it is fruitless. Assuming someone who chooses a Mac over a PC does so because they’re stupid only highlights your ignorance. I’ve been in the IT industry in various capacities since 1990 and I’ve had Mac’s all that time. Trust me when I say I know the difference. In point of fact, more than 70% of the highly trained and technical people I know in the IT industry carry Macs … and that’s by informed choice.

Get a new argument, the old one is as tired and retreaded as the OS you defend.

Posted By James, Los Angeles CA : December 3, 2008 2:02 pm

Roy G - could it be that Steve holds on to his ideas a bit tighter than you would like because of his history with Bill? Whether or not you believe Bill actually did steal any ideas or concepts from Steve there is at least enough leftover lack of trust that Steve won’t share anything. My wife has an iPhone and I have a blackberry (work issued). I’d take the iPhone in an instant over the blackberry. But at home we have both a Mac and a PC. They have different advantages. I’ve long been a fan of Macs but have always felt Steve’s tight control over everything ultimately limits the potential.

Posted By I. Fletcher Portland OR : December 3, 2008 12:55 pm

Roy -

Clever writing and plausible (though highly improbable) storylines. But — you’ve gotta move on, man. Bill Gates is distancing himself from Microsoft and is focusing on philantropy instead. Microsoft is now run by Steve Ballmer, and we’ve seen how some of those decisions have played out over the last 8 years. Steve Jobs, meanwhile, will work hard to avoid the mistakes made 20+ years ago.

I wouldn’t play a time machine guru on this blog, lest you want to be riduculed.

Posted By Roman, Cambridge, MA : December 3, 2008 12:49 pm

The I-Phone had a significant spike with the release of the cheaper iPhone early this year. I’d like to see the data run again after Blackberry’s recent release of it’s iPhone type phone. New release will always show a spike for manufacturers since people always like to jump on something new.

Posted By chuckie, Boston, MA : December 3, 2008 12:42 pm

Roy G. Biv is the former Captain Mac (1985) who morphed into Colonel Next (1992) and has reemerged as Roy G. Biv, living in past, present, and future simultaneously.

The problem for Apple comes down to this. Steve, arguably the greatest innovative technology mind of our time, is possessive in character. Gates has been more generous in the sense of allowing other hardware vendors to use his OS. You might think Gates shrewd, devious, and monopolistic, but at least he makes his OSs open to various hardware vendors, instead of just one, like Apple. Steve was an orphan. He fiercely holds onto what he has because he is afraid of losing it. Bill was raised in a more developed environment, and has a different, more open view.
And by the way, life tends to repeat. And that is why WinMob is so big in 2012. Just like the Pc with multiple hardware vendors. And yet funny thing, in the present we can change the future history. That’s right Steve can become non-possessive and generous, and Apple can have 95% marketshare in Smartphones. It is my fondest dream.

Posted By Roy G. Biv Lafayette, CA : December 3, 2008 9:25 am

One comment andone question:

Your lead-in describes the “downward drift of [Apple's] major competitors”, which I find somewhat slanted since BB appears level if a little chaotic.

How is this data calculated? If it is based only on quarterly sales, I would say it is a little misleading. Title should then say “iPhone grabs 30% of U.S. smartphone sales.” Phones have a significant life, so a more realistic view of the market would be devices in use, or sum of the previous 4-8 quarters sales.

iPhone is a nice, creative device. I don’t think it accounts for 30% of the smartphones in use, though.

Posted By JAy., Houston, TX : December 3, 2008 9:04 am

Interesting data for the I-phone. No one I know owns an I-phone. The giant “white collar” US corporation I am employed with, only issues Blackberry devices to the workforce. Let’s see if Apple can hold on in the next 5 years as the competition heats up.

Posted By Kris, Eagan MN : December 3, 2008 8:28 am

lmao @ all the noobs attempting to discuss apple as if they actually know anytyhing about technology.

(just stick to your shiney little boxes with simpleton pictures, that’s why they built the macs for you iTard types)

none of the phone makers will go out of business attempting to copy the iphone…..it just wont happen. as with all apple products, the iphone is a niche. (it’s appealed to more than their usual niches, but a niche at best)

and as far as apple buying MS….LMFAO really hard at that one….

(hold on….my stomach still hurts and i can’t stop laughing yet!!!)

WHEW…that was funny but i finally was able to stop busting out in tears of laughter….i never thought it would end.

one note though…there are ALOT more iTard technologically challenged people out there than i even thought.
(and i put the count at 99.99% of the population)

vista RULZ any OS out there….

now YES, you must have at least 10% of your brain cells firing to use the product, but that’s what tech takes…a little brain power.

you vista bashing noobs continue to cry like babies that can’t find your pacifiers.

i have a suggestion….OPEN A BOOK AND LEARN SOMETHING ABOUT THE TECHNOLOGY OFFERED.

i know it wont happen but somebody has to make the suggestion….it really only takes slightly more than a simpleton mind to understand and use vista….

i’ve been using it since day 1 and it still continues to rape every other OS out there.
(of course, i know how to configure and delve into the nuts and bolts of it so i guess that’s what makes the difference between a real computer guru and the tyipcal iTard)

keep up the good work PED….i just love how you get the iTards wound up with every story you publish….they never got it 20+ years ago when you started reporting on apple and they’ve only gotten dumber since……

(no wonder they elected an inexperienced, talk, talk, talk, person for ‘change’ that is bringing the ’same old crap’ into washington)

Posted By maddawg, wash. DC. : December 3, 2008 6:57 am

” the WinMob-IPhone war, and has the same result. ”

Not likely. Unless consumers have come to enjoy virus ridden bloatware clogged spam clogged WinMob devices.

Posted By jh mesa AZ : December 3, 2008 2:30 am

Posted By Neal in Minneapolis : December 2, 2008 8:04 pm
Just got back from 2012. Sarah Palin is tending bar in Juneau. Saving up for an iPhone.

LOL. Happen to see any windlows users? I bet they’re still stuck running XP after finding out Windows 7 suck as bad as Vista. BWAHHAH!

Posted By Apple IT, LV NV : December 3, 2008 2:02 am

@ROYGBIV

Are you serious? Win Mobile? By 2009, MSFT will abandon that mess, and start something even worse most likely, but derivative of iPhone. ZunePhone!

Meanwhile, developers are loving iPhone SDK, and Mac applications are a simple next step for them and for the App store…

BTW, WIndows was never ‘open’–it’s always been controlled totally by MSFT and you have exactly ONE vendor–MSFT.

Windoze zealots are freaking out more and more all the time, it’s really getting interesting watching them twist in the wind while their little fiefdom comes crashing down all around them. And it’s just 2008, not 2012…

Posted By Brian : December 3, 2008 1:24 am

Well I had to pay a visit to 2012 myself to see what the truth is, and the rumor going on is Apple is thinking of buying up Microsoft, though I think its just a stupid goofy rumor. Who cares Apple had more money in the bank than MS since 2008? And who cares they bought Sony in 2011?

Posted By Veggiedude, SF, CA : December 2, 2008 10:21 pm

Just got back from 2012. Sarah Palin is tending bar in Juneau. Saving up for an iPhone.

Posted By Neal in Minneapolis : December 2, 2008 8:04 pm

It would be nice if the author of this article would cite the source of this data that Charles Wolf is quoting.

There are a few reputable research firms and then there are others that rely solely on retail sales data.

Posted By Todd, Austin TX : December 2, 2008 8:01 pm

Is this really a battle? MSFT is a commodity at this point, heavily entrenched in the enterprise desktop market (yes, they have presence in the home market, but the need for heavy-duty desktop home computing is slowly eroding).

The real battle is Apple and Google. The bleeding-edge of the handheld space at this point removes nearly 80% of your daily needs from a normal desktop machine.

And here’s a word from 2012. Google wins on the large front. Android was an open platform from the beginning, and developers (both SMB and enterprise) find it much more accessible and easier to develop on.

Just a word to the wise. Apple, you’ve got a great thing going. Open your SDK to the non-Mac world, and you’ll guarantee your place against Google.

Posted By Steve, Denver CO : December 2, 2008 7:39 pm

Hi Roy,
Very good speculative writing. I enjoyed it too. It shows that you know Apple/Microcrap history.

Apple haters have presented your argument for the decline of Apple an abundant number of times. Of course, you give no other reason why it might happen again; Your open and closed argument is no longer relevant; past history is no longer applicable to the reality of the times because developers are flocking to the iPhone in contrast to the 90’s when they migrated to MS.

I would like to see more such creative writing in addition to the regular dry replies.

Posted By John Dingler Berkeley CA : December 2, 2008 7:22 pm

Next time please use consistent symbols across all graphs. That makes reading graphs so much easier.

Posted By Igloobone, NJ : December 2, 2008 7:19 pm

Roy G is only right if the Open Device Initiative is enforced by the FCC. If carriers continue to lock devices down and restrict, then the advantage of winMob is defunct. Microsoft has to lobby against the privatization of public telecom to make that happen, and this goes against its own monopoly practices. So Apple DOES actually have an in, and so does Nokia.

Posted By Joseph - Seattle, WA : December 2, 2008 6:59 pm

I just got back from 1988, and whoa dude the Sony Discman is AWESOME. Sony is going to rule the portable music player market for a long time.

Posted By Biff Carlson, Minnespanka, MN : December 2, 2008 6:55 pm
Posted By Roy H. Lafayette CA : December 2, 2008 6:53 pm

Roy G…Who won the Super Bowl/World Series? Got Stock tips?

Posted By Need Some $$$ : December 2, 2008 6:45 pm

Hello? What about Android?

You left out the biggest “threat” to Apple/iPhone. Android is the future of the mobile market.

Posted By SteveV, Sacramento CA : December 2, 2008 6:38 pm

If Roy from Lafeyette thinks Windows is “open”, then he’s truly drunk deeply from Bill G’s koolaid.

Posted By Ken C, Gardiner, Maine : December 2, 2008 6:34 pm

please go “back” to 2012. if that’s the future, i hope i don’t live that long.

Posted By Up N. Adam New York, NY : December 2, 2008 6:16 pm

@Roy G. Biv - That’s very funny! No way in h*ll will WindowsMobile achieve this goal… crap is crap… and the overwhelming majority of people have no desire to be tied to MS on their phone, nor any need to… so many others do it soooooo much better. (You did mean Windows Dumbphone OS, right?)

Posted By FreeRange, Denver, CO : December 2, 2008 6:11 pm

Unfortunately Roy is misinformed though he has tried to be quite funny. Nokia doesn’t, nor will they ever use Windows Mobile and his statement that RIM uses Windows Mobile in Blackberrys is completely incorrect as well. If Windows Mobile was so great then why did RIM use their own OS to create the Storm.

Posted By John Smith, San Diego, CA : December 2, 2008 5:58 pm

Most people still don’t get it, it is all about apps! In 2012, there will no no PC’s and no browsers, only IPhones which you will dock to a keyboard and monitor when needed. Microsoft missed the boat while trying to get Vista (the last late great PC OS) out the door.

Posted By Jerry Hoadley, Escondido CA : December 2, 2008 5:57 pm

What a stupid “2012″ comment. Gimme a break.

Posted By Jon O, Algonquin, IL : December 2, 2008 5:51 pm

Spoken like a true AAPL short-seller. My version of 2012 has half these companies gone broke trying to copy the iPhone.

Posted By Neal in Minneapolis : December 2, 2008 5:48 pm

It is not an attractive situation for developers having 20 hardware platforms to write for. 1 is much easier.

I never left 2008.

Posted By Ron, Lombard IL : December 2, 2008 5:46 pm

I am just back from 2012 where Windows Mobile has 52% market share including Blackberry (which runs the OS on 3/4 of its Smartphones) Samsung, Panasonic and 10 others also have major presence with the Microsoft Smartphone OS. Apple has 36% (after peaking at 55% in 2009) and is currently dropping at rate of 8% a year. The PC-Mac war of 20 years ago morphed into the WinMob-IPhone war, and has the same result. Who would have believed it in 2008 when WinMob was pathetic. Still when you have 20 vendors making WinMob systens (including Blackberry and Nokia) vs. 1 for Apple that’s what happens. (Same as PC-Mac in 1985) . Bill Gates and co. kept things open, and everyone once again rushed in. Now there is talk that Steve may be fired again (though he will be back in 10 years to create the IGod). Now for me its on to 2015!

Posted By Roy G. Biv Lafayette, CA : December 2, 2008 5:19 pm
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Philip Elmer-DeWittSilicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
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