What’s Macworld without its “living legend”?
If it was Steve Jobs’ intention to take the wind out of Macworld’s sails, he’s done a pretty good job.
“Expectations are low,” wrote Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster in a note to clients early Tuesday, one week before the first Macworld Expo keynote since 1997 that won’t be delivered by Apple’s charismatic CEO. “No significant new products are expected.”
“Fairly modest” is how Kaufmann Bros.’ Shaw Wu described investor expectations for the Expo, which runs from Jan. 5 – 9 in San Francisco and which Apple (AAPL) has already announced will be its last. “Frankly, we would be a little surprised if there is a major announcement, as we believe it would make better sense for Steve Jobs to do so himself at an AAPL event.”
Behind Steve Jobs’ Macworld exit
Both Wu and Munster are looking for Jobs’ keynote stand-in — senior vice-president Phil Schiller — to introduce updated iMacs and redesigned Mac minis — hardly surprises given that both machines are overdue for a refresh.
Munster has not given up on the “new form factor iPhone” — a.k.a. iPhone nano — that he once thought would be announced at the January event. Now he doesn’t expect it to arrive before the end of Apple’s second fiscal quarter, which closes in March.
And he is sticking with his famous prediction — the most optimistic of any mainstream analyst — that Apple will sell 45 million iPhones in calendar 2009. But he reminds clients that that figure is predicated on his belief that Apple will enlarge its iPhone offerings, vastly expand its retail outlets and significantly lower its prices. So far it’s only done one of the three.
Wal-Mart to sell iPhone starting Sunday
Shaw Wu also sees “strong indications” of a lower-cost iPhone and other “larger form factor touchscreen devices” — a.k.a. iPod tablet — later in the year. His sources hint that Apple may introduce a new “consumer device” next week — possibly a jazzed up Apple TV or a superconnected Time Capsule — a.k.a. home server — that would let you grab your files or do backups from anywhere on the Internet.
And Wu hasn’t ruled out the possibility that Phil Schiller will surprise everyone next week with a breakthrough product that nobody is expecting, if only to send the message that Apple is a “much broader and deeper company than one person, even if he/she is a living legend.”
For our part, we haven’t given up on the possibility that Steve Jobs will make a surprise cameo appearance during Schiller’s keynote, if only to show that he’s still kicking — Gizmodo’s latest rumor to the contrary — and still very much in charge.
Apple is a dying company! Microsoft will soon totally wipe them out of existence!
ZUNES ALL AROUND!
We’ve been joking that it would be better theatre to string up Apple boy Justin Long as a puppet and have Phil be off to one side doing the speaking and string pulling.
Apple needs to stop worrying about the hype and just continue to make awesome products that work. Wall street owns most of the stock, and we all see what they did to an awesome stock when the sheet hit the fan… they sold it because it was the only winner on their books, and drove the stock price down.
At present levels apple should announce a stock split to turn it’s investor base to private from institutional.
Future is developers and not as much marketing.
Look at iPhone.
Apple has three legs(name them:-). MacWorld has one.
Apple Developer Conference is all Apple needs. Add to
that apple has full control over the event.
I would guess that Steve and Phil are about to blow the hinges off the media, by pulling that old “one last thing” trick out of their hats.
I bet Phil does the whole song and dance leading to reduced expectations from the crowd, then at the very end on walks Steve looking like a million bucks (+20 lbs) and pulls the iPod tablet out of his pocket and says “it’s available everywhere this afternoon” That will put Phil in the drivers seat and set the hypers on their collective heels.
OK, a guy can dream can’t he?
$15 bucks a share? – not even if Steve died on stage.
Remember Apple re-invented itself as a lifestyle company many years ago. It’s not a tech company any more and that’s why it’s doing so well. That’s smart because it lets them use less-than-latest tech to build its products, which in turn increases margins. Steve also figured out, over 25 years ago, that it’s the interface or “use model” that makes or breaks a product (Nintendo figured out the same thing but only recently; witness the enduring popularity of the Wii).
Apple’s only mistake is allowing the “cult of Steve” to continue as Apple’s main PR engine for as long as it has. To really do well they need to break their dependancy on their #1 (and only significant) pitch man.
Maybe this is the beginning of just that. Then again, they tried going “Steve-less” before and it did not go well for them. Let’s hope they learned a lesson on how to do it this time!
I normally don’t comment but whoever said that Apple might release a netbook, it has already been confirmed and stated by Steve Jobs that he won’t step that low in sacrificing “quality” of his products.
Maybe it is time for Steve to go, while the company is in good shape.
The stock price is already depressed. If it falls a little more now, it will rebound. The billions in the bank, strong product line, and all those patents on the iPhone will assure that.
Steve, enjoy a few years (hopefully) of retirement. Your legacy is secure. You don’t need the agravation. And neither do the Apple share holders.
Nick, I listed the REASONS for my guesses. I also stated clearly that they were just guesses.
Where’s YOUR reasoned analysis that leads you to predict Apple at $15 a share?
You shot your mouth off, now put up or shut up.
Sacto Joe, your wild guessing makes you the idiot.
Nick, you’re an idiot. You obviously don’t know anything at ALL about this stock!
All I want is for Christmas in April is a 32GB iPhone.
Macworld is a waste of time, I’ve been to a few – fun at first, but after – boring. Macworld is good if you have an all access pass. I give Macworld 2-4 years and they will close shop permanently from lack of paying visitors, lack of media attention, and businesses not wanting to be bothered with the expense and set-up.
Apple is so screwed it isn’t funny. Back to $15 or so we go, where we should be. Crash imminent.
I think Steve Jobs has taken himself out of the Master of Ceremonies business. I think it was fun for him up until the media used his “Twiggy” look to scare the heck out of everyone, hack the price of Apple stock – and sell media.
It’s not fun any more for him, so why should he bother? I don’t expect he’ll make an appearance at MacWorld or for the forseeable future.
But that doesn’t mean Apple might not have a new product release up its sleeve for January. Consider this possibility: If they did bring out a new larger iPod Touch “netbook” priced at $5-600, they’d be pretty much be forced to couple that with a drastic drop in price for both small Touch’s and iPhones. IMHO, that would explain the timing of the WalMart iPhone deal.
And it would end MacWorld with a bang! Even without Steve Jobs as MC.
I should caution that this is just a wild guess on my part. I have absolutely no contacts at Apple any more.
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Silicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
What is it without living legend?
Actual non-progagandic reviews and accurate comparisons. The ability to actually judge utility and compibility.
Hell, things might actually be better because of it!!