Mac news from outside the reality distortion field
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January 13, 2009, 10:00 am

Tracking the iPhone’s jagged growth

Hank's NetApp graph

The rise of the iPhone, like the course of true love, never did run smooth.

Quarterly sales last year varied widely, from a low of 720,000 in June to a high of 6,890,000 in September following the release of the iPhone 3G.

But that’s nothing compared with the weird patterns that emerge from data collected by Net Applications, a Web metrics firm that tracks hits to its clients’ websites on a daily basis — a total of 160 million visitors per month.

The chart above (full size below the fold), created by Hank Vaccaro of Standard Analytics and posted last week on The Mac Observer’s Apple Finance Board, displays Net Applications’ iPhone data for the device’s first 18 months on the market. The first part of the chart is drawn from weekly data; the last part includes daily variations.

With the caveat that this graph represents how frequently iPhone owners are using the Web, not iPhone sales or market share, it still tells us quite a bit about the iPhone’s growth over the past year and a half.

First, by tracking the seven-day moving average (the red line in Vaccaro’s graph), we can see four clear spikes:

  1. The initial release in June-July 2007
  2. Holiday sales in Dec. 2007
  3. The release of the iPhone 3G in July 2008
  4. Holiday sales in Dec. 2008

We won’t know how strong sales were in December until Apple (AAPL) releases its quarterly earnings next week (Jan. 21 at 5 p.m. EST), but based on the magnitude of that last bump, they shouldn’t be too shabby. (Citibank’s Richard Gardner on Tuesday cut his 12-month price target for Apple shares from $153 to $132 based in part on what he called “soft 4CQ08 iPhone shipments,” but didn’t say where he got his data.)

And what about the strange saw-tooth pattern in the last part of the chart? That’s created by the daily variations in Web hits. On weekdays, the Internet tends to be dominated by office computers — mostly PCs running Windows. But on weekends, home users take over, and that includes a higher percentage of Macs, iPhones and other non-Windows devices. The variation is striking — as much as 40% in a single day.

But it all smooths out in the long run, as represented in Vaccaro’s chart by a thick black line, and the trend — so far — is an exponential rise.

See also:

Below the fold: Vaccaro’s chart, full size:

Hank's NetApp graph

All this may be true world wide but I work for supporting the iphone and I can tell you the big surge of calls that was supposed to happen after Christmas didn’t.

Posted By Joe, Austin, TX : January 16, 2009 11:54 am

On the ’shabby’ twist:

I would have written “…they couldn’t be too shabby” or “..shouldn’t be too shabby.” This would allow the sentence to speculate on the sales based upon the directions set in the past. As it is, the sentence is turning upon itself.

Posted By Bill, New York, New York : January 15, 2009 1:16 pm

Jim…You’re a grammar geek. Get a life!

Posted By Jesus H. Christ : January 15, 2009 12:59 pm

@Dusty: Read what PED is trying to say again.

Posted By Jim, Stuttgart, Germany : January 14, 2009 3:03 pm

I was there at the soho store with my platinum card in hand buying up the limit (2) in July of 2007. Used them til the G3 release and then decided – why upgrade? I don’t use half the features it has with G2! Truth is that AT&T isn’t the greatest partner for service provision that they could have picked. Smarter move would have been a CDMA/GSM version for the US market and a GSM only version for the rest of the world. That way customers would have coverage regardless of AT&T’s spotty network and futile attempts to build outside of major metro markets. There are millions of us who live and work outside the pathetic AT&T footprint and for us – Verizon is the only logical US alternative. And they have better service, cost a little more, and work a whole lot better, too! I know GSM is the superior tech. But until CDMA is converted in the US – the CDMA network that Verizon offers is still far better and no one at Apple seems to be able to deal with that fact. I guess Cupertino and the entire 280/101 strip from SF to Los Gatos to San Jose is covered well enough to convince Apple Execs that AT&T would work. Pity, but it didn’t do so for the rest of the nation. Anyone looking for two pristine iPhones should check my ad for them on ebay. I just want a phone that WORKS and sadly, that’s let iPhone out of the running for much of the US.

Posted By Mark / Scottsdale AZ : January 13, 2009 9:14 pm

@Jim: Actually, it was more correct in the first place. The verb of the coordinate first clause that maps to the “they” is in the past tense, “sales were”. If you want to fix it, you end up with the convoluted “they won’t have been too shabby.”

Why pick on that and ignore: “But on weekends, home users take over, and that include a higher percentage of Macs…”?
“That” as a singular cannot be the subject of “include” but rather “includes”. The antecedent of “that” is “home users”, so we have to infer a word like “group” for them to match. One way to correct it would be: “But on weekends, home users take over, and that group includes a higher percentage of Macs…”

Posted By Dusty, Milwaukee, WI : January 13, 2009 8:44 pm

Aren’t the spikes the times when Microsoft’s managers are away and their workers don’t have to fake it?

Posted By Jose, Los Angeles, CA : January 13, 2009 4:47 pm

Well done! Including the links you added, one can put together a much more reliable picture than sketchy supply and build checks turned out recently which indicate nothing more than the usual stabilizing of inventory seen in previous years apple Q01 checks: There was never a point that there were less than 10 million iphones available to be sold in the Holiday quarter, for example. I’m continually surpised at how many emails I recieve from new iphones – people who had never sent me emails from the device before Christmas 2008.

Posted By Buffeted, Berlin, Germany : January 13, 2009 12:33 pm

Change:
>>We won’t know how strong sales were in December until Apple (AAPL) releases its quarterly earnings next week (Jan. 21 at 5 p.m. EST), but based on the magnitude of that last bump, they weren’t too shabby.<<

to:

they won’t be too shabby
or
they wouldn’t be too shabby
or
they shouldn’t be too shabby

You choose, but don’t leave it like it is.

Posted By Jim, Stuttgart, Germany : January 13, 2009 12:21 pm

Does Net Applications distinguish between iPhone hits and iPod Touch hits?

ex ped: yes, it reports touch separately.

Posted By Brian, Hayward, CA : January 13, 2009 11:55 am
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Philip Elmer-DeWittSilicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
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