Mac news from outside the reality distortion field
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June 11, 2009, 8:49 am

Infographic: New iPhone vs. Palm Pre vs. Android G1

NextGenPhones_Final4How do the new smartphones stack up in terms of features, sticker price and total cost?

BillShrink, a website that offers free personalized analysis of cellphone, credit card and gas costs, has lined the phones up in an easy-to-read chart (click image to enlarge). It compares …

  • Apple’s (AAPL) new iPhone 3G S, which goes on sale next Friday
  • Palm (PALM) Pre, which went on sale last Saturday
  • HTC’s G1, the first cellphone running on Google’s (GOOG) Android platform

BillShrink’s bottom line properly draws attention to the total cost of ownership over the life of a 2 year contract.

It shows the iPhone on AT&T (T) — at $3,799 for unlimited voice and messaging — to be most expensive by far: 20% more than the G1 on T-Mobile (DT) and 46% more than the Pre on Sprint (S).

[NOTE: An earlier version of the chart did not include the cost of the iPhone and Pre in their totals.]

But the chart also makes it clear that in several respects you get what you pay for. For example, the new (entry-level) iPhone comes with twice the Pre’s memory capacity and 16 times the G1’s (although the G1’s memory can be expanded to at least 16GB).

And the chart actually underplays the vast advantage the Apple’s U.S. App Store (with nearly 50,000 programs) has over Android’s Marketplace (nearly 5,000) Palm’s App Catalog (18).

As for the total cost of ownership, your mileage may vary. If you don’t need unlimited voice and text messaging, the iPhone and the Pre can each be had for $69 per month, for a total cost of $1,878.76 over two years (taxes not included).

F0r more smartphone comparison tools, check out BillShrink.com.

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June 1, 2009, 8:10 am

Google’s Android falling behind the iPhone

iphone-magicAfter matching the iPhone nearly hit for hit in its first five months on the market, Google’s (GOOG) Android has fallen behind the pace set by Apple’s (AAPL) smartphone in terms of its presence on the Web, according to a report issued Monday.

“Android and the iPhone’s browsing usage share upon launch were nearly identical for the first few months,” the Web metrix firm Net Applications reports. “However, May numbers show that the Android mobile platform has fallen off the pace the iPhone set upon its launch.” (link)

Stacking the iPhone’s first six months on the market with Android’s, the numbers look like this:

iPhone vs. Android NetApp

The acceleration in the iPhone’s Month 6 (January 2007) occurred well before the device really took off with the launch of the iPhone 3G last summer. The first Android phone — the T-Mobile (DT) G1 — launched last October and had a strong Month 4, catching up to and even passing the iPhone’s Month 4. But by Month 6 it had fallen badly behind.

Moreover, the iPhone’s expanding Web presence shows no signs of slowing down. Its Internet share grew another 9.09% in May to reach 0.6% penetration, according to preliminary data released early Monday. Android’s share has yet to break 0.08%.

“This,” notes Net Applications, “may signal difficulty in moving beyond early adopters.”

It may also signal difficulty for Palm (PALM), which is set to release its answer to the iPhone — the Palm Pre — later this week through Sprint (S). A strong launch is almost guaranteed, given the buzz that has surrounded the device since it was unveiled at the Consumer Electronics Show last January and voted Best in Show.

But as Google and T-Mobile have learned, sustaining that buzz may not be so easy, especially with Apple expected to introduce a new iPhone, perhaps as early as next week.

The smartphone market is still in its early growth stage, however, and things may yet pick up for Android. The G2 — marketed as the HTC Magic — launched in Europe in April and made a strong U.S. debut last week at a Google developers conference, where free G2s were handed out to each of the hundreds of attendees. According to the New York Times, Google expects there to be at least 18 different Android phones on the market from eight or nine manufacturers before the end of the year.

According to its Web site, Net Applications’ monthly surveys are conducted by sampling browser data from some 160 million visits to Web sites operated by its clients. The firm describes the results as “market shares,” but they do not actually measure share of market in the traditional sense of revenue or unit sales. They do, however, provide a consistent methodology by which to gauge operating system trends. (See Ars Technica for a good review of the different ways to measure market share.)

You can review Net Applications’ May data here. The computer operating system data is free; unfortunately, a paid subscription is required to view its detailed mobile browsing data.

See also:

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May 25, 2009, 9:27 am

Palm Pre launch plans leaked

pre-launch-manual-picture-08-rm-engIt’s labeled “Sprint confidential information for internal use only,” and accompanied by a warning that any “improper sharing” is considered a leak, will be investigated, and could result in “termination.”

But that didn’t prevent a copy of Sprint’s business/executive launch guide for the Palm Pre from falling into the hands of the sleuths at Engadget, who published the 21-page document in its entirety on Sunday.

It’s chock full of juicy details — including the dates of a Hollywood promotional event (June 3), a New York executive breakfast (June 5) and invitation-only VIP events at 10 flagship stores (June 5).

For the rest of us, who have to wait for the official June 6 launch, there are instructions to staff about who should and shouldn’t be sold Palm’s (PALM) bet-the-company device.

“We Can’t Afford to Sell the Pre to the Wrong Customers,” warns the call-out text.

But most relevant for would-be buyers — and competitors — are the details of Sprint’s (S) pricing plans, which start at $69.99 (for “Everything Data” and 450 calling minutes per month) and $99.99 (for “Simply Everything,” which includes unlimited minutes). See the chart below:

Sprint pricing plans

There’s also a handy “Smokes the Competition” chart that compares features and pricing with AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and T-Mobile (DT) for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry Storm and Google’s (GOOG) and HTC’s G1, respectively. See below:

Smokes the competition

For anyone thinking about buying a Pre, it’s a must-read. Get it here.

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May 8, 2009, 8:19 am

A compass for the iPhone?

iPhone compassEver since Apple (AAPL) shipped the first beta version of iPhone 3.0, the new firmware scheduled for release this summer, developers have been mining it for evidence of any new hardware features that might appear in the next iPhone — widely expected to ship around the same time.

The latest discovery, via The Boy Genius Report: controls for a digital compass.

Compass toggle switchThe first hints that Apple might be planning to add a magnetometer to the next-generation iPhone were reported in April by MacRumors. But this evidence is a lot stronger: a pair of screen shots with toggle switches for “Show in Compass” and “Log Compass.”

What could you do with a compass-equipped iPhone? MacRumors offered several suggestions last April, including a couple prototype “augmented reality” games that combined real-world backgrounds with computer-generated characters.

But the killer app may be the one that was featured so prominently at the unveiling last September of HTC’s G1, the first mobile phone to run on Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system. The highlight of the press conference was the demo of a G1 running Google Maps Street View in Compass Mode.

Street View, which didn’t appear on the iPhone for another two months, allows you to scroll through thousands of 360-degree panoramic street-level photographs of locations in the United States, Europe, Australia and Japan.

But the G1, which has had a built-in magnetometer from Day 1, took Street View one step further. Rather than having to drag or click to navigate the images of a particular street corner, you could just swing the phone up, down, left or right. The image on the screen shifted as the phone did, creating an effect not unlike the one you would get through a built-in camera if you were actually standing on that street corner, rather than just visiting it in cyberspace. YouTube video of an early demo is pasted below the fold.

It’s pretty cool. It’s been available on the G1 since that phone’s October 2008 release. If the hints and rumors prove true, it could come to the iPhone this summer.

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May 5, 2009, 9:53 am

Antitrust inquiry: How Apple and Google compete

google_apple_logoGiven the looming presence of Microsoft (MSFT) on the PC desktop, we tend to think of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) as corporate best friends united by a common enemy.

But the news Monday night that the U.S. government has opened an inquiry into the two companies’ “interlocking directorates” under the Clayton Antitrust Act has prompted a fresh look at the extent to which Apple and Google are, in fact, competitors.

We assume, by the way, that the red flag that caught the attention of the Federal Trade Commission is Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s seat on Apple’s board, since the only other overlap is Arthur Levinson, former chief executive of Genentech (DNA), a gene-splicing company.

Schmidt is known to recuse himself from Apple board meetings when the iPhone is discussed. That makes sense. It wouldn’t be fair for Google’s team Android to get inside information about Apple’s plans for future mobile devices.

But does Schmidt leave the room when Safari comes up? Or iTunes? Or MobileMe?

When you start to look at the hundreds of software products Apple and Google make — especially on the Web — things quickly get pretty complicated. Here’s a partial list of the areas in which we know Apple and Google compete:

  • Smartphone operating systems: iPhone vs. Android
  • Web browsers: Safari vs. Chrome
  • Music and video: iTunes vs. YouTube
  • Cloud computing: MobileMe vs. iGoogle
  • e-mail services: Mail vs. Gmail
  • Address lists: Address Book vs. Contacts
  • Calendars: iCal vs. Google Calendar
  • Chat: iChat vs. Google Talk
  • Photos: iPhoto vs. Picasa
  • File storage: iDisk vs. Google Docs

There could be many more. If you spot any we’ve missed, put them in the comment stream and we’ll add them here.

By the way, according to the New York Times, which broke this story, interlocking directorates rarely lead to major confrontations between companies and the government. It’s easier just to ask the director or directors in question to resign from one board or the other.

Arthur Levinson’s seats are probably safe.

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May 1, 2009, 9:54 am

J.D. Power survey: iPhone tops in all but battery

JD Power awardsApple’s (AAPL) iPhone took first place in J.D. Power’s 2009 smartphone consumer satisfaction survey released Thursday.

The iPhone ranked highest in every category except battery life, where it was tied for last place with Motorola (MOT).

Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry, by contrast, scored highest in battery life but ran with the middle of the pack in the other categories (physical design, ease of operation, features, operating system and overall satisfaction).

The survey was conducted between July and December 2008 among 2,648 smartphone users. Apple scored 791 on a scale of 1,000.

In a separate survey of 15,270 owners of traditional mobile phones, LG did best, followed closely by Sony Ericsson.

The iPhone’s nearest competitors were two phones running on Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows Mobile: LG and Samsung. They were followed by HTC, running Google’s (GOOG) Android. RIM, Palm (PALM) and Motorola brought up the rear.

Below: The smartphone consumer satisfaction summary. Individual scores below the fold.

JD Powers 2009

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April 7, 2009, 6:09 pm

16% of teens, 30% of professionals plan to buy iPhones

Changewave april smartphoneTwo surveys released Tuesday, one of American teenagers, the other of professionals and early adopters, show interest in Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone holding steady despite increased competition from Research in Motion (RIMM), Google (GOOG) and Palm (PALM).

In its biannual “Taking Stock With Teens” survey, Piper Jaffray reported that the iPhone remains popular among U.S. teenagers — although it’s not as hot as it was immediately following the launch of the iPhone 3G last July. Sixteen percent of those surveyed in March planned to buy an iPhone in the next six months, down from 22% in October.

The number of teens who actually own iPhones, however, remained flat at about 8%. Piper Jaffray’s Andrew Murphy attributes the descrepancy between those who aspire to and those who actually own iPhones to parental sticker shock at AT&T’s (T) rates. “Teens definitely want the iPhone,” says Murphy, “but expensive data plans may be the limiting factor in parents’ minds.”

The survey of adults, conducted in mid-March by ChangeWave Research, showed a similar pattern, but at a significantly higher level of interest. Among the 4,292 relatively well-heeled cell phone owners who responded, 37% planned to buy a BlackBerry in the next six months, 30% planned to buy an iPhone and 4% planned to buy a Palm.

As research director Paul Carton notes, interest in Palm — having almost flat-lined — is growing measurably in advance of the expected release of the Palm Pre. Interest in the iPhone peaked last summer, when 56% of ChangeWave types said they planned to buy the new model. Interest in RIM’s BlackBerries peaked, although not as sharply, in December, after the release of its new models.

Asked about the new iPhone 3.0 operating system that Apple has said it will release this summer, one in five ChangeWave respondents said they’d be even more likely to buy an iPhone in the future. When asked specifically about possible new iPhones and price points, they returned these results:

  • 9% said they are likely to buy a 32GB iPhone 3G ($299)
  • 11% said they are likely to buy a 16GB iPhone 3G ($199)
  • 8% said they are likely to buy the 8GB Traditional iPhone ($99)

All of which bodes well for Apple, according to Carton.

Palm has a tougher challenge, he says. Not only are BlackBerry and iPhone owners remarkably loyal to their providers (only 4% of RIM customers and 1% of Apple customers said they were likely to switch to a Palm), but Palm has tied its fate to Sprint, a carrier that only 1% of respondents want to switch to.

Back in the teen survey, Murphy attributes much of the iPhone’s popularity to the penetration of the iPod and iTunes Store among this cohort. The iPod’s market share has held steady at 86% over the past 12 months, and although only 19% of teens planned to buy a new MP3 player this coming year (down from 34% six months ago), 100% of those who did planned to buy iPods.

Meanwhile, iTunes now enjoys a 97% market share among teens — up from 81% a year ago — with No. 2 RealNetworks hanging on at 2%.

“Apple’s dominance in the consumer electronics and online music markets is going seemingly unchecked,” wrote Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster in a separate report to clients. “We believe that the teen demographic is a critical  component of long-term growth in the digital music and mobile markets, and Apple is taking its leading position in music and moving  aggressively into the mobile market.”

The recession didn’t seem to play a large role in either the Piper Jaffray or ChangeWave reports, although neither survey focused on the poor or recently unemployed. The main group of 600 teens surveyed by Piper Jaffray enjoyed an average household income of $73,000; another 9% had household incomes of $100,000.

The ChangeWave survey, according to its literature, is drawn from “a group of 20,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals — as well as early adopter consumers — who work in leading companies of select industries. They are credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives on the frontline of technological change.”

They are not, presumably, standing in the unemployment lines.

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @ philiped]

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April 3, 2009, 8:54 am

Apple stock is up 31 percent this year

The stock is not what it was in 2007, when it rose nearly 136% in the space of 12 months, but Apple (AAPL) is off to a good start in 2009.

From Jan. 2, when it opened at $85.88, to April 2, when it closed at $112.71, Apple has gained 31.24% — easily outpacing the Dow, which is still down more than 9% for the year.

So how is Apple doing relative to the stocks it’s most often compared with, the so-called “Four Horsemen of Tech”? As the chart below shows, it has so far out-performed Google (GOOG) and Research in Motion (RIMM), but paled beside Amazon (AMZN), which is up 48%.

. Four horsemen q1 2009

Apple is nothing if not volatile, but not matter what happens there’s no way that 2009 could to end up looking like 2008, when its shares fell more than 56% and its market cap dropped nearly $100 billion. Apple’s enterprise value today is $71 billion and $28.8 billion of that is in cash and negotiable securities.

Apple opened at $113.75 and was up more than 2% in early trading Friday.

The big mover Friday, however, was RIM, which opened at $58.13, up nearly 20% following Thursday’s surprisingly strong fourth-quarter earnings report. That pushes it ahead of Apple in the Four Horsemen chart, but still trailing Amazon.

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April 1, 2009, 8:37 am

Competitors gaining on the iPhone

Smartphone pie (2)Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone still has what Net Applications describes as a “commanding lead” in the smartphone search market, but its competitors are gaining fast, according to preliminary data issued overnight Tuesday.

When Net Applications issued its first survey of this market last month, it reported that nearly two out of every three Web searches conducted from a mobile phone in February were made from an iPhone. As Net Applications measures it — a big caveat (see below) — the iPhone’s share of searches dropped in March to 63.41% from 66.44%.

This does not mean that iPhone Web browsing is shrinking, the Web metrics firm notes, because the overall market is growing rapidly. (link)

But it does mean that Google’s (GOOG) Android, Nokia’s (NOK) Symbian and Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry — in that order — are catching up, although none has yet managed to grab more than a 9% share.

Android’s growth is particularly striking: up 2.31 points, or 36%, in one month. (See the chart below for the full results.)

The BlackBerry, which was consigned to the catch-all “other” category in February, finally emerged in March as a line item of its own, but with only a 2.69% share.

How can the iPhone’s share be so high and the BlackBerry’s so low?

As we pointed out last month, the fact that it’s easier to surf the Web on an iPhone is only part of the answer. A more important reason emerges from Net Applications’ description of how its surveys are conducted:

“Our mobile share methodology measures share for browser capable mobile devices. This means the mobile device must be able to render HTML pages and javascript.  Visits to WAP pages are not included.” (link)

WAP (for Wireless Application Protocol) was the Web browsing standard for BlackBerries and other mobile phones  –  famously dismissed by Steve Jobs as the “baby Web“  — until the iPhone came along and offered a Web browser with HTML and Javascript.

In other words, Net Applications is judging the race for mobile Web dominance using the rules set by the iPhone.

The results of the February and March surveys are summarized in the chart below. To learn more about Net Applications, click here.

March smartphone spreadsheet

See also:

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March 31, 2009, 5:58 am

Skype by the numbers – Update

skype-flash-on-iphone

Skype, the world’s most popular program for making free overseas phone calls over the Internet, was released as a free download to Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone and iPod touch on Monday. You can get it here.

This could be big. How big? Let’s look at the numbers.

  • In 2008, Skype users spent 33 billion minutes talking to people in other countries, representing 8% of all international voice traffic, according to TeleGeography Research. (link)
  • That makes it the world’s No. 1 provider of cross-border voice communications, according to the same report. By comparison, Verizon (V), iBasis (IBAS), and Tata (TCL), each provide about 20 billion to 30 billion minutes of international traffic each year. (link)
  • Skype ended 2008 with 405 million user accounts, a 47% increase from 2007.  (link)
  • Skype is adding new users at the rate of 35 million subscribers per quarter. (link to pdf)
  • Skype usage hit an all-time peak on March 23, 2009, when more than 17 million users were online at the same time. (link)

Skype pie chartDespite all this, Skype is said to be a disappointment for EBay (EBAY), which acquired the Luxembourg-based company in 2005 for $2.6 billion. EBay had hoped that buyers and sellers on its online auction site would use Skype to chat about their purchases. When that service didn’t click with users, EBay had to write off nearly $1 billion of its Skype investment, according to Businessweek. (link)

Adding to EBay’s disappointment is the fact that revenue from Skype users isn’t growing as fast as its user base. As Businessweek points out, its 2008 Q4 sales of $145 million were up just 1.3% sequentially, even though registered users increased 10% in the same period. (link)

So now Skype is making a big push into what’s expected to be the real engine for future growth: VOIP (voice over Internet protocol) calls made over cell phones, a field Google (GOOG) is also exploring.

Skype's growth (2)In January, Skype became available on phones that run Google’s Android operating system, including T-Mobile’s (DT) G1. In February Skype announced that Nokia (NOK) will be selling smartphones with a Skype client pre-installed.

Late Monday, shortly before midnight, Skype came to the iPhone and iPod touch — an installed base of 30 million users. In May the company plans to release a client for selected models of the Research in Motion (RIMM) BlackBerry.

There are already several VOIP clients available on the iPhone, including Fring, Truphone and Nimbuzz, but none has the name recognition of Skype.

iPhone calls between Skype accounts are free, but in deference to AT&T (T), its U.S. partner, Apple will allow them only to be made over Wi-Fi connections, not over AT&T’s cell phone network. [UPDATE: 9to5Mac reports that when run on a beta version of iPhone 3.0, the Skype app allows calls to be made over AT&T's 3G network.]

Skype calls to landlines and cell phones not running the Skype client are charged a fee. These are usually considerably lower than overseas rates, but higher than charges made for calls within networks.

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Philip Elmer-DeWittSilicon Valley veterans like to joke that Steve Jobs must be surrounded by a reality distortion field; if you get too close to him, you start to believe what he's saying. Thanks to the success of the iPod, the launch of the iPhone and the renewed interest in the Mac, Apple has made believers out of millions of customers - and made a lot of investors rich. But Philip Elmer-DeWitt believes that an ounce of skepticism never hurts when writing about the company. He should know. He's been covering Apple - and watching Steve Jobs operate - since 1982, first for Time Magazine, then for Business 2.0, and now for Fortune.
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