Fasten your seat belts.

Although Apple should report better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Monday — it almost always does — its shares could be in for a bumpy ride on Wall Street.

Apple’s (AAPL) stock price — having bungee-jumped from $200 in late December to below $120 in mid-March and then back up to $190 in mid-May — has been drifting lower ever since, despite the high-profile launch of a new iPhone and the expectation of sharply higher earnings.

According to Thompson Financial’s survey of analysts, Apple is expected to report net income of $972.6 million, or $1.08 per share, on sales of $7.4 billion. In the same period last year the company earned $818 million, or 92 cents a share, on sales of $5.4 billion.

But these days, even 18% earnings growth from Apple is unlikely to impress the Street. The company could report its best third fiscal quarter (our calendar Q2) yet and still lose market value.

By most accounts, Q3 was a strong one for Apple. In a report to clients issued Friday morning, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster saw good news in all three of its key divisions:

• Macintosh: He believes Apple will announce quarterly sales of 2.35 million Macs — 33% year-to-year growth in an industry that is growing at half that rate. (On Wednesday Gartner reported that Apple is now the No. 3 computer maker in the United States. See here.)
• iPhone: Munster is expecting Apple to report that it sold 730,000 iPhones in Q3 — slightly better than the 700,000 Apple already reported. (The 1 million iPhones that Apple claims flew off the shelves in three days last week don’t count until next quarter.)
• iPod: Although many had predicted that the iPhone would cut into iPod sales, Munster is seeing little cannibalization so far. He expects Apple to report 10.5 to 11 million iPods sold — up from his previous estimate of 10.25 million.

But Wall Street’s antennae are finely tuned for disappointment. Although Apple just had a record-breaking, made-for-TV product launch — with people still queuing up for the iPhone 3G a week after it went on sale — none of that produced much traction in Apple’s share price. Investors seemed to concentrate instead on the fact that Apple’s iPhone activation servers melted down, that most of their stores ran out of product and that the new MobileMe suite of Web services is a mess that the company still hasn’t cleaned up (see here).

Shaw Wu, the top Apple analyst at American Technology Research, is focused on the company’s gross margins, which came in surprisingly low last quarter for reasons that were never adequately explained. He’s expecting gross margins of 33.5%, slightly higher than the company’s 33% guidance. But he notes that lower component prices last quarter did not translate into higher gross margins. “Investors chose to ignore this and gave AAPL a ‘free pass,’” he writes. “Given the macro environment, this quarter investors may not be so forgiving.”

In an article entitled “Why I’m Shorting Apple Ahead of Earnings” that got a lot of attention on the Seeking Alpha website this week, investor Ben Shuleva ticked off a litany of reasons he expects Apple’s share price to get punished after Monday’s earnings report, from cutbacks in education budgets that could eat into Apple’s back-to-school sales to the way Apple books iPhone revenues over 24 months, an accounting complexity the Street still doesn’t understand, no matter how many times Apple explains it.

“I am not bearish on Apple long-term,” Shuleva writes. But… “I am willing to make a significant bet that on a short-term basis, Apple’s share price will deteriorate.” (link)

Finally, there’s the matter of Apple’s guidance for its fourth quarter, which ends in September. Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s chief financial officer, has been known to send the stock into a tailspin by issuing numbers that are miles below Wall Street’s expectations. “We believe AAPL will likely continue its tradition of conservative guidance,” writes Wu, with considerable understatement.

The question is, how conservative? If it’s the usual 9% or 10% below expectations, it shouldn’t make much difference. Anything lower could damage the stock. And if Oppenheimer offers guidance that’s better than expected, who knows, the stock might actually go up.

That first weekend of iPhone 3G sales was a very profitable one for Apple (AAPL), based on some quick back-of-the envelope analysis.

We know from Apple that the company sold at least 1 million iPhones in those first three days. We know from a teardown published by iSuppli Monday roughly how much the phones cost to build. We know their retail price and have some pretty good estimates of how much that retail price was subsidized by AT&T (T) and the other carriers. Finally, we have a Piper Jaffray survey that suggests how many customers chose the more expensive 16 GB model over the entry level 8GB.

Here are the numbers:

• At least 1 million iPhones sold over the first weekend (Apple)
• Cost to Apple: $174.33 parts plus $50 royalties for 8GB model; $16 more for 16GB model (iSuppli)
• Cost to consumers: $199 (8GB), $299 (16GB) (Apple)
• Cost to carriers: conservatively, $499 (8GB), $599 (16GB) (iSuppli)
• Profit per phone: $274.67 (8GB) and $358.67 (16GB)
• Models sold: 33% (8GB), 66% (16GB) (Piper Jaffray survey)

Bottom line:

• 333,333 8GB iPhones @ $274.67 profit each = $91,556,000
• 666,666 16GB iPhones @ $358.67 each = $239,113,000
• Total profit to Apple: $330,669,000.

There are other costs Apple incurred that aren’t accounted for here: software development, shipping and distribution, packaging and miscellaneous accessories included with each phone — the little black cloth for cleaning the screen, for example.

Still, it’s probably a conservative number because it’s based on iSuppli’s estimated subsidy of $300 per phone. Other analysts put that figure at $350 (see, for example, here). That would add $50 million to Apple’s bottom line.

Shoppers hunting for iPhone 3Gs can still find them — if they’re willing to get up early and, in some cases, drive long distances.

As of 6:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday, all three models (8GB black, 16 GB black or white) of the hot-selling device were sold out in 21 states, according to Jim Neal, a retired PR man living near Kansas City who took the time to check each of Apple’s 188 U.S. retail stores using the company’s iPhone availability widget.

“All told,” he writes, “117 Apple stores reported having sold out of all models and only 27 stores indicated they had all three models in stock.”

The states reporting no stock on hand were Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin.

Apple (AAPL) advises shoppers to check availability after 9:00 p.m. the night before they visit an Apple retail store – and, if necessary, get up at the crack of dawn.

“Shipments arrive most days,” according to the site, “but be sure to arrive early since iPhone 3G is sold on a first come, first served basis.”

1,800 AT&T (T) stores also carried iPhone 3Gs, but they were “virtually” sold out the first day of sales, according to a company spokesman, and there is no word on when they will be restocked.

UPDATE: Jim Neal did another survey Wednesday morning. As of 7:00 a.m. EDT, 146 Apple stores in 23 states were completely out of stock.

Defying sluggish sign-up procedures and a worldwide crash of its computerized activation system, Apple sold its one-millionth 3G phone Sunday, three days after its debut, according to a company press release Monday morning.

“iPhone 3G had a stunning opening weekend,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “It took 74 days to sell the first one million original iPhones, so the new iPhone 3G is clearly off to a great start around the world.”

Although at least one analyst had predicted that Apple and its partners would sell a million units worldwide at launch, a survey of stores conducted by Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster put sales at less than half that many.

In a report to clients issued a few hours before Apple’s announcement, Munster had estimated that Apple had sold about 425,000 iPhones worldwide and that it would take Apple at least 17 days to hit the one million mark.

One explanation for the discrepancy may have to do with how Apple counts sales. Sales at Apple Stores are recorded at the register. But sales to its partners — in this case, AT&T and the overseas carriers — are recorded when the devices leave the loading docks in Asia. In other words, some of those 1 million iPhones recorded as sold by Apple (AAPL) may still be in transit.

Indeed, Munster makes the same point in a revised report issued to clients later Monday morning. He also speculates that sales must have accelerated over the weekend as Apple cleared up its iTunes activation problems:

“We underestimated the number of phones sold per hour throughout the weekend and Apple’s recovery from activation issues. While we believe Friday’s 24 phones per hour is probably a close guess for Friday, the number likely increased significantly on Saturday and Sunday, well above our previous estimate of 28 phones per hour.”

For a summary of the original Piper Jaffray report, see here.

In a second press release, Apple announced that iPhone and iPod touch owners have downloaded more than 10 million applications from the App Store since it launched last week. Steve Jobs proclaimed the online store, which offers more than 550 programs for wireless download, “a grand slam.”

UPDATE: Apple on Monday issued a press release announcing that it sold its 1 millionth iPhone 3G on Sunday. News from the company has apparently overtaken Gene Munster’s analysis, below.

“iPhone 3G had a stunning opening weekend,” said Steve Jobs, according to the press release. “It took 74 days to sell the first one million original iPhones, so the new iPhone 3G is clearly off to a great start around the world.”

Apple offered no further details. In a revised note issued later Monday morning, Munster attributed the discrepancy, at least in part, to how Apple records its sales. See here.

- - - -

In a report that will disappoint investors who were hoping for a 1-million-unit weekend, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster estimated on Monday that Apple and its partners sold less than half that many iPhone 3Gs worldwide in its first three days on the market

[Update: In his revised report, Munster acknowledged that "First weekend estimates exceeded our 425k estimate based on strength in international and improvement in activation process throughout the weekend."]

Still, sales were 40% higher than last year, according to Munster, who [originally estimated that it would] take Apple 17 days to sell 1 million iPhone 3Gs. Last year the company announced the sale of the 1 millionth iPhone 74 days after its first model went on sale.

“The improvement is driven by two key factors,” Munster writes. “1) international availablilty in 21 countries, and 2) a 60% lower entry-level price point.”

Piper Jaffray’s report to clients — the first detailed analysis of iPhone 3G sales — was based on observations of Apple (AAPL) and AT&T (T) stores in New York and Minneapolis, estimates of the rates of sales, the hours of operation and the number of units supplied to each store, as well as surveys of 283 attendees. It’s packed with useful information. The highlights:

• Roughly 425,000 iPhones sold worldwide in three days, despite activation problems [Update: Make that 1 million, per Apple's press release and Munster's revised report.]
• 225,000 sold in the United States, 75,000 in the United Kingdom, an average of 7,000 in each of the other 19 countries [Update: Munster now estimates that 400,000 iPhones were sold in the United States, 250,000 in the United Kingdom and an average of 18,000 each in the other 19 countries.]
• 380,000 sold in the first two days (compared with 270,000 in a day and a half last year) [No update yet.]
• Sales slowed by the approximately 15 minutes it took to activate each phone (sales at Apple stores last year took about 1 minute each)
• 66% of customers purchased the 16 GB iPhone (last year, 91% bought the top-of-the-line 8GB model)
• 38% were upgrading from the original iPhone
• 39% were PC users (versus 25% last year)
• 38% of customers in the United States were new to AT&T as opposed to 52% last year

Below the fold: details from the Piper Jaffray survey and its country-by-country breakdown of estimated sales.

Let the guessing game begin!

On Sunday morning, with one more day of weekend sales to go, analysts and other Apple watchers were already weighing in with their estimates for the iPhone 3Gs three-day launch.

First out of the block was RBC Capital Market’s Mike Abramsky, who issued his best guess on Friday. Based on pent-up demand, expanded distribution, and lower pricing, he predicted that worldwide sales for the first weekend would be more than 1 million units. (link)

Some of his readers thought that too conservative by half. One put first weekend sales at 3.3 million (1.2 million U.S., 2.1 million overseas).

The investors at The Mac Observer’s Apple Finance Board were considerably more cautious. “Anything over 600k this weekend would be great,” wrote one, pointing out that this year, unlike last, there were no online sales. Another came up with a total of just under 800,000 for the United States alone using a formula based on number of retail outlets and average sales per store:

ATT = 75 * 3 * 2200 = 495,000
Apple= 500 *3 * 200 = 300,000
Total = 795,000 US only. (link)

Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, who bases his sales estimates on store surveys, is still counting. We’ll update when his numbers come in.

UPDATE: Munster’s report to clients arrived Monday morning. He estimates that Apple and its partners sold about 390,000 iPhones worldwide on Friday and Saturday and 425,000 over the entire three-day weekend. He estimates that 225,000 of those sales were in the U.S. and 200,000 were overseas. For more detail, click here.

UPDATE 2: Apple issued the report that really matters on Monday morning, a few hours after Munster filed his. See Apple: 1 million iPhone 3Gs sold in three days.

How does this launch compare with last year’s?

That’s not easy to say. Sales estimates for the original iPhone were complicated by the fact that the first two days of sales fell in one fiscal quarter and the third was in another. Analysts’ numbers for the entire three-day weekend ranged from 375,000 (American Technology Research) to 700,000 (Goldman Sachs). (link)

The lower figure (supplied by Shaw Wu of ATR, who pegged sales at 125,000 per day) turned out to be more accurate. Actual sales for the first day and a half, according to Apple’s (AAPL) Q3 2007 earnings report, were 270,000 units. (link)

The upside of simultaneously launching four major products — the iPhone 3G, the App Store, iPhone firmware 2.0 and MobileMe — in more than 20 countries around the world is that you get people’s attention.

That’s not an easy thing to do in this media-saturated age.

The downside of this form of event marketing — which Steve Jobs pioneered — is that you risk blowing it on a really big stage, in this case by overloading your servers and triggering a global customer satisfaction meltdown.

That’s what happened to Apple (AAPL) on Friday. Too many of the iPhone’s six-million existing customers tried to upgrade to the new firmware just as hundreds of thousand of new iPhone 3G customers were trying to activate their phones on the same iTunes servers.

Complicating matters were spot breakdowns in credit card readers, EasyPay PCs, and the AT&T (T) activation system that failed last year. (AT&T, as Fortune.com reported, was quick to blame this year’s problems on Apple.)

The result was a rolling meltdown across the Earth’s timezones that Gizmodo dubbed the iPocalypse — a coinage that quickly spread (see, for example, the New York Times and All Things Digital.)

[CORRECTION: Credit may actually belong to a Gizmodo reader -- one brianhatch -- who wrote "my god, it's the iPocalypse" in a comment date-stamped Friday, 10:09 a.m. EDT.]

Suffering the most were the hundreds of people who had queued up outside Apple Stores — in some cases for as long as a week. Last year the lines moved quickly because the phones could be purchased with the swipe of a credit card and activated at home. This year’s purchase procedure, already complicated by the requirement that customers sign an extended contract with a carrier before leaving the store, bogged down entirely. Progress at the back of the lines slowed to a glacial pace.

The iTunes servers came back up late Friday and by Saturday morning the activation problems were mostly resolved.

But MobileMe, the new basket of Web applications that Apple had promised to have running Wednesday night, was still not working. Visitors trying to use the service got instead this error message (in four languages):

The MobileMe transition is underway but is taking longer than expected. While core services such as desktop mail, iDisk and sync are available, the new MobileMe web applications are not yet online. Thank you for your patience as we complete the upgrade.

For a first-hand account of our descent into activation hell, see Live! From the Fifth Ave. iPhone line.

UPDATE: As several readers have noted, MobileMe works if you go to http://www.me.com. Inexplicably, the mac.com address still produces that four-language error message.

UPDATE 2: Midafternoon Saturday: received an automated message from Apple that MobileMe is working now.

Below the fold, two short videos that capture the dramatic action at Apple’s flagship store on Fifth Avenue moments before the iPhone 3G went on sale Friday morning.

The first is a trip down the big circular staircase from the front of the line, with Apple staffers in blue and teal whooping, applauding and shouting encouragement.

The second shows what immediately preceded it: Daniel Bowman Simon, leader of TheWhoFarm group, being roughed up and escorted off the premises by one of the security guards hired by Apple (AAPL) to keep things orderly. He was first in line, having camped out for a week in front of the big glass cube, but something about him rubbed the head security guy the wrong way. Simon was trying to bring a basket of apples into the store when security grabbed him.

Daniel was eventually allowed into the store — without his apples — accompanied by two uniformed cops.

For more reporting from the iPhone 3G line, see Apple 2.0’s live blog here.

I bought an iPhone for myself on Friday. This was a live blog to chronicle the event, posted in reverse order with the most recent items on top.

11:47 a.m. The iPhone just beeped. I’m in. Entered my e-mail address and the sync is in progress. That ends this blog.

POSTSCRIPT from Brooklyn: I counted roughly 230 people in line as I left the Apple Store, none of whom were among the 150 who were queued up at 5:00 a.m. (a woman coming in as I left said she’d been waiting since 7:30). I put the total count at somewhere between 380 and 500. It was a friendly, patient crowd — the usual New York mix of ages and colors — although by the time I left the people at the end were wondering how long they would stick with it if it kept moving so slowly.

Meanwhile, I still don’t have a working iPhone. The endless barber shop in iTunes has been replaced with an error message: good old unknown error (-9838). I gather from comments below and from reports here and here that Apple’s activation servers have crashed. Last year the server problems were on AT&T’s end.

10:00 a.m. On the advice of Nicki, a savvy Apple rep who seems to know what she’s talking about, I’m headed home. I can do this as well from the comfort of my leafy backyard as I can standing here.

9:38 a.m. iPhone out and plugged in. The screen is telling me to plug it in, even though it already is. But the device shows up in iTunes and I’m getting the “accessing iTunes” barber pole. I’m told by the nearest Apple rep that it’s going to be a long wait — as much as 20 minutes. Apparently a lot of people are trying to do this at the same time. Not clear if the delay is Apple’s or AT&T’s.

9:31 a.m. Authorization successful. $215.67. I sign again. Give my zip code for the fourth or fifth time. Transaction competed.

9:29 a.m. I sign the EasyPay PC for the second time. When we’re done here, I’m supposed to find an orange T-shirt for “personalization.”

9:20 a.m. Back to the Genius Bar — next to Daniel as it turns out. Since the first phone was partially activated, they have to start again with a new one.

9:18 a.m. A breakthrough! Michael reports that the long wait was due to the first AT&T operative misspelling my name (an easy mistake), which created a conflict with my social security number. I’m being sent back to the line (but at the front, not the back).

9:10 a.m. After a long wait, Michael has reached someone at AT&T named Jeffrey. They want my Social Security number again. For the fourth time. Did I mention that I’m trying to do the simplest possible purchase: a new account, one line?

9:05 a.m. Update from Daniel’s crew. His transaction is taking as long as mine. Apparently he’s trying to buy eight iPhones at once. I  wonder where the money is coming from…

9:00 a.m. It’s been a full hour now. AT&T has been doing a credit check for the past 15 minutes. These Apple people — mine is named Michael — have the patience of saints. I’m happy to have power and Wi-Fi.

8:44 a.m. We’ve had to get AT&T on the line, which means spelling out names and numbers, one character at a time, over and over. Katie Cotton, Steve Jobs’ personal PR maven, stops by to commiserate.

8:24 a.m. I’m a problem case. They’ve moved me to a separate table for special handling.

8:14 a.m. Daniel shows up. The box of apples was the last straw, but he’d pushed the security guys to the edge. He finally had to get escorted in by the NYPD. They’re a little friendlier than whomever Apple hired to do security. He’s trying to buy three phones, one for himself, one for John McCain and one for Barack Obama. We’ll have to see how that worked out.

8:11 a.m. My credit card isn’t swiping. They’re taking my information manually. Other people seem to be moving through at the rate of one every 10 minutes.

8:09 a.m. The EasyPay is having “network problems.” Someone gets another unit. Still waiting.

8:06 a.m. The roar from the Apple staff shouting and clapping is disorienting as we walk down the big circular staircase. (See video here.) We’re directed to the long table that usually houses the genius bar. I hand over my credit card and photo ID. A staffer pulls out a black box with an 8GB iPhone 3G and begins working with his EasyPay Pocket PC. It’s the start of what turns out to be a long, difficult process.

8:00 a.m. An unpleasant incident just as the doors open. Daniel Bowman Simon, organizer of TheWhoFarm group that has been here for a week, rushes to the door with a laptop, an Amerian flag and a box of apples. He’s grabbed by a security guard, who wrestles with him and then drags him off toward 58th Street. (See video here.) Everybody — the press, the Apple staff, the WhoFarmers, the people at the front of the line — is a little stunned. But the doors are open and, hesitantly at first, we trudge in.

7:45 a.m. Running low on battery. May have to pick this up after the event.

7:40 a.m. Getting closer. TV cameras everywhere you turn. CBS Early Show shows up with a team of five or six to get a shot of Greg Price, the talent, walking through the crowd. TheWhoFarm is trying — so far in vain — to pull together a press conference to publicize their online petition to turn the White House lawn into an organic farm. Harry Smith from CBS shows up in heavy pancake make up flashing a white iPhone 3G, 25 minutes before the doors open.

7:05 a.m. Greg Packer, 44, the retired highway maintenance worker who had his 15 minutes of fame in 2007 when he headed the Fifth Ave. iPhone line, (his wait: 4 days, 13 hours) has showed up in a Bon Jovi shirt. He’s still using his original iPhone, which except for some visible wear on the edges seems none the worse for wear.

7:00 a.m. The barricades are up, creating a zig-zag on Fifth Ave., and the line has moved up to fill it.

6:50 a.m. Ron Johnson, Apple’s vice president for retail, shows up. He’s whisked into the store by PR, who explain that he’s on a tight schedule and doesn’t have time to chat.

6:45 a.m. Apple employees in blue and orange t-shirts have broken out a few boxes of Smart water, preparing to hydrate the crowd, should things get hot.

6:30 a.m. The barricades are being moved into place and hooked together. The line has shifted 50 feet closer to the entrance. Much confusion as word moves down the queue. A surly looking guy in a black shirt and jeans has fallen asleep around position 11 and will not be moved. “I’m not here to buy an iPhone,” he tells everyone who asks him to move. “I just want to sleep.”

6:15 a.m. Things are starting to heat up. A dozen big guys with blue Squad Security shirts have gathered menancingly outside the metal barriers. They are threatening to move TheWhoFarm people who have been camped out here for a week and have collected a week’s worth of detritus (chairs, blankets, boxes of apples, a solar collector). The press have started to move in as well. Four satellite trucks from the networks have parked on 58th Street, their masts looming 30 or 40 feet high. Camera men with sound guys tethered to them roam up and down the line, grabbing sound bites. Every once in a while someone drives by and shouts an insult, like “get a life!”

6:09 a.m. Meet a pair of French graphic designers from Marseille who have been hanging out near the front of the line hoping to pick up a second-hand iPhone or two on the cheap. Very cheap. Clement Niviere, 20, in tight red pants, wears a hand-lettered sign on his chest that reads: “I could trade my red pants with your old iPhone (really.)” His copain, Jonas Lebesgue, also 20, wears a sign that reads “KEEP your new one, GIVE the old one.” Have they had any takers? “For the moment, no,” says Clement.

5:30 a.m. The Apple employees in front confirm what I’ve been hearing: that there were more people earlier in the night but they left when they were told they had to sign a two-year contract with AT&T in order to buy an iPhone 3G today. “We’ve been going through every couple of hours,” one tells me. “A few people left every time.”

5:18 a.m. I’m at Madison and 58th, a block away from the store, talking to the guy who’s currently the last man in line, No. 150. His name is Jason and he’d prefer to leave his last name out of it. He’s 26, from Kennebunk, ME, and he moved to New York City a few months ago to take a job at Lehman Bros., the big investment bank. In his pocket he’s carrying his first iPhone, which he bought on June 30, 2007, the day after the phones first went on sale. He’ll buy a new one today and sell his old one on Craigslist.

5:10 a.m. The Apple (AAPL) store shines like ship in the dark as I approach from the Plaza Hotel subway stop. The doors are blocked off (no bathrooms or free Wi-Fi!) and blue-shirted employees stand guard at the entrance. There are people queued up behind TheWhoFarm, but I can’t see how many.

4:45 a.m. Thinking about the report in the Wall St. Journal that the Justice Dept. has decided not to press criminal charges against Apple in the options backdating case and wondering why it came out yesterday. Nobody from the D.O.J. spoke on the record. Steve Jobs wasn’t quoted and neither was his lawyer. The source seemed to be the lawyers for Nancy Heinen and Fred Anderson, the two Apple execs who were thrown under the bus, to use the late Fake Steve Jobs’ expression. She’s off the hook now, free and clear. She must be happy she decided to fight the S.E.C. He’s probably asking himself why he caved. And mourning the $150,000 fine and $3.5 million in gains he coughed up to settle the charges.

4:30 a.m. Made a cup and drank it fast, out the door by quarter past. Caught the N train at Union St. in Brooklyn. Car full of sleeping construction workers. No sign that anyone is headed where I am. It’s not like going to a ballgame in a subway full of Yankee caps.

iPhone logic board

3:00 a.m. Up early to shower and stuff. Clearing out my e-mail. Happy to see that the flood of messages from PR firms hawking iPhone apps has slowed to a trickle and we’re back the usual krill I swim through every morning, hoping for enough protein to make it through the day. The Times is talking about rescuing Fannie Mae. Salon says Jesse Helms is not dead. A dying Thai hieress wants my help transferring $12 million to the U.S. Here’s something interesting: iFixIt has sent me a better picture of the iPhone 3G logic board. THAT I can use.

Matt R., Matt D., Geoffrey and Kyle

Six days after they began queuing up to buy iPhone 3Gs outside Apple’s (AAPL) flagship Fifth Avenue store in New York City — hoping to set a Guinness record and garner publicity for the causes of sustainability and locally-grown food (see here) — the sunburned eco-warriors of TheWhoFarm finally have some company.

At 7:00 a.m. Thursday morning, 25 hours before the new iPhone goes on sale in the United States, four self-described Apple fanboys - all members of Montclair (N.J.) High School’s class of 2008 - showed up, blue canvas folding chairs in tow, to take their places in line: Nos. 11, 12, 13 and 14.

These young men better fit the stereotype of someone who might spend a day and a night - never mind seven days and seven nights - camping out in front of an Apple Store for a chance to buy the latest gadget out of Cupertino.

Matt Dodd, 17, is a registered iPhone developer, and although he says his programming skills aren’t what they’d have to be to write a full-fledged commercial application, he cared enough about the iPhone platform to go to San Francisco in January for Macworld 2008 and again in June for the World Wide Developers Conference. He’s definitely going to buy an iPhone 3G Friday.

Geoffrey Kaicher, 17, is pretty sure he’ll buy one Friday — if he can get someone to sign for it (he lacks a credit card). His pals Kyle Hobin, 18, and Matt Rosenhein, 18, alas, will not.

So why spend more than 25 hours in line?

It’s a fanboy thing. “I didn’t get to go to Macworld or WWDC,” says Rosenhein. “This is my way of being part of an Apple event.”