Fasten your seat belts.

Although Apple should report better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Monday — it almost always does — its shares could be in for a bumpy ride on Wall Street.

Apple’s (AAPL) stock price — having bungee-jumped from $200 in late December to below $120 in mid-March and then back up to $190 in mid-May — has been drifting lower ever since, despite the high-profile launch of a new iPhone and the expectation of sharply higher earnings.

According to Thompson Financial’s survey of analysts, Apple is expected to report net income of $972.6 million, or $1.08 per share, on sales of $7.4 billion. In the same period last year the company earned $818 million, or 92 cents a share, on sales of $5.4 billion.

But these days, even 18% earnings growth from Apple is unlikely to impress the Street. The company could report its best third fiscal quarter (our calendar Q2) yet and still lose market value.

By most accounts, Q3 was a strong one for Apple. In a report to clients issued Friday morning, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster saw good news in all three of its key divisions:

• Macintosh: He believes Apple will announce quarterly sales of 2.35 million Macs — 33% year-to-year growth in an industry that is growing at half that rate. (On Wednesday Gartner reported that Apple is now the No. 3 computer maker in the United States. See here.)
• iPhone: Munster is expecting Apple to report that it sold 730,000 iPhones in Q3 — slightly better than the 700,000 Apple already reported. (The 1 million iPhones that Apple claims flew off the shelves in three days last week don’t count until next quarter.)
• iPod: Although many had predicted that the iPhone would cut into iPod sales, Munster is seeing little cannibalization so far. He expects Apple to report 10.5 to 11 million iPods sold — up from his previous estimate of 10.25 million.

But Wall Street’s antennae are finely tuned for disappointment. Although Apple just had a record-breaking, made-for-TV product launch — with people still queuing up for the iPhone 3G a week after it went on sale — none of that produced much traction in Apple’s share price. Investors seemed to concentrate instead on the fact that Apple’s iPhone activation servers melted down, that most of their stores ran out of product and that the new MobileMe suite of Web services is a mess that the company still hasn’t cleaned up (see here).

Shaw Wu, the top Apple analyst at American Technology Research, is focused on the company’s gross margins, which came in surprisingly low last quarter for reasons that were never adequately explained. He’s expecting gross margins of 33.5%, slightly higher than the company’s 33% guidance. But he notes that lower component prices last quarter did not translate into higher gross margins. “Investors chose to ignore this and gave AAPL a ‘free pass,’” he writes. “Given the macro environment, this quarter investors may not be so forgiving.”

In an article entitled “Why I’m Shorting Apple Ahead of Earnings” that got a lot of attention on the Seeking Alpha website this week, investor Ben Shuleva ticked off a litany of reasons he expects Apple’s share price to get punished after Monday’s earnings report, from cutbacks in education budgets that could eat into Apple’s back-to-school sales to the way Apple books iPhone revenues over 24 months, an accounting complexity the Street still doesn’t understand, no matter how many times Apple explains it.

“I am not bearish on Apple long-term,” Shuleva writes. But… “I am willing to make a significant bet that on a short-term basis, Apple’s share price will deteriorate.” (link)

Finally, there’s the matter of Apple’s guidance for its fourth quarter, which ends in September. Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s chief financial officer, has been known to send the stock into a tailspin by issuing numbers that are miles below Wall Street’s expectations. “We believe AAPL will likely continue its tradition of conservative guidance,” writes Wu, with considerable understatement.

The question is, how conservative? If it’s the usual 9% or 10% below expectations, it shouldn’t make much difference. Anything lower could damage the stock. And if Oppenheimer offers guidance that’s better than expected, who knows, the stock might actually go up.

With Apple’s second-quarter earnings due Wednesday, some of the two dozen analysts who follow the stock have dusted off their spreadsheets, taken a fresh look at their models, and come to some last-minute conclusions.

The trend, starting with MacBook sales, is mostly bullish for Apple (AAPL); the four analysts we know of who have published new reports in the past 24 hours have pushed their Macintosh sales estimates up 100,000 to 300,000 above the Street consensus of 2.0 million. Their estimates of iPod sales, by contrast, fall below the 10.7 million consensus target. Their iPhone numbers are all over the lot, ranging from 1.5 to 2 million. For why this may be so, see Apple Q2 earnings: What to watch.

The exception to this bullish sentiment is Shaw Wu of American Technology Research. A long-time Apple supporter, he issued a turnabout report on Tuesday in which he downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral, warning clients that Apple’s shares are near his target of 175, with only 4% appreciation ahead of it and a 15% to 20% downside risk. “We continue to be upbeat on the potential for a strong 2H product roll-out,” he writes. “However, we are concerned there could be a vacuum before then. Our supply chain checks indicate 3G iPhones will not likely ship in volume until July and new Macs until the Sept. quarter, likely putting stress on the June quarter.”

Below: our working spreadsheet of the latest estimates (e-mail subscribers click here). If you’re an analyst and want your numbers added to the list, you can e-mail me here.

Looking for analyts’ target prices? Mike from Helsinki early Tuesday posted a summary on TMO’s Apple Finance Board. Here’s his list, edited slightly for clarity:

Daedalus Capital: $300 by the end of this year, $600 during next year
Piper Jaffray: $250
Needham: $235
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey: $225
Lehman Bros.: $195
CitiBank: $212
RBC Capital:$190
Merrill Lynch: $180
Morgan Stanley: $175
Goldman Sachs $185
Caris & Co.: $170

Downgrade
Morgan Keegan: $133

[Update: Reader Terry Gregory points out that he maintains a complete list of brokerage targets for Apple, color coded for upgrades and downgrades, at AAPLinvestors.net. Click here.]

Apple is set to release its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, and by coincidence its shares closed on Friday at just over $161 — almost exactly where they stood three months earlier, before Apple’s first-quarter earnings report.

Although the company in January posted the best earnings in its 32-year history, the Q1 report is remembered by investors as a disaster. In the weeks that followed, Apple (AAPL) shares fell more than 40 points — from above $160 to below $120 — knocking $36.5 billion off the company’s market capitalization. Recession fears were a big factor in what turned out to be a three-month bungee jump, but what really spooked the market was Apple’s Q2 earnings guidance: 94 cents per share, nearly 15% below the Street’s average estimate of $1.09. [Reader "Mick" points out that hedge funds dumping Apple to prop up their shaky financial positions played a major role in the sell-off. He notes that institutions held 71% of Apple's shares before the plunge and 68% after.]

So there are two things to watch for on Wednesday: 1) Apple’s sales figures for Q2, which should be stellar, and 2) what kind of guidance it gives for Q3, which is anybody’s guess.

All signs point to an excellent second quarter for Apple. The consensus of analysts surveyed Monday was looking for the company to earn $1.07 a share on $6.95 billion in sales, versus the company’s guidance of $0.94 on $6.8 billion

Strong sales of MacBooks led the quarter. IDC last week reported that, although growth in overall PC sales in the United States slowed last quarter to just 3%, Apple’s computer shipments were up 25.1%. Gartner, using slightly different methodology, reported Mac sales up 32.5%.

If Apple’s worldwide performance is anything like its domestic record, the company should easily beat the Street’s consensus of 1.95 million Macs sold in the quarter. Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster is looking for Mac sales of 2-2.1 million; JP Morgan’s Mark Moskowitz expects them to come in even higher, at 2.11 million. Either number would represent a near doubling of sales in just two years, as Ars Technica’s handy bar graph shows.

The iPod picture is not quite as rosy. There is sure to be sharp seasonal falloff from the Christmas quarter, when Apple shipped 22.1 million units. JP Morgan’s Moskowitz estimates that Apple sold 9.68 million iPods in Q2; Piper Jaffray’s Munster is calling for somewhere between 10 to 10.5 million, reflecting a sales spurt late in the quarter sparked by a sharp price cut on the low-end iPod shuffle. According to Munster, the Street has already decided that the iPod’s days of growth are behind it, and that the consensus is looking for sales of just under 53 million iPods in 2008 — essentially unchanged from 2007. Munster’s more optimistic; he believes the iPod will evolve over the next 12 months from a stand-alone music player into a mobile Internet device that fits in your pocket, and he’s looking for iPod sales to grow 10% year over year.

iPhone sales are harder to predict, given the spot shortages in the United States, excess inventory in Europe, and a chaotic black market in jailbroken iPhones in Asia and the developing world. Analysts’ estimates are all over the lot. Moskowitz and Munster (to pick on those two one more time) differ by half a million units. Moskowitz expects Apple to report sales of 1.5 million iPhones; Munster is looking for 1.6 to 2 million. Charles Jade at Ars Technica’s Infinite Loop speculates that the release date of the 3G iPhone may hinge on what the actual number turns out to be. He writes:

With a prediction of 10 million iPhones sold in CY 2008 … Apple must sell, on average, 2.5 million iPhones per quarter. … If the iPhone sold less than 2 million units this quarter, expect a 3G iPhone sooner rather than later. Conversely, if the current shortages are a result of insatiable lust for the greatest phone ever made, expect Apple to milk that cow for all it’s worth before introducing a new model. (link)

When it comes to pricing Apple’s shares, however, Wall Street cares less about the past than the future. The guidance Apple gave last October hinting at a blowout Christmas surprised analysts and help drive the stock to a record $200 a share in December. Although Apple beat everybody’s expectations for the quarter, by the time the first quarter results came out, traders were focused on Q2. And when Apple shocked analysts in January with surprisingly pessimistic guidance, it triggered a 40 point fall.

Investors, some of whom lost millions in the debacle, were furious, and Apple was besieged by angry threats and e-mails. (”Straight out, bald face, criminal lying,” was how one described Apple’s Q2 guidance). Few expect the company to respond such complaints by sweetening its numbers; if anything, it is more likely to offer no guidance at all, especially for a quarter that is so hard to call. Although investors can look forward to a new iPhone and software developers kit in June, back-to-school sales in late summer, and Christmas sales before the end of the year, none of those expectations will show up in Q3 earnings.

If Apple does offers Q3 numbers, they are sure to be, as always, conservative. Apple, more than most companies, likes to make only promises it knows it can keep. But despite recent complaints, the fact is that its results do tend to track its guidance. The spreadsheet at left, produced by a member of TMO’s Apple Finance Board who calls himself “awcabot,” shows guidance and results quarter by quarter since 2002. Past performance is no guarantee, but over that time, revenues have exceeded guidance fairly dependably by an average of 5.7% and earnings by an average of 43.8%.

Take all this for what it’s worth. Apple is a volatile stock, and it’s especially volatile before and after earnings reports. We may not be in for another bungee jump, but for the next few days it could be a bumpy ride.

With less than two weeks before the end of Apple’s March quarter, Shaw Wu of American Technology Research expects the company to shake off the doldrums that are dragging down the rest of the U.S. economy.

“Our sense is that the Mac business is recession proof,” he writes in a report to clients issued Thursday morning. Based on his supply chain checks, Wu sees good news throughout Apple’s (AAPL) product line:

• Rather than the 38 percent year-to-year growth in Macintosh unit sales he had earlier predicted, he now thinks growth may be closer to 42 percent.
• After a strong start and then a lull, he sees Macbook Air sales picking up rapidly. “Customers are attracted to its super thin form factor and do not seem to mind some of its limitations.”
• He’s seeing a bump in iPod sales following the shuffle price cut, and now expects iPods to come in at the high end of his 9.5-10 million unit range (but lower than the Street’s 10.8 consensus).
• He sees a pause in iPhone sales following the well-regarded SDK announcement as customers wait for the June release of iPhone 2.0. He’s modeling 11 million iPhones for the year, slightly ahead of Apple’s 10 million target.
• Falling prices in component parts should sweeten Apple’s March report, due out April 23, and Wu is raising his estimates accordingly. He writes: “For the March quarter, we are now modeling $7 billion and $1.10 in EPS (from $6.9 billion and $1.02) vs. consensus of $6.92 billion and $1.05 and its guidance of $6.8 billion and $0.94.”

Last July, Apple (AAPL) announced that revenue from the iPhone would be recorded in an unusual way. Like Apple Care and Apple TV, iPhone sales would not be booked when the device was sold — as they are for a Mac or an iPod — but spread out over the life of the iPhone (set, somewhat arbitrarily, at two years).

More than seven months have passed and nobody — not the analysts, not the investors, and certainly not Wall Street — has quite wrapped their mind around what this bookkeeping oddity means for Apple’s bottom line. That’s in part because it’s complicated, and in part because Apple hasn’t provided all the data you would need to fully assess its impact.

But as we enter the fourth quarter of iPhone sales, those so-called deferred earnings are adding up, and some professional Apple watchers are starting to realize that their impact could be substantial. In fact, if the company hits its iPhone sales targets, these earnings could become a windfall — a revenue bomb that explodes to the benefit of shareholders.

The rules by which Apple records revenue from iPhone sales are spelled out in the 10-Q filed with the SEC on Aug. 8, 2007:

The Company began shipping Apple TV in March 2007 and iPhone in June 2007. For both Apple TV and iPhone, the Company may provide future unspecified features and additional software products free of charge to customers. Therefore, sales of Apple TV and iPhone handsets are recognized under subscription accounting in accordance with Statement of Position (“SOP”) No. 97-2. The Company recognizes the associated revenue and cost of goods sold on a straight-line basis over the currently-estimated 24-month economic lives of these products. Costs incurred by the Company for engineering, sales, and marketing are expensed as incurred. (link)

Sounds straightforward enough. But because of the way Apple reports its earnings and its costs of goods sold, it’s not so easy to track. And to the dismay of Apple shareholders, the fact that these deferred earnings are piling up seems to have gone right over the heads of the institutional investors who have driven Apple shares down nearly 75 points since December.

One Apple investor who has been beating the deferred revenue drum is Stephen Rosenmen at Seeking Alpha. He’s published three articles on the subject since Apple’s Q1 earnings report, including one posted today in which he takes a stab at estimating how big Apple’s hidden revenue backlog has grown:

To date these deferred revenues have become substantial: current quarter revenue deferred iPhones and iTV (Apple doesn’t separate the two) are $816 million with a total of accumulated deferred revenues of $816 million + $624 million, or 1.4 billion dollars in future revenues to be spread out over approximately the next 7 quarters. That doesn’t include the rest of the also substantial AppleCare and other deferred revenues which together with the iPhone/iTV create a total deferred revenue base of 3.288 billion. (link)

As Rosenmen points out, those $3 billion and change are not going away. They are like backordered Boeing jets or offshore oil reserves — the equivalent of money in the bank. Moreover, the quarterly revenue from iPhone reserves climbs exponentially as iPhone sales grow — each quarterly payment consisting of 1/8 of that quarter’s revenue plus 1/8 of the revenue of each of the previous seven quarters.

The participants at The Mac Observer’s Apple Finance Board have been harping on this theme for weeks now, none more vehemently than the investor who calls himself Dawn Trader. He’s looking for the bomb to explode in eight or nine quarters:

As we move into the latter quarters of FY 2010, even assuming modest growth in unit sales, the iPhone may be delivering as much as $1.00 eps per quarter from current and deferred revenue recognition not including the monthly service revenue from AT&T.

Below the fold, Rosenman’s chart showing the growth of deferred revenues over the past five quarters (the exclamation points are his):

As expected, Apple (AAPL) had a very merry Christmas, posting the best quarter in its 32-year history, with earnings up 58% over the same period last year. (link) But the good news fell on deaf ears in a market roiled by the broader meltdown.

And the company’s conservative projections for the next three months seems to have spooked investors attuned for signs of a coming recession. Apple’s shares, having closed at 155.64, down 3.5% for the day, plunged more than 12% in after-hours trading. At one point the stock hit 136.75, a four-month low.

If this were any other company, the market’s reaction would have seemed bizarre. Except for sales of its iPods, which have nearly flattened out at 22.1 million units, the company’s results were strong across the product line, beating both Apple’s and its analysts’ expectation.

The company posted revenue of 9.6 billion and earnings per share of $1.76 (compared with the consensus of 9.46 billion and EPS of $1.61). Apple sold 2.3 million iPhones in the quarter that ended in December and 2.319 million Macs, an increase of 44% year to year. (Desktop sales grew 53%, five times faster than the rest of the PC industry, per IDC.)

“The Macintosh business is on fire,” COO Tim Cook said during a conference call with analysts (transcript), noting that more than half of the sales of Macs in Apple’s 204 stores were to new customers.

But Apple is not any stock. The market has come to expect extraordinary earnings growth, especially in the Christmas quarter. Traders instead seemed obsessed with Apple’s forward-looking guidance. Although the company projected sales for the March quarter of $6.8 billion, up 29% year to year from 2007, its projected earnings per share of 94 cents were considerably below Wall Street’s average $1.09 forecast.

Quizzed by skeptical analysts, who’ve been low-balled by Apple’s guidance more than once in the past, CFO Peter Oppenheimer seemed almost apologetic. “We’ll leave the economic forecasting to others,” he said. “We are focused on managing our busines

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster confessed that in his five years of covering Apple he’s never seen anything like the market’s reaction to these earnings. “I talked to one of our technical analysts before the call and he told me that the stock was going down to 130 no matter what results Apple posted,” Munster said in a phone interview. “Something bigger is going on in people’s minds. There’s a feeling that stocks need to go back to their 200 day averages as the market corrects itself. This is not a bullish sign for other tech stocks going forward.”

Apple (AAPL) by all accounts had a terrific holiday season. The Apple Stores were packed, and Macs, iPods and iPhones were shipping in record numbers. On Christmas day alone, Steve Jobs announced at Macworld last week, the company sold 20 million songs.

Then the market tanked, and Apple’s shares, having more than doubled in 2007, went into free fall. As the Dow dropped 10 percent, Apple dropped more than 20 percent, from a record high of 202.96 to just over 161.36 last Friday.

This will presumably change on Tuesday, when the company reports its quarterly earnings. If nothing else, day traders are likely to load up on the stock and it options, anticipating that Apple will easily beat its projected $1.42 earnings per share on sales of $9.2 billion — guidance that was considered uncharacteristically unconservative when it was offered three months ago. The street consensus is now $1.62 EPS on $9.47 billion. Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, always the optimist, is looking for $1.73 on $9.73 billion, and as of Jan. 14 was still calling for a price target of 250.

Even Munster doesn’t expect that kind of bounce when earnings are announced after Tuesday’s market close. What he and the other analysts will be tuning in for is the conference call that starts at 5 p.m. ET. (You can listen to the webcast here.) How Apple’s shares behave in the weeks ahead will depend on a handful of key numbers to be revealed in that call. Here are the ones the traders who hang out at The Mac Observer’s Apple Finance Board will be listening for:

• Earnings per share. Beating guidance and meeting the street consensus is a given. The traders here are whispering about $1.80 per share, and even that wouldn’t equal the 73 percent year-to-year earnings growth Apple has achieved over the past four quarters. To do that, it would need $1.94 EPS.
• Forward guidance. Apple tends to be cautious when projecting future earnings, preferring to under-promise and over-deliver. But traders are abnormally sensitive these days to recession signals, and if the company’s forward guidance is too conservative, it could be read as a sign that even Apple is starting to feel the pinch.
• Gross margins. As the AFB moderator who calls himself DawnTreader puts it: “Volume is nice. But high-margin volume is better.” He’s watching how much of each sales dollar flowed to cover operating costs and to the bottom line after manufacturing costs.
• Mac sales. This is the key to the quarter, according to Piper Jaffray’s Munster. “If Apple sells 2.3 million units, it would be a significant positive,” he wrote in a report to clients issued last week. “2.3 million Macs represents 43% y/y growth compared to 28% y/y in Dec-06 and 20% in Dec-05.”
• Deferred revenue. I don’t pretend to fully understand the significance of the tricky way Apple accounts for its iPhone and Apple TV revenue. But this is what DawnTreader says about it: “One of the most important numbers IMHO is the net pick-up in cash exclusive of deferred revenue liabilities. Net income and EPS is impacted by a number of non-cash expenses including depreciation and amortization. How much net cash exclusive of deferred revenue and other liabilities flowed to the balance sheet?” (link)

Got that? Good luck.

One of the unanswered questions about Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone was answered yesterday by COO Tim Cook during the company’s Q4 earnings call with analysts. Responding to a query from Sanford Berstein’s Toni Sacconaghi about how high iPhone sales jumped after the $200 price cut, Cook disclosed a nugget of market data Sacconaghi hadn’t requested:

Timothy D. Cook

Toni, we were very happy with the elasticity that we saw. It enabled us to far surpass our expectation of hitting around a million units cumulatively by the end of the quarter. Some number of these were sold to people that have an intention to unlock and where we don’t know precisely how many people are doing that, our current guess is there is probably 250,000 of the 1.4 million that we sold where people had bought them with the intention of doing that. Many of those happened after the price cut. (full transcript here)

That’s an astonishing figure — higher than any analyst’s prediction and closer to the estimates of the iPhone Dev Team, which has registered half million downloads of its anySim unlock software. It means that more than 17% of the iPhones sold were at risk of being disabled when Apple released its notorious software update 1.1.1. That’s a ton of bricks.

How did Apple arrive at its estimate? Cook didn’t say, but it could have just subtracted the number of AT&T activations from the number of iPhone sold. Even that figure might be too low; it wouldn’t include iPhones activated with AT&T and subsequently unlocked for use with overseas carriers or with T-Mobile in the U.S.

The market for unlocked phones presumably shrank after the bricking incident and the announcement of deals to sell the iPhone in England, Germany and France. Apple says it plans to begin selling the iPhone in Asia in 2008.

In the days before Apple’s (AAPL) quarterly earnings report, several analysts hastily raised their estimates for the company’s Q4 profits — as if fearing a repeat of the last four quarters, when the company beat Wall Street’s targets by anywhere from 22% to 46%.

But it was too little too late. As CNNMoney reported at the close of market today, Apple posted sharply higher sales and earnings in the quarter that ended Sept. 29. With revenue of $6.22 billion and earnings of $1.01 cents per share, Apple blew past not only its target of 65 cents a share, but the analysts’ average estimate of 86 cents.

Analyst Shaw Wu of American Technology Research, who had predicted sales of $6.05 billion, proclaimed it an “all-around strong quarter.”

“Very impressive,” said Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster. “Everything is just clipping along.”

What surprised both analysts the most, however, was Apple’s rosy prediction of a blowout Christmas quarter with sales of $9.2 billion and earnings of $1.41 a share — a sharp contrast to the company’s tradition of extremely cautious forward-looking guidance. “It’s the first time in three quarters they’ve given guidance higher than Wall Street’s,” says Munster. “This could push Street estimates up 25% to 30%.”

Apple’s shares closed at all-time record high of 174.36, up 2.31% for the day, and added another 12 points in after-market trading.

How did Steve Jobs & Co. do it?

In a word: Macintosh. The company sold 2.164 million Macs in the quarter, accounting for 62% of the company’s revenue. Sales were up 34% year to year and set a company record for the fall quarter, thanks in large part to back-to-school promotions.

Macintosh market shares are up sharply in Europe and even Japan, where sales have lagged, and Munster estimates that Apple’s worldwide market share could grow from 3% to 3.2% as a result of the Mac surge. Earlier estimates of Apple’s share of the U.S. computer market put it anywhere from 6.2% to 8.1%.

iPhone sales were also impressive — 1.12 million sold in the quarter, with a burst of sales after the September $200 price drop — but because Apple spreads its cellphone revenue across 24 months, the iPhone impact on Q4 earnings was less significant.

The one place where Apple failed to meet expectations was in iPod sales. The company reported 10.2 million iPods sold in the quarter — a shade fewer than the 10.9 million analysts were expecting.

But where it matters most — profitability — Apple continues to shine. Its gross margin for the quarter was 33.6%, up from 29.2% a year earlier. That’s not even in the same ballpark as Apple’s competitors in the cut-throat computer and cellphone industries.

Steve Jobs has clearly learned how to leverage his company’s advantage in design and ease of use to the benefit of Apple’s investors — and the company’s bottom line.

See Apple’s press release here.

For a transcript of the earnings call, click here.

For background, see Apple Earnings Preview: Firing on All Cylinders

In terms of relations with its users and business partners, the quarter that ended Sept. 30 wasn’t a particularly easy one for Apple (AAPL). There were complaints and lawsuits about the cost of replacing the iPhone’s battery, the surprise $200 price cut, and the software update that “bricked” untold numbers of unlocked phones. Negotiations with Hollywood and the European iPhone partners were awkward and protracted and in the case of NBC ended in an impasse. Consumers who bought the new entry-level skinny iMacs are still complaining about low-quality screens and an unresolved software glitch that’s causing random freezes.

But in terms of sales and profitability, the consensus among analysts is that the fiscal fourth quarter was a terrific quarter for Apple, buoyed by back-to-school specials, switchers fleeing Vista, and a flood of hot new products. The line on Apple heard most often on the Street — in a cliche borrowed from the automotive industry — is that Steve Jobs’ profit-generating machine is firing on all cylinders these days and will handily beat Apple’s guidance numbers (never particularly hard to do, given how conservative those numbers tend to be).

As the chart below the fold shows, the analysts who follow Apple most closely are marching pretty much in lockstep this quarter, with Cupertino’s guidance as the sole outlier. Everybody seems to be expecting the company to report sales of more than 2 million Macs, 10 million iPods and a million iPhones, give or take a few truckloads.

The biggest news, says PiperJaffray’s Gene Munster, is likely to be the disclosure for the first time of how much revenue Apple has been collecting — and amortizing over 24 months — from AT&T (T) for iPhone sales and monthly user fees. The precise terms of Apple’s revenue-sharing arrangements with cellular carriers here and abroad have been, until now, a closely held secret. Munster estimates that the AT&T deal could add $10.6 million to Apple’s bottom line in Q4 alone.

Apple will announce its quarterly earnings on Monday Oct. 22 after the market closes and meet by phone with reporters and analysts an hour later. Click here at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT) to listen in on Apple’s webcast. Fortune’s analysis of the results will be posted here.

Below, as promised, is a sampling of Q4 estimates: