The World Wide Developers Conference (WWDC) that opens Monday morning in San Francisco would be a relatively obscure technical gathering of programmers and IT administrators - with sessions on “Advances in OpenGL” and “What’s New in Objective-C” - were it not for one thing.

Steve Jobs.

The keynote address that Apple’s CEO is scheduled to give starting at 10 am Pacific Time (1 pm ET) is perhaps the second most closely watched event in high tech - after the opening speech Jobs gives every January at Macworld.

In the audience at Moscone West’s main hall will be - in addition to thousands of developers (WWDC sold out for the first time this year) - hundreds of reporters, photographers, TV crews, venture capitalists, CEOs and maybe even a few celebrities from Hollywood and the music world.

What’s Jobs going to talk about? To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, there are known knowns and known unknowns. That is to say, there are things we think we know he’s going to say, and things we know we don’t know. Here’s a rundown:

3G iPhone. Except for a few short sellers on Wall Street, everybody who follows Apple assumes that Jobs will introduce a new iPhone that can send and receive data at so-called third-generation speeds. (In fact, so widespread is this belief that if Jobs doesn’t show up with the thing on Monday, Apple’s (AAPL) shares will get hammered before he leaves the stage.) Almost everything else about iPhone 2.0 are matters of little hard information and intense speculation. Is it thicker or thinner than version 1.0? Will it have a built-in GPS chip so it always knows where it’s at? Will its price be subsidized by AT&T and the overseas carriers? Will it go on sale next week or sometime later? If these questions weren’t still in play, there would be almost nothing to talk about next week.

The SDK. We know Jobs is going to spend some time discussing the so-called software development kit for the iPhone. We know because that’s one of the two main themes of the conference (symbolized by the bizarre image of two Golden Gate Bridges that decorated the e-mail invitation). The other theme is the Macintosh operating system; presumably the two are merging somewhere in Marin County, judging by the doctored photograph. The SDK will finally give third party developers access to the platform Apple has managed to build, as Jupiter Research’s Michael Gartenberg notes, without them. There’s a flood of new software for the iPhone and iPod touch ready for release soon as Apple gives the word - including programs that will allow IT departments, should they be so inclined, to integrate the iPhone into their enterprises the way Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry is today.

.Mac. Even Jobs agrees that Apple’s $99-a-year suite of Internet services (Mail, Backup, iSync, iDisk, etc.) needs an overhaul, if only to match the online applications that Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO) and Microsoft (MSFT) now offer for free. By tracking crumbs of information scattered in recent Apple software releases, some observers believe Jobs is set to replace .Mac with something called Mobile Me, or just plain .Me. Probably the single most effective thing Apple could do improve .Mac would be to emulate Google and give it away.

Another iPhone. Speculation that Jobs would introduce a so-called iPhone nano - a smaller iPhone at a more affordable price - has faded; the smart money has pushed this back to next January. However, as American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu points out, there are good reasons to suspect that Apple will keep the first generation iPhone around, if only to have something to sell in those parts of Latin America - and parts of North America, for that matter - where where 3G coverage is spotty or nonexistent.

New MacBooks. Two weeks ago, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster put the odds of Apple introducing redesigned Mac portables next week at 60%. The other odds he gave - 80% by the end of summer - now seem more like it.

New Touchscreen device. Wu in report to clients this week said he’s learned that work on larger, 4-inch and 7-inch multitouch devices has “gone beyond the prototype stage” at Apple. He goes out on a limb and gives 50-50 odds that one will be introduced at WWDC next week.

Those are the key themes, but there’s plenty more to speculate about. If you want to dig deeper - in a suitably interactive way - come to WWDC with a copy of the 2008 edition of John Siracusa’s Keynote Bingo card, pasted below the fold. The rules are laid out in detail at Ars Technica here, but they’re pretty straightforward: put a token over a square if Jobs mentions the topic or says the word or introduces the speaker during the keynote. Cover five squares in an a row, and you get to stand up and shout Bingo!

Nobody’s won the game yet. This could be the year.

[Moscone West photo courtesy of MacNN.]

Three days ago it seemed as though the world had finally opened up for would-be iPhone developers.

After eight months of pent-up demand, the pieces were in place to begin exploiting the new platform in earnest. Getting hold of the free software developers kit (SDK) was as simple as entering your iTunes name and password. The tools were powerful. The support was rich.

The programmers were “excited,” Apple’s PR department assured us more than once. On Wednesday, the company issued a press release to announce that an astonishing 100,000 copies of the SDK had been downloaded in just four days. Said Apple (AAPL) product marketing VP Phil Schiller: “Developer reaction to the iPhone SDK has been incredible.”

Developer reaction today is somewhat more muted. “The twitterati,” writes Erica Sadun at TUAW, “are reporting widespread disappointment and anger,”

It turns out that it may be easier for a camel to get through the eye of a needle than for a third-party developer to get into Apple’s iPhone Developers Program.

By week’s end, almost everyone who had downloaded the SDK and offered to pay the $99 ($299 for enterprises) to become an official iPhone or iPod touch developer had received Apple’s polite but firm rejection letter:

Dear Registered iPhone Developer, Thank you for expressing interest in the iPhone Developer Program. We have received your enrollment request. As this time, the iPhone Developer Program is available to a limited number of developers and we plan to expand during the beta period. We will contact you again regarding your enrollment status at the appropriate time. Thank you for applying.

What stings for the developers who got what reads like a pink slip is that they know Apple has already let its favorite partners under the tent. In addition to the companies that demoed at the March 6 event (EA, Salesforce, AOL, Epocrates, Sega) Apple quoted a quite a few more the press release (Intuit, Namco, Netsuite, PopCap, Rocket Mobile, Six Apart and THQ Wireless).

“The articles going around saying Apple is ’stalling for time,’ implying that everyone is getting ‘rejection’ letters, are false,” writes David Schroeder, who manages Apple support at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, in a MacRumors Forum. “Select developers and enterprise customers are already included in these programs.”

One the bright side, he adds: “When June arrives and iPhone OS 2.0 is final and the App Store is rolled out, everyone will be able to participate in all developer programs. Also, to be clear, NO ONE has to wait to begin developing and testing their iPhone apps today. Anyone can download the iPhone SDK beta for free, and there is nothing stopping you from developing iPhone apps now.”

Well, not quite. Despite Schroeder’s assurances, U.S. developers have no guarantee they’ll ever be accepted into the program (developers outside the U.S. need not apply at this time). Meanwhile, without Apple’s blessings they are reduced to working on an iPhone or iPod touch simulator, unable to test the devices’ touch screen or accelerometer — key features for game developers.

Besides, who wants to be the second — or 100th — developer to introduce a particular kind of app, especially when the first to market has deep pockets and an inside track at Apple.

“In other news,” writes Daniel Jalkut to TUAW’s Sadun, “it looks like the Jailbreak Developer Program still has open slots, and people are getting approved as I type.”

Catching up on late week Apple (AAPL) news…

Beatles on iTunes in 2008. We’ve heard stories like it before, but this one has a twist. The London Evening Standard reported Saturday that Paul McCartney, who is said to be worth more than $1.65 billion, will begin releasing the Beatles catalog on iTunes in the coming months to help defray the $40 to $60 million it may cost him to get out of his four-year marriage to Heather Mills. A final divorce hearing is set for March 17. But the Standard goes on to say that Mills could could argue that the deal, said to be worth an estimated $400 million, should be included in her settlement. So Sir Paul is going to release a 40-year-old catalog to raise money to pay a settlement that gets bigger as a result of the sale? (link)

iPhone Software Roadmap video. For those who couldn’t make it to Cupertino for the March 6 event, Apple has made the entire presentation — all 1 hour and 18 minutes — available in Quicktime and HD. See Steve Jobs present U.S. smartphone market shares in a pie chart tilted to make the iPhone’s slice look bigger. See Phil Schiller demo push e-mail and remote wipe. Watch EA’s Travis Boatman play a preliminary iPhone version of Will (The Sims) Wright’s Spore. (link)

iPlayer on iPhone. As promised (after getting pressured by Mac fans), the BBC has introduced an iPhone and iPod touch version of its iPlayer, which makes BBC shows available for download over the Internet. (link) It’s still in beta and is only for British residents and for programs within seven days of broadcast. As Saul Hansel points out in Bits, the Beeb got around the fact that the iPhone doesn’t support Flash by reformatting its video into the QuickTime version of H.264 — which is what Google does to put YouTube videos on the device.

One of the advantages Research in Motion’s (RIMM) Blackberry has over Apple (AAPL) is the number of third-party developers writing applications for it: 650 as of last summer, according to RIM co-CEO Mike Lazaridis (link). Except the rogue developers writing unauthorized apps for jailbroken iPhones, there has been only one developer writing native apps for the iPhone: Apple. Everybody else has been making relatively slow, crippled web apps.

All that changed after the iPhone special event on Thursday. Not only did Apple announce that it was giving IT managers everything they’d asked for in an enterprise cellphone — from push e-mail to a kill pill for lost or stolen iPhones (see here) — it released a software developers kit (SDK) that gives third-party programmers the same tools Apple’s inhouse programmers used to write the apps that come with the iPhone.

The message was clear: Apple is going to battle RIM for the hearts and minds of developers, the key element in any successful computing device. As Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster put it in a report to clients this morning: “The platform with the most active developer community will likely win the battle in the mobile computing arena.”

So how are programmers reacting to the new SDK, which was made available as a free download to registered developers? One sign was that Apple’s servers nearly ground to a halt trying to handle the demand. Valleywag’s Jordon Golson reported at 3:20 p.m. Thursday that he could barely get to the info page.

The developers Apple trotted out to demo — EA, Salesforce, AOL, Epocrates, Sega — certainly seemed pleased with what they were able to produce with two weeks lead time (see here). And the consensus among developers polled after the event was that the SDK exceeded expectations. (See, for example, Ephraim Schwartz’s roundup for InfoWorld.)

“The tools look awesome,” wrote John Gruber on Daring Fireball. “Far better and more advanced than what most Mac developers were expecting.”

Gruber believes developers will accept the terms of the business deal the company is offering them — albeit somewhat grudgingly. “Apple’s 30/70 split with developers is steep, but initial reaction from the developers I follow on Twitter seems to be positive. Paul Kafasis of Rogue Amoeba told me via IM, ‘70%? That’s… that’s… livable,’ which seems to sum up the consensus sentiment.”

But “the $99 fee for getting your app listed in the store [per-developer, not per-app] is a no-brainer,” Gruber adds. “This is going to be a gold rush.” (link)

Despite the initial enthusiasm, taking on the BlackBerry in its home turf is not going to be easy. The iPhone may have captured 28% of U.S. smartphone sales last quarter versus RIM’s 41%, as Jobs proudly announced yesterday, but the installed base of BlackBerries in corporations probably approaches 10 million. The only two companies Apple could name that were using the iPhone as an enterprise device were board-of-director buddies Genentech and Disney.

The first obstacle the iPhone faces are the corporate IT departments that would have to support it. IT is heavily invested in RIM across the board, not just for all those BlackBerries, but for the RIM servers that push data to them.

Moreover, the end users Apple is targeting — all those road warriors with little bricks clipped to their belts — have also made an investment of sorts, an investment of time, energy and brainpower training their thumbs on the BlackBerry’s miniature keyboard. Their complaints about the iPhone’s touchscreen echo the contempt PC users raised on DOS had for the original Mac, with its mouse and graphical user interface.

As Piper Jaffray’s Munster points out, Apple lost the OS wars to Microsoft (MSFT) in the 1980s not because it used a mouse, but because it lacked the support of a robust developer community. In the mobile OS wars to come, Steve Jobs seems determined not to make that mistake again.

As predicted, the version of the long-awaited iPhone software developers kit (SDK) being released today is still in beta, or test mode. According to Steve Jobs, the finished software will be shipped to developers as a free software update in June. (See Apple’s press release here.)

These and other details of the so-called iPhone software roadmap were revealed today at an Apple (AAPL) special event on the company’s Cupertino campus.

After several demonstrations of what third-party developers were able to create with only two weeks notice — including a preliminary version of Electronic Arts’ Spore — Jobs spelled out the terms by which iPhone programs will be distributed.

• The developer picks the price and keeps 70% of the revenue, paid monthly
• There’s a one-time $99 iPhone developers fee
• Most developers will pick “free,” says Jobs, and Apple will host their software for free
• Apple distributes the software on the iTunes store
• Apple absorbs the credit card and hosting fees
• There are some apps Apple will not distribute (porn, malware, duh)
• iPhone update 2.0, due in June, will contain the enterprise support and the SDK
• iPod touch will also get these features, but for a “nominal” fee to be set in June
• Kleiner Perkins has created a $100 million iFund to support iPhone developers

Finally! Eight months after it was introduced, the iPhone is finally getting the e-mail service it deserves. At the Apple (AAPL) special event today, Steve Jobs introduced and Phil Schiller demonstrated the next iPhone update, one that has everything on your IT department’s wishlist:

• Push e-mail
• Push calendars
• Push contacts
• Global address lists
• Cisco IPsec PVN
• Certificates and identities
• WPA2/802.1x
• Enforced security policies
• Device configuration
• Remote wipe, in case the iPhone is lost or stolen

In the demo, Microsoft (MSFT) Exchange appears on the e-mail configuration panel, right above .Mac.

No word yet on the live blogs when this becomes available, but I’m not waiting. I’m putting my request to replace my BlackBerry with an iPhone today.

UPDATE: I’ve already been turned down. “Unfortunately, no,” was the reply. “The iPhone is still not a standard device.” Anyway, it looks like all this enterprise stuff won’t be ready until Apple ships firmware update 2.0, some time in June.

On Thursday, before an audience of industry analysts, tech reporters and invited guests, Apple (AAPL) will unfold its long-awaited “iPhone software roadmap.” The event starts at 10 a.m. PT (1 p.m. ET) in Building 4, Town Hall on the company’s Cupertino campus.

So what’s going to happen? Let’s review what we know and what’s been rumored.

What we know:

• The “roadmap” will cover the iPhone software developers kit (SDK) that Steve Jobs had hoped to have in developers’ hands last month. If what is revealed is a beta SDK, as rumored, there will widespread disappointment.
• Apple also promises “exciting new enterprise features,” which has got the attention of IT managers and the employees who have to work with IT to get corporate support for the iPhone.
• The SDK will almost certainly not include support for Adobe Flash — one of the current limitations of Safari on the iPhone — given that Steve Jobs declared, at Tuesday’s shareholders meeting, that it”performs too slow to be useful” on the iPhone.
• That Jobs has promised “a lot of apps out there this summer,” including games.
• That native iPhone apps will be written in Cocoa, Apple’s proprietary development environment. When asked about a blogging application for the iPhone at the shareholders meeting, Jobs told the shareholder that if Apple doesn’t address his needs, he should learn Cocoa and write his own app.

What has been rumored:

• That the SDK runs only on Macs running OS X Leopard and is facilitated through an enhanced version of XCode made available to members of Apple Developer Connection. (see here)
• That iPhone applications will be allowed to use both EDGE and WiFi for data. (see here)
• That Apple will have the final say on which commercial iPhone applications are sold, will distribute them through iTunes, and will take a small cut of the proceeds. (see here)
• That iPhone freeware is unlikely to be subject to much if any scrutiny by Apple. (see here)
• That this SDK will not support applications that access peripherals through the iPhone dock connector. (see here)
• That the final version will be released at the World Wide Developers Conference in June. (see here)
• That there’ll be lots of demonstrations of business applications from the likes of IBM (IBM), Salesforce (CRM) and Microsoft (MSFT). (We’ve already been contacted for pre-SDK coverage from several firms that make apps for business, including SAP.)

How much of this will come true? We’ll find out soon enough. Jon Fortt will be covering it for Fortune.com. Several Apple sites will be liveblogging from Town Hall, including Engadget, Gizmodo and Ars Technica’s Infinite Loop.

There’s growing speculation among Apple (AAPL) watchers that the iPhone software developer’s kit (SDK) that Steve Jobs said he hoped to have ready before the end of February — and is the headliner of the “special event” scheduled for March 6 — may still be in beta and might not arrive until the World Wide Developer’s Conference some time in June.

This would be a surprise, although probably not the “element of surprise” that COO Tim Cook invoked when he declined to answer questions about the SDK at Wednesday’s Goldman Sachs symposium. (see here)

What’s the source of this speculation? Some of it is pure gossip, like the item the usually reliable Erica Sadun at TUAW passed along earlier this month:

Speaking of the rumor trickle, the big one that I’m hearing right now is about big SDK delays — perhaps all the way to WWDC (which makes us think that the big Apple show coming up may not be for the iPhone). It sounds like putting together a public SDK, documented and tested for third-party use, is a huge, huge project, and that Apple is busy hiring people to make this happen. (link)

Some of it seems to be coming, albeit second-hand, from programmers who actually laid hands on preliminary versions of the SDK, like this report in MacRumors Thursday (pointing out an item in the Italian website setteB.it):

SetteB.it is not a typical rumor source, but this information is consistent with earlier Page 2 rumors and direct observations we’ve heard from individuals who have seen early versions of the SDK, saying that it appeared to offer just the “bare essentials” at that time. (link)

Some of it is just tea-leaf reading, like Ted Landau’s close scrutiny of Apple’s iPhone Software Roadmap invitation in The Mac Observer.

Why use the word “roadmap” at all? Why not simply say: “Please join us to learn about the iPhone SDK” or “Please join us for the unveiling of the iPhone SDK”? (link)

Some of it is Fake Steve Jobs spinning fiction, as he usually does, but often around a kernel of truth:

Look, I’ve gotta admit, I’m pretty disappointed with the developer tools engineers. These guys have really let me down. We were supposed to have the iPhone SDK out by February and let’s be honest — it ain’t gonna happen. … Damn you, engineers! If I could run this company without you, I would do it in a heartbeat! We’d have nothing but PR and marketing and advertising people. (link)

Whatever SDK beta meme’s provenance, some investors have already figured it into their planning. The smart money at TMO’s Apple Finance Board is betting that come March 6, as Tommo_UK puts it, …

… the big news will be software partners signing up, big names like IBM, SAP, Salesforce, Microsoft, etc.. some with demos etc. A beta of the SDK will be released to allow smaller developers to play, but it will run in emulation mode on the Mac rather than the iPhone.

The main SDK will be released concurrent with a new iPhone or iPhone OS 2.0 instead of 1.1.6 or whatever, and at that point the entire development community, rather than just the “chosen few” keynote partners will be able to write and sell applications for the iPhone. (link)

UPDATE: One more datapoint. Jeremy Horwitz at iLounge, citing unnamed “sources familiar” with Apple’s SDK plans, has published an authoritative-sounding rundown of how Apple plans to restrict third-party developers writing apps for the iPhone and iPod touch. (Apple would have to approve all apps, for example, and would prevent interfacing directly with dock-based accessories.) He adds that his sources say this about what’s coming next week:

Apple will use the March 6 event to tout the benefits of the SDK to selected media, analysts, and developers, releasing an incomplete, “beta” version of the kit that was originally promised for February. The actual kit will now ship in June, coinciding with Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference event in San Francisco. (see here)

UPDATE 2.0: Apple released beta version of its SDK today. The final release is due in June. See here.

“Some exciting enterprise features.” Those were the magic words in the e-mail that Apple (AAPL) analysts and journalists received Wednesday from the company’s media events department.

The invitation for a March 6 “special event,” illustrated with a map and directions to the company’s Cupertino campus, was music to the ears of software developers, who’ve been itching to get their hands on the SDK (software developers kit) ever since Steve Jobs promised it back in October.

It’s not clear whether the SDK will be released that day or merely promoted to the press, but clearly the thing is close to ready. Apple’s share prices jumped a point or so on the news.

What caught my eye, however, were those four magic words — and the blue box on the invitation roadmap labeled ENTERPRISE. The one thing that’s kept me, and many of my colleagues, from buying an iPhone (rather than, in my case, borrowing one) has been the reluctance of our IT department to support any mobile that doesn’t support Microsoft Exchange Server. (They also insist on a way to remotely kill a lost or stolen phone, but one thing at a time.) A smartphone (or a smart iPod) that doesn’t deliver my office e-mail just doesn’t cut it.

That’s what “enterprise” means to me. And if Apple or one of its partners delivers it next Thursday, I’ll finally be ready to plunk down my $399.

For more on the special event, see the traffic on Techmeme (here) and the discussion on TMO’s Apple Finance Board (here).

The iPhone’s software developer’s kit (SDK) was supposed to be the answer to the device’s many shortcomings: no corporate e-mail support, no cut-and-paste, no native games, etc.

Now, with only five business days before Apple’s (AAPL) self-imposed February deadline, Arik Hesseldahl reports in Byte of the Apple that it ain’t gonna happen — at least not on deadline. He writes:

I’m hearing from one source that its going to be late. I’m not yet hearing any reasons why, and it’s sounding like the official release date could slide by anywhere from one to three weeks. (link)

Hesseldahl, it should be noted, was one of the Businessweek reporters who broke the SDK story back in October, one day before Steve Jobs announced that it was coming in the Hot News section of Apple’s website.

So what’s the hang-up? Hesseldahl doesn’t speculate, except to say that the situation is “fluid” and that there are “a lot of moving parts to something this complex.”

But to get a feel for what’s involved, you don’t have to look any further than Jobs’ Oct. 17 letter, the one that starts:

Let me just say it: We want native third party applications on the iPhone, and we plan to have an SDK in developers’ hands in February.

Jobs goes on to say:

It will take until February to release an SDK because we’re trying to do two diametrically opposed things at once–provide an advanced and open platform to developers while at the same time protect iPhone users from viruses, malware, privacy attacks, etc. This is no easy task. … As our phones become more powerful, these malicious programs will become more dangerous. And since the iPhone is the most advanced phone ever, it will be a highly visible target. Some companies are already taking action. Nokia, for example, is not allowing any applications to be loaded onto some of their newest phones unless they have a digital signature that can be traced back to a known developer. While this makes such a phone less than “totally open,” we believe it is a step in the right direction. We are working on an advanced system which will offer developers broad access to natively program the iPhone’s amazing software platform while at the same time protecting users from malicious programs. We think a few months of patience now will be rewarded by many years of great third party applications running on safe and reliable iPhones. (link)

If Cupertino’s best developers haven’t cracked that nut in the four and a half months since, it could take them more than Hesseldahl’s one to three extra weeks. We’ll find out soon enough.